Maxwell Class AAAAA Preseason Projections

By Loren Maxwell

Aug 13, 2015

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team	Region	Rating	Qtr	Semi	Finals	Champion	Odds
Northside (Warner Robins)	2 - AAAAA	80.55	718,548	554,120	397,838	290,056	2.45
Allatoona	5 - AAAAA	74.94	723,424	394,524	236,266	132,601	6.54
Ware County	3 - AAAAA	75.55	542,412	373,170	216,155	121,832	7.21
Gainesville	8 - AAAAA	73.52	657,487	372,691	181,583	98,035	9.20
Kell	7 - AAAAA	72.89	424,124	277,317	158,455	72,819	12.73
Coffee	3 - AAAAA	72.34	430,631	269,445	139,662	63,387	14.78
Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	69.41	558,702	262,868	132,119	48,955	19.43
Creekside	6 - AAAAA	71.39	353,616	217,637	107,279	46,167	20.66
Mays	6 - AAAAA	69.58	278,060	157,959	69,793	27,404	35.49
Stephenson	6 - AAAAA	68.06	300,254	166,189	71,212	24,933	39.11
South Paulding	5 - AAAAA	66.40	397,320	153,730	59,944	18,718	52.42
Dalton	7 - AAAAA	65.62	190,297	89,019	32,338	9,878	100.24
Warner Robins	2 - AAAAA	65.17	169,602	81,165	29,021	8,159	121.56
Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAAA	62.76	302,554	99,042	30,964	7,616	130.30
East Paulding	5 - AAAAA	63.33	252,949	81,775	25,877	6,574	151.11
Houston County	2 - AAAAA	64.46	148,438	68,229	23,267	6,131	162.11
Harris County	1 - AAAAA	61.67	282,589	87,027	25,553	5,611	177.22
Glynn Academy	3 - AAAAA	61.33	100,715	39,160	10,553	2,290	435.68
Jones County	2 - AAAAA	61.17	82,092	31,551	8,463	1,780	560.80
Alexander	5 - AAAAA	60.05	127,903	33,140	8,432	1,683	593.18
Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAA	57.89	130,420	28,408	6,255	1,058	944.18
Lakeside (Evans)	2 - AAAAA	59.54	52,565	18,387	4,493	861	1,160.44
Brunswick	3 - AAAAA	58.76	61,098	20,320	4,712	856	1,167.22
Lanier	8 - AAAAA	56.12	97,071	18,963	3,735	530	1,885.79
New Manchester	5 - AAAAA	56.73	57,458	11,649	2,260	344	2,905.98
Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	57.64	27,025	7,861	1,588	275	3,635.36
Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	54.38	68,100	11,584	2,012	229	4,365.81
Sequoyah	7 - AAAAA	55.94	29,492	7,792	1,336	198	5,049.51
Drew	4 - AAAAA	53.94	56,845	8,970	1,374	188	5,318.15
Flowery Branch	8 - AAAAA	53.52	54,564	8,785	1,404	154	6,492.51
Hiram	5 - AAAAA	54.49	28,416	4,923	783	108	9,258.26
M. L. King	6 - AAAAA	54.25	18,087	4,087	619	96	10,415.67
Creekview	7 - AAAAA	54.32	20,816	4,970	728	82	12,194.12
Northgate	4 - AAAAA	52.37	42,387	6,011	791	79	12,657.23
Starr's Mill	4 - AAAAA	52.02	34,196	4,770	618	68	14,704.88
Villa Rica	5 - AAAAA	53.56	21,380	3,317	497	67	14,924.37
Southwest DeKalb	6 - AAAAA	52.97	12,095	2,508	343	37	27,026.03
LaGrange	1 - AAAAA	48.61	43,546	4,455	408	31	32,257.06
Tri-Cities	6 - AAAAA	53.28	9,160	2,048	293	29	34,481.76
Sprayberry	7 - AAAAA	51.12	8,969	1,707	197	26	38,460.54
Rome	7 - AAAAA	50.88	7,694	1,427	157	13	76,922.08
Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	49.52	15,497	1,713	160	9	111,110.11
Evans	2 - AAAAA	49.67	2,496	388	41	7	142,856.14
Heritage (Conyers)	8 - AAAAA	46.58	7,686	647	59	5	199,999.00
Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	47.52	8,558	851	82	4	249,999.00
Statesboro	3 - AAAAA	49.41	3,768	618	59	3	333,332.33
Luella	4 - AAAAA	46.74	7,546	649	49	3	333,332.33
Effingham County	3 - AAAAA	46.41	1,371	169	20	3	333,332.33
Riverwood	7 - AAAAA	46.00	1,776	222	20	2	499,999.00
Paulding County	5 - AAAAA	48.24	2,999	321	27	1	999,999.00
Salem	8 - AAAAA	44.82	3,848	268	21	1	999,999.00
McIntosh	4 - AAAAA	43.94	2,567	184	11	1	999,999.00
Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	44.30	2,916	203	8	1	999,999.00
Cambridge	7 - AAAAA	43.95	890	92	8	1	999,999.00
Cass	7 - AAAAA	43.27	477	62	6	1	999,999.00
Miller Grove	6 - AAAAA	46.68	1,785	227	18	-	-
Shaw	1 - AAAAA	39.98	6,780	295	16	-	-
Loganville	8 - AAAAA	42.75	1,795	123	5	-	-
Richmond Hill	3 - AAAAA	44.79	756	89	3	-	-
Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAA	41.40	1,009	57	3	-	-
Richmond Academy	2 - AAAAA	44.43	297	34	3	-	-
Forsyth Central	7 - AAAAA	39.85	205	16	3	-	-
Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAAA	33.66	1,120	31	1	-	-
South Effingham	3 - AAAAA	43.04	357	29	-	-	-
Ola	4 - AAAAA	38.60	281	12	-	-	-
Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	35.44	41	-	-	-	-
Columbus	1 - AAAAA	22.45	20	-	-	-	-
Hardaway	1 - AAAAA	21.82	11	-	-	-	-
Druid Hills	6 - AAAAA	35.20	8	-	-	-	-
Grovetown	2 - AAAAA	37.34	7	-	-	-	-
Banneker	6 - AAAAA	35.59	7	-	-	-	-
Dunwoody	6 - AAAAA	32.62	7	-	-	-	-
Apalachee	8 - AAAAA	31.40	6	-	-	-	-
Lithia Springs	5 - AAAAA	33.71	4	-	-	-	-
Chapel Hill	5 - AAAAA	33.51	4	-	-	-	-
River Ridge	7 - AAAAA	32.24	2	-	-	-	-
Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	30.41	1	-	-	-	-
Morrow	4 - AAAAA	26.96	1	-	-	-	-
Greenbrier	2 - AAAAA	28.61	-	-	-	-	-
Bradwell Institute	3 - AAAAA	28.06	-	-	-	-	-
North Springs	7 - AAAAA	23.00	-	-	-	-	-
North Atlanta	7 - AAAAA	21.58	-	-	-	-	-
Forest Park	4 - AAAAA	20.83	-	-	-	-	-
Cross Creek	2 - AAAAA	19.93	-	-	-	-	-
Clarkston	6 - AAAAA	-6.18	-	-	-	-	-

Most Likely Region Seeding

Each region is shown with the most likely region seeding orders and odds of each team making the playoffs.

1-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
13.1%	Carver (Columbus)	Harris County	LaGrange	Shaw
12.5%	Harris County	Carver (Columbus)	LaGrange	Shaw
6.7%	Harris County	Carver (Columbus)	LaGrange	Northside (Columbus)
6.7%	Carver (Columbus)	Harris County	LaGrange	Northside (Columbus)

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Harris County	1.70	46.8%	39.2%	11.4%	2.1%	99.6%	0.00
Carver (Columbus)	1.77	44.9%	36.6%	15.3%	2.9%	99.6%	0.00
LaGrange	3.05	7.4%	19.0%	45.0%	20.6%	92.0%	0.09
Shaw	4.20	0.8%	3.7%	18.8%	42.3%	65.6%	0.53
Northside (Columbus)	4.88	0.2%	1.4%	8.1%	24.1%	33.7%	1.97
Columbus	6.12	0.0%	0.1%	0.8%	4.7%	5.6%	16.91
Hardaway	6.29	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	3.3%	3.9%	24.64

2-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
5.2%	Northside (Warner Robins)	Warner Robins	Houston County	Jones County
4.9%	Northside (Warner Robins)	Houston County	Warner Robins	Jones County
4.4%	Northside (Warner Robins)	Warner Robins	Jones County	Houston County
3.9%	Northside (Warner Robins)	Warner Robins	Houston County	Lakeside (Evans)

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Northside (Warner Robins)	1.34	76.4%	16.3%	5.1%	1.6%	99.5%	0.01
Warner Robins	3.19	8.9%	28.0%	25.0%	19.3%	81.2%	0.23
Houston County	3.33	7.6%	25.0%	25.0%	20.8%	78.4%	0.28
Jones County	3.80	4.2%	17.1%	22.3%	24.0%	67.5%	0.48
Lakeside (Evans)	4.20	2.8%	11.9%	17.9%	23.0%	55.6%	0.80
Evans	5.98	0.1%	1.4%	3.7%	8.0%	13.2%	6.60
Richmond Academy	6.85	0.0%	0.3%	1.0%	2.8%	4.1%	23.45
Grovetown	7.85	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%	183.91
Greenbrier	8.87	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4,404.29
Cross Creek	9.60	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	111,110.11

3-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
9.2%	Ware County	Coffee	Glynn Academy	Brunswick
8.1%	Ware County	Coffee	Brunswick	Glynn Academy
7.8%	Coffee	Ware County	Glynn Academy	Brunswick
6.7%	Coffee	Ware County	Brunswick	Glynn Academy

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Ware County	1.64	53.4%	33.2%	10.1%	2.7%	99.4%	0.01
Coffee	1.96	37.5%	38.4%	16.5%	5.9%	98.3%	0.02
Glynn Academy	3.48	5.5%	15.5%	33.6%	26.5%	81.0%	0.23
Brunswick	3.88	3.2%	10.7%	27.4%	30.6%	72.0%	0.39
Statesboro	5.69	0.2%	1.3%	5.9%	14.0%	21.3%	3.69
Effingham County	6.23	0.1%	0.5%	3.1%	9.1%	12.9%	6.77
Richmond Hill	6.57	0.0%	0.3%	2.1%	6.5%	9.0%	10.09
South Effingham	6.87	0.0%	0.2%	1.3%	4.5%	6.0%	15.74
Bradwell Institute	8.67	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	1,561.50

4-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1.7%	Stockbridge	Mundy's Mill	Drew	Northgate
1.5%	Stockbridge	Northgate	Mundy's Mill	Drew
1.4%	Stockbridge	Mundy's Mill	Northgate	Drew
1.4%	Stockbridge	Mundy's Mill	Drew	Starr's Mill

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Div A
Mundy's Mill	2.19	38.9%	26.2%	18.1%	11.3%	70.0%	0.43
Drew	2.75	22.3%	23.8%	23.7%	18.3%	51.5%	0.94
Northgate	2.89	19.6%	23.1%	22.3%	20.1%	46.0%	1.17
Starr's Mill	3.08	15.8%	19.8%	23.5%	24.2%	40.5%	1.47
McIntosh	4.30	3.3%	7.0%	12.0%	24.2%	10.1%	8.87
Morrow	6.21	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	1.5%	0.1%	1,840.62
Forest Park	6.58	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	19,606.84
Div B
Stockbridge	1.21	83.8%	12.6%	2.6%	0.7%	96.8%	0.03
Dutchtown	3.33	5.6%	29.1%	23.3%	19.0%	28.6%	2.49
Luella	3.66	3.9%	20.6%	23.9%	21.5%	20.4%	3.91
Union Grove	3.69	4.3%	20.6%	21.5%	21.2%	20.7%	3.83
Woodland (Stockbridge)	4.13	1.9%	12.4%	19.8%	22.6%	12.1%	7.28
Ola	4.98	0.4%	4.7%	8.9%	14.9%	3.2%	29.77

5-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
4.3%	Allatoona	South Paulding	East Paulding	Alexander
3.1%	Allatoona	South Paulding	Alexander	East Paulding
2.9%	Allatoona	South Paulding	East Paulding	New Manchester
2.8%	Allatoona	East Paulding	South Paulding	Alexander

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Allatoona	1.61	62.2%	22.9%	9.3%	3.6%	98.1%	0.02
South Paulding	2.78	20.3%	31.3%	21.4%	13.3%	86.3%	0.16
East Paulding	3.50	10.1%	21.1%	24.5%	18.6%	74.2%	0.35
Alexander	4.38	4.0%	11.8%	17.9%	20.8%	54.6%	0.83
New Manchester	5.17	1.9%	6.2%	11.5%	16.4%	36.1%	1.77
Hiram	5.79	0.8%	3.4%	7.6%	12.3%	24.1%	3.15
Villa Rica	5.98	0.6%	2.7%	6.2%	11.0%	20.5%	3.89
Paulding County	7.19	0.1%	0.5%	1.7%	3.9%	6.2%	15.23
Lithia Springs	9.26	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1,944.53
Chapel Hill	9.35	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2,251.25

6-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
4.2%	Creekside	Stephenson	Mays	Carver (Atlanta)
3.2%	Mays	Stephenson	Creekside	Carver (Atlanta)
3.2%	Stephenson	Creekside	Mays	Carver (Atlanta)
3.1%	Stephenson	Mays	Creekside	Carver (Atlanta)

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Div A
Stephenson	1.35	73.6%	19.9%	4.9%	1.4%	90.5%	0.10
M. L. King	2.73	12.6%	33.4%	29.9%	17.5%	34.3%	1.91
Southwest DeKalb	2.90	10.1%	28.7%	32.2%	20.6%	29.0%	2.45
Miller Grove	3.58	3.5%	15.9%	25.8%	35.0%	11.4%	7.75
Druid Hills	5.13	0.1%	1.4%	4.2%	14.4%	0.5%	186.79
Dunwoody	5.31	0.1%	0.8%	3.0%	11.1%	0.3%	374.52
Clarkston	-	-	-	-	-	0.0%	-
Div B
Creekside	1.68	51.2%	33.9%	11.2%	3.5%	89.3%	0.12
Mays	1.89	38.8%	39.5%	15.6%	5.6%	84.0%	0.19
Carver (Atlanta)	3.17	6.2%	14.9%	39.7%	34.0%	36.9%	1.71
Tri-Cities	3.45	3.7%	11.4%	31.9%	42.4%	23.5%	3.25
Banneker	4.81	0.0%	0.3%	1.7%	14.5%	0.3%	331.78

7-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
3.9%	Kell	Dalton	Sequoyah	Creekview
3.2%	Kell	Dalton	Creekview	Sequoyah
2.6%	Kell	Dalton	Sequoyah	Rome
2.4%	Kell	Creekview	Dalton	Sequoyah

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Div A
Dalton	1.54	63.8%	23.7%	8.5%	3.1%	91.7%	0.09
Sequoyah	2.80	15.7%	29.8%	26.1%	18.1%	55.5%	0.80
Creekview	2.99	13.1%	24.9%	27.9%	21.5%	48.8%	1.05
Rome	3.53	6.2%	16.7%	25.2%	29.1%	31.3%	2.20
Cass	4.74	1.1%	4.5%	10.0%	20.6%	7.0%	13.23
River Ridge	6.08	0.0%	0.3%	1.5%	5.1%	0.4%	258.47
Woodland (Cartersville)	6.32	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	2.6%	0.1%	692.00
Div B
Kell	1.15	87.6%	10.7%	1.4%	0.3%	97.8%	0.02
Sprayberry	2.77	7.4%	42.1%	26.7%	15.0%	34.2%	1.93
Riverwood	3.44	2.4%	21.6%	29.6%	26.3%	16.4%	5.11
Cambridge	3.68	1.9%	17.2%	25.3%	28.8%	11.9%	7.37
Forsyth Central	4.30	0.7%	8.2%	16.0%	25.8%	4.8%	19.79
North Springs	6.23	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	2.3%	0.0%	3,366.00
North Atlanta	6.44	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	1.4%	0.0%	6,665.67

8-AAAAA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
6.1%	Gainesville	Lanier	Clarke Central	Flowery Branch
4.9%	Gainesville	Lanier	Flowery Branch	Clarke Central
4.5%	Gainesville	Clarke Central	Lanier	Flowery Branch
4.4%	Gainesville	Flowery Branch	Lanier	Clarke Central

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Gainesville	1.20	84.5%	11.8%	2.7%	0.7%	99.8%	0.00
Lanier	3.23	6.4%	32.7%	25.2%	17.0%	81.4%	0.23
Clarke Central	3.62	4.8%	24.0%	25.0%	19.8%	73.5%	0.36
Flowery Branch	3.87	3.3%	20.6%	23.4%	21.3%	68.6%	0.46
Heritage (Conyers)	5.59	0.5%	5.0%	9.7%	14.9%	30.2%	2.31
Salem	6.13	0.3%	3.0%	6.5%	11.1%	20.9%	3.79
Loganville	6.68	0.1%	1.6%	4.0%	7.8%	13.5%	6.40
Winder-Barrow	7.11	0.1%	1.1%	2.9%	5.8%	9.9%	9.11
Cedar Shoals	8.43	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	1.2%	1.8%	55.03
Apalachee	9.14	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%	217.53

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket is seeded from the most likely region seeds and assumes every favorite wins.