Maxwell 2018 season summary: And that’s why they play the games . . .

December 12, 2018 - Atlanta, Ga: Colquitt County quarterback Jaycee Harden (4) is hit hard after a pass attempt by Milton defenders Allen Walker (9, left) and Paul Tchio (57) in the fourth quarter during the Class AAAAAAA State Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium Wednesday, December 12, 2018, in Atlanta. Milton won 14-13. (JASON GETZ/SPECIAL TO THE AJC)

By Loren Maxwell

Dec 13, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the player roster or coaching staff.

Interesting results:

- What an interesting finish to a rather staid season -- After so much stability at the top for the majority of the season, there was little to help us anticipate some significant upsets this past weekend, specifically Milton’s defeat of Colquitt County, Bainbridge’s victory over Warner Robins, Heard County’s surprise over Rockmart, and Clinch County’s downing of Irwin County. In fact two of those were rematches of lopsided regular season losses.

How big were those upsets? If all four of those games were to be played again, the computer would still pick the same favorites (albeit to a lesser degree this time!).

- Colquitt County’s loss dropped them below a rating of 100 and removed them not only from consideration of this season’s national champion, but from the discussion of whether this was the best Packer team ever.

However, four state champions, and 12 other schools, put out their best product ever this season:

Current						Previous
Season	School	Rating	Record	Playoffs	Coach	Season	Rating	Record	Playoffs	Coach
2018	Blessed Trinity	86.37	15-0-0	Champ	Tim McFarlin	2014	79.07	13-1-0	SF	Tim McFarlin
2018	Cedar Grove	79.92	14-1-0	Champ	Jimmy Smith	1990	79.72	11-1-0	2nd	Harry Newberry
2018	Lee County	88.37	15-0-0	Champ	Dean Fabrizio	2005	83.41	10-2-0	2nd	David Johnson
2018	Milton	85.35	13-2-0	Champ	Adam Clack	2014	82.14	11-2-0	QF	Howie DeCristofaro

- Bainbridge was not only one of the big surprises this past week, but in the playoffs in general. However, of the 2,296 games played, the computer found their 23-0 loss to Crisp County to be the most unlikely result of the entire season.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.14%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,130 of 2,296 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.77%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.93 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.16

By Class

AAAAAAA				AAAAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Colquitt County	14-1	95.18	1	Lee County	15-0	88.37
2	Milton	13-2	85.35	2	Northside (Warner Robins)	9-6	66.73
3	Parkview	11-1	85.16	3	Creekview	12-1	63.64
4	Archer	11-3	84.09	4	Dacula	11-3	63.09
5	Grayson	10-3	81.35	5	Valdosta	8-5	63.01
6	North Gwinnett	10-3	79.39	6	Allatoona	8-4	57.51
7	Lowndes	10-4	79.28	7	Sequoyah	10-3	55.57
8	Hillgrove	12-1	78.88	8	Coffee	9-4	54.57
9	Tift County	8-5	76.59	9	Lanier	10-4	54.52
10	Walton	10-2	75.26	10	Harrison	9-3	54.45
11	McEachern	8-4	73.28	11	Glynn Academy	7-5	51.76
12	Camden County	7-4	71.85	12	Johns Creek	9-2	50.63
13	Roswell	9-2	69.96	13	Habersham Central	7-5	46.85
14	Mill Creek	8-4	69.23	14	Creekside	8-4	46.33
15	Marietta	5-6	67.56	15	Centennial	7-4	43.89

AAAAA				AAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Warner Robins	13-2	77.86	1	Blessed Trinity	15-0	86.37
2	Rome	13-1	76.70	2	Cartersville	14-1	78.70
3	Dutchtown	12-1	70.52	3	Mary Persons	12-1	77.26
4	Buford	10-3	68.93	4	Marist	11-3	76.88
5	Bainbridge	10-5	67.49	5	St. Pius X	10-2	73.40
6	Stockbridge	12-2	65.40	6	Troup	12-2	70.95
7	Jones County	8-3	62.34	7	Pickens	11-1	56.58
8	Veterans	8-3	59.85	8	North Oconee	9-3	56.39
9	Wayne County	11-1	59.10	9	Cairo	10-3	56.20
10	Kell	9-3	56.59	10	Eastside	12-1	55.54
11	Ware County	8-4	54.91	11	Flowery Branch	8-3	55.10
12	Carrollton	10-3	54.45	12	Ridgeland	8-4	54.23
13	Clarke Central	8-5	52.44	13	Baldwin	7-6	54.23
14	Cedar Shoals	8-4	51.23	14	Sandy Creek	7-4	53.75
15	Locust Grove	5-6	48.98	15	Cedartown	5-6	53.62

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Cedar Grove	14-1	79.92	1	Rockmart	14-1	70.00
2	Peach County	12-3	72.56	2	Heard County	13-2	68.10
3	Monroe Area	12-1	65.68	3	Callaway	11-3	64.90
4	Pierce County	13-1	64.96	4	Dublin	11-2	63.37
5	Calhoun	13-1	63.72	5	Brooks County	9-3	59.39
6	Westminster (Atlanta)	8-5	61.45	6	Fitzgerald	10-4	58.31
7	Benedictine	11-2	58.84	7	Washington County	10-3	58.03
8	Greater Atlanta Christian	9-3	58.81	8	Hapeville Charter	10-2	57.77
9	Pace Academy	6-5	56.03	9	Bremen	9-3	57.69
10	Dawson County	10-2	54.49	10	Dodge County	10-2	56.16
11	Lovett	6-6	53.71	11	Rabun County	11-2	53.97
12	North Hall	9-3	50.65	12	Thomasville	7-5	52.44
13	Westside (Macon)	8-4	49.50	13	Jefferson County	10-3	50.23
14	Jefferson	8-3	48.67	14	Swainsboro	9-3	49.46
15	Crisp County	7-4	48.39	15	Vidalia	9-2	46.75

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Irwin County	13-1	65.34	1	Eagle's Landing Christian	13-1	65.59
2	Clinch County	13-1	65.26	2	Athens Academy	13-1	55.49
3	Pelham	12-1	51.66	3	Prince Avenue Christian	11-2	51.01
4	Marion County	12-1	50.69	4	Savannah Christian	11-2	47.36
5	Commerce	10-3	44.78	5	Calvary Day	10-2	41.48
6	Mount Zion (Carroll)	10-2	42.54	6	George Walton Academy	8-3	39.80
7	Charlton County	8-4	39.80	7	Hebron Christian Academy	6-6	37.18
8	Schley County	9-3	39.59	8	North Cobb Christian	10-2	36.58
9	Mitchell County	8-3	38.01	9	Wesleyan	7-5	35.01
10	Emanuel County Institute	7-5	33.88	10	Fellowship Christian	10-2	34.10
11	Greene County	9-3	29.44	11	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	8-4	33.42
12	Dooly County	7-5	28.77	12	Darlington	9-3	33.36
13	Turner County	6-5	27.81	13	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	8-4	32.87
14	Trion	8-4	27.78	14	Riverside Military Academy	6-6	29.63
15	Wilcox County	5-6	26.79	15	Mount Paran Christian	7-4	27.15

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank	Team	Region	Rec	Rating	SchStr	Rank
1 [1]	Colquitt County	1 - AAAAAAA	14-1	95.18	71.56	1 [1]
2 [1]	Lee County	1 - AAAAAA	15-0	88.37	47.89	67 [6]
3 [1]	Blessed Trinity	7 - AAAA	15-0	86.37	51.39	46 [6]
4 [2]	Milton	5 - AAAAAAA	13-2	85.35	62.11	9 [9]
5 [3]	Parkview	7 - AAAAAAA	11-1	85.16	57.84	17 [13]
6 [4]	Archer	8 - AAAAAAA	11-3	84.09	63.62	4 [4]
7 [5]	Grayson	8 - AAAAAAA	10-3	81.35	56.00	21 [15]
8 [1]	Cedar Grove	5 - AAA	14-1	79.92	46.63	80 [5]
9 [6]	North Gwinnett	6 - AAAAAAA	10-3	79.39	55.28	27 [20]
10 [7]	Lowndes	1 - AAAAAAA	10-4	79.28	65.81	3 [3]
11 [8]	Hillgrove	3 - AAAAAAA	12-1	78.88	56.04	20 [14]
12 [2]	Cartersville	5 - AAAA	14-1	78.70	49.65	56 [10]
13 [1]	Warner Robins	1 - AAAAA	13-2	77.86	58.62	15 [2]
14 [3]	Mary Persons	2 - AAAA	12-1	77.26	45.97	87 [18]
15 [4]	Marist	7 - AAAA	11-3	76.88	55.34	25 [1]
16 [2]	Rome	7 - AAAAA	13-1	76.70	41.71	118 [20]
17 [9]	Tift County	1 - AAAAAAA	8-5	76.59	68.19	2 [2]
18 [10]	Walton	4 - AAAAAAA	10-2	75.26	55.91	22 [16]
19 [5]	St. Pius X	8 - AAAA	10-2	73.40	51.22	51 [8]
20 [11]	McEachern	3 - AAAAAAA	8-4	73.28	62.48	6 [6]
21 [2]	Peach County	4 - AAA	12-3	72.56	47.62	71 [4]
22 [12]	Camden County	1 - AAAAAAA	7-4	71.85	62.14	8 [8]
23 [6]	Troup	5 - AAAA	12-2	70.95	52.52	37 [4]
24 [3]	Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	12-1	70.52	44.26	104 [17]
25 [1]	Rockmart	7 - AA	14-1	70.00	32.49	207 [19]
26 [13]	Roswell	4 - AAAAAAA	9-2	69.96	52.31	40 [28]
27 [14]	Mill Creek	6 - AAAAAAA	8-4	69.23	60.22	10 [10]
28 [4]	Buford	8 - AAAAA	10-3	68.93	42.88	112 [18]
29 [2]	Heard County	5 - AA	13-2	68.10	40.93	127 [8]
30 [15]	Marietta	3 - AAAAAAA	5-6	67.56	63.42	5 [5]
31 [5]	Bainbridge	1 - AAAAA	10-5	67.49	59.82	11 [1]
32 [2]	Northside (Warner Robins)	1 - AAAAAA	9-6	66.73	57.57	19 [3]
33 [16]	Westlake	2 - AAAAAAA	9-3	65.99	52.46	38 [26]
34 [3]	Monroe Area	8 - AAA	12-1	65.68	38.91	144 [7]
35 [1]	Eagle's Landing Christian	5 - A	13-1	65.59	29.36	236 [5]
36 [6]	Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	12-2	65.40	41.01	125 [23]
37 [1]	Irwin County	2 - A	13-1	65.34	34.96	190 [2]
38 [2]	Clinch County	2 - A	13-1	65.26	37.51	158 [1]
39 [4]	Pierce County	2 - AAA	13-1	64.96	24.34	294 [46]
40 [3]	Callaway	5 - AA	11-3	64.90	38.91	145 [13]
41 [17]	Norcross	7 - AAAAAAA	7-5	64.01	57.97	16 [12]
42 [5]	Calhoun	6 - AAA	13-1	63.72	26.16	273 [38]
43 [3]	Creekview	6 - AAAAAA	12-1	63.64	39.77	137 [22]
44 [4]	Dublin	3 - AA	11-2	63.37	40.36	133 [9]
45 [4]	Dacula	8 - AAAAAA	11-3	63.09	46.70	79 [10]
46 [5]	Valdosta	1 - AAAAAA	8-5	63.01	59.09	14 [2]
47 [7]	Jones County	4 - AAAAA	8-3	62.34	49.92	55 [6]
48 [6]	Westminster (Atlanta)	5 - AAA	8-5	61.45	54.23	31 [1]
49 [18]	West Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	6-6	60.99	53.79	33 [24]
50 [19]	Brookwood	7 - AAAAAAA	7-4	60.16	48.25	64 [37]
51 [20]	North Paulding	3 - AAAAAAA	7-4	59.90	51.34	47 [33]
52 [8]	Veterans	1 - AAAAA	8-3	59.85	51.07	52 [5]
53 [5]	Brooks County	1 - AA	9-3	59.39	47.72	70 [2]
54 [9]	Wayne County	2 - AAAAA	11-1	59.10	40.54	131 [26]
55 [7]	Benedictine	3 - AAA	11-2	58.84	28.24	247 [32]
56 [8]	Greater Atlanta Christian	7 - AAA	9-3	58.81	36.67	170 [18]
57 [6]	Fitzgerald	1 - AA	10-4	58.31	45.82	88 [4]
58 [21]	Mountain View	6 - AAAAAAA	7-4	58.23	51.77	43 [30]
59 [7]	Washington County	3 - AA	10-3	58.03	46.00	86 [3]
60 [22]	North Cobb	3 - AAAAAAA	6-4	58.00	54.52	29 [22]
61 [8]	Hapeville Charter	6 - AA	10-2	57.77	22.20	323 [37]
62 [9]	Bremen	5 - AA	9-3	57.69	31.14	218 [20]
63 [6]	Allatoona	6 - AAAAAA	8-4	57.51	47.15	74 [8]
64 [10]	Kell	7 - AAAAA	9-3	56.59	39.22	141 [29]
65 [7]	Pickens	6 - AAAA	11-1	56.58	21.18	334 [50]
66 [8]	North Oconee	8 - AAAA	9-3	56.39	41.47	122 [26]
67 [9]	Cairo	1 - AAAA	10-3	56.20	35.67	183 [33]
68 [10]	Dodge County	3 - AA	10-2	56.16	41.75	117 [7]
69 [9]	Pace Academy	5 - AAA	6-5	56.03	48.23	65 [3]
70 [7]	Sequoyah	6 - AAAAAA	10-3	55.57	42.18	116 [20]
71 [10]	Eastside	4 - AAAA	12-1	55.54	27.15	259 [46]
72 [2]	Athens Academy	8 - A	13-1	55.49	35.99	178 [1]
73 [11]	Flowery Branch	7 - AAAA	8-3	55.10	41.19	123 [27]
74 [11]	Ware County	2 - AAAAA	8-4	54.91	47.50	72 [8]
75 [8]	Coffee	1 - AAAAAA	9-4	54.57	44.72	99 [14]
76 [9]	Lanier	8 - AAAAAA	10-4	54.52	45.32	93 [12]
77 [10]	Dawson County	7 - AAA	10-2	54.49	28.99	239 [30]
78 [10]	Harrison	6 - AAAAAA	9-3	54.45	40.58	130 [21]
79 [12]	Carrollton	7 - AAAAA	10-3	54.45	40.40	132 [27]
80 [12]	Ridgeland	6 - AAAA	8-4	54.23	37.70	155 [30]
81 [13]	Baldwin	3 - AAAA	7-6	54.23	52.03	42 [5]
82 [11]	Rabun County	8 - AA	11-2	53.97	27.04	261 [24]
83 [14]	Sandy Creek	5 - AAAA	7-4	53.75	44.96	97 [21]
84 [23]	East Coweta	2 - AAAAAAA	4-8	53.74	59.33	13 [11]
85 [11]	Lovett	5 - AAA	6-6	53.71	49.20	59 [2]
86 [15]	Cedartown	5 - AAAA	5-6	53.62	51.33	48 [7]
87 [16]	Upson-Lee	2 - AAAA	7-4	53.37	49.12	60 [12]
88 [13]	Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	8-5	52.44	46.86	76 [10]
89 [12]	Thomasville	1 - AA	7-5	52.44	49.94	54 [1]
90 [24]	Newnan	2 - AAAAAAA	6-5	52.34	49.00	61 [36]
91 [17]	Burke County	3 - AAAA	8-4	52.29	43.21	111 [24]
92 [11]	Glynn Academy	2 - AAAAAA	7-5	51.76	43.57	108 [18]
93 [3]	Pelham	1 - A	12-1	51.66	14.99	381 [31]
94 [25]	South Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	5-6	51.35	55.87	23 [17]
95 [14]	Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	8-4	51.23	41.09	124 [22]
96 [3]	Prince Avenue Christian	8 - A	11-2	51.01	29.90	227 [4]
97 [4]	Marion County	4 - A	12-1	50.69	24.69	292 [12]
98 [12]	North Hall	7 - AAA	9-3	50.65	26.72	264 [37]
99 [12]	Johns Creek	7 - AAAAAA	9-2	50.63	28.50	245 [50]
100 [13]	Jefferson County	4 - AA	10-3	50.23	30.46	225 [21]
101 [18]	Oconee County	8 - AAAA	6-5	50.00	47.87	68 [14]
102 [13]	Westside (Macon)	4 - AAA	8-4	49.50	37.65	157 [12]
103 [14]	Swainsboro	2 - AA	9-3	49.46	35.81	180 [17]
104 [26]	Cherokee	4 - AAAAAAA	5-6	49.29	55.34	26 [19]
105 [15]	Locust Grove	4 - AAAAA	5-6	48.98	54.40	30 [4]
106 [27]	Collins Hill	6 - AAAAAAA	3-8	48.92	62.37	7 [7]
107 [19]	Howard	2 - AAAA	6-5	48.74	46.36	83 [16]
108 [14]	Jefferson	8 - AAA	8-3	48.67	35.70	182 [20]
109 [15]	Crisp County	1 - AAA	7-4	48.39	41.50	120 [6]
110 [16]	East Paulding	7 - AAAAA	7-5	47.86	44.67	100 [16]
111 [28]	Etowah	4 - AAAAAAA	4-7	47.56	55.64	24 [18]
112 [29]	Central Gwinnett	7 - AAAAAAA	4-7	47.43	53.91	32 [23]
113 [17]	Thomas County Central	1 - AAAAA	5-5	47.40	47.33	73 [9]
114 [4]	Savannah Christian	3 - A	11-2	47.36	26.25	268 [9]
115 [13]	Habersham Central	8 - AAAAAA	7-5	46.85	43.59	107 [17]
116 [30]	Wheeler	2 - AAAAAAA	6-4	46.83	44.33	103 [41]
117 [31]	Pebblebrook	2 - AAAAAAA	4-7	46.76	51.53	45 [32]
118 [15]	Vidalia	2 - AA	9-2	46.75	27.03	262 [25]
119 [20]	Chapel Hill	5 - AAAA	6-4	46.58	43.38	109 [23]
120 [21]	Stephens County	8 - AAAA	5-6	46.49	50.02	53 [9]
121 [14]	Creekside	5 - AAAAAA	8-4	46.33	37.83	152 [26]
122 [22]	Perry	2 - AAAA	6-5	46.21	46.06	84 [17]
123 [23]	Thomson	3 - AAAA	5-7	45.65	49.21	58 [11]
124 [24]	West Laurens	2 - AAAA	5-5	45.18	43.98	105 [22]
125 [32]	Kennesaw Mountain	3 - AAAAAAA	4-6	45.06	52.17	41 [29]
126 [33]	Forsyth Central	5 - AAAAAAA	7-4	44.82	36.28	174 [46]
127 [5]	Commerce	8 - A	10-3	44.78	25.94	278 [10]
128 [18]	Banneker	6 - AAAAA	9-2	44.45	22.84	316 [48]
129 [25]	Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	9-2	44.43	31.25	217 [38]
130 [16]	Liberty County	2 - AAA	8-4	44.40	35.41	185 [22]
131 [17]	Jackson	4 - AAA	7-5	43.99	38.76	147 [8]
132 [15]	Centennial	7 - AAAAAA	7-4	43.89	35.29	186 [36]
133 [19]	Harris County	1 - AAAAA	3-8	43.86	57.64	18 [3]
134 [18]	Appling County	2 - AAA	6-5	43.83	37.70	156 [11]
135 [34]	Woodstock	4 - AAAAAAA	3-7	43.41	52.42	39 [27]
136 [20]	Griffin	3 - AAAAA	8-4	43.34	32.78	205 [35]
137 [16]	Dalton	6 - AAAAAA	6-4	43.30	35.99	177 [34]
138 [35]	Newton	8 - AAAAAAA	4-7	42.87	51.22	50 [35]
139 [17]	Richmond Hill	2 - AAAAAA	5-6	42.63	46.01	85 [11]
140 [26]	Woodward Academy	4 - AAAA	7-5	42.59	31.09	219 [39]
141 [6]	Mount Zion (Carroll)	6 - A	10-2	42.54	23.06	310 [16]
142 [18]	Effingham County	2 - AAAAAA	7-5	42.46	38.83	146 [24]
143 [19]	Douglas County	5 - AAAAAA	8-3	42.38	34.26	196 [40]
144 [27]	Richmond Academy	3 - AAAA	7-4	42.25	38.04	150 [29]
145 [20]	Bradwell Institute	2 - AAAAAA	5-7	42.10	44.52	102 [15]
146 [21]	Mays	5 - AAAAAA	6-5	42.08	36.12	175 [32]
147 [21]	Loganville	8 - AAAAA	5-7	42.08	49.44	57 [7]
148 [5]	Calvary Day	3 - A	10-2	41.48	14.47	385 [30]
149 [36]	South Gwinnett	8 - AAAAAAA	4-7	41.34	51.60	44 [31]
150 [16]	Early County	1 - AA	6-5	41.33	44.62	101 [5]
151 [17]	Douglass	6 - AA	10-2	41.03	11.81	402 [58]
152 [22]	Stephenson	4 - AAAAAA	9-2	40.61	23.29	308 [57]
153 [22]	Statesboro	2 - AAAAA	4-7	40.32	45.62	89 [13]
154 [37]	North Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	3-7	40.19	46.41	82 [38]
155 [38]	Meadowcreek	7 - AAAAAAA	6-4	39.94	35.28	187 [47]
156 [19]	Jenkins	3 - AAA	9-4	39.90	27.00	263 [36]
157 [6]	George Walton Academy	8 - A	8-3	39.80	23.80	300 [13]
158 [7]	Charlton County	2 - A	8-4	39.80	29.72	231 [5]
159 [23]	New Hampstead	2 - AAAAA	5-6	39.67	41.51	119 [21]
160 [8]	Schley County	4 - A	9-3	39.59	20.68	339 [19]
161 [18]	Union County	8 - AA	9-2	39.19	12.76	398 [57]
162 [24]	Southwest DeKalb	5 - AAAAA	10-1	39.09	20.57	340 [52]
163 [25]	Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	6-4	39.06	33.50	203 [34]
164 [26]	Riverwood	6 - AAAAA	8-3	38.56	21.37	330 [49]
165 [19]	Elbert County	8 - AA	7-4	38.47	21.96	326 [39]
166 [28]	Columbus	1 - AAAA	7-5	38.42	34.49	193 [35]
167 [23]	Houston County	1 - AAAAAA	2-8	38.22	59.43	12 [1]
168 [24]	Alpharetta	7 - AAAAAA	6-5	38.09	36.00	176 [33]
169 [9]	Mitchell County	1 - A	8-3	38.01	13.16	395 [36]
170 [25]	Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAAA	2-8	37.82	48.56	62 [4]
171 [27]	Starr's Mill	3 - AAAAA	7-4	37.79	28.53	244 [40]
172 [26]	Tucker	4 - AAAAAA	7-4	37.60	29.61	234 [47]
173 [7]	Hebron Christian Academy	8 - A	6-6	37.18	33.51	202 [2]
174 [29]	Denmark	7 - AAAA	5-5	36.76	40.80	128 [28]
175 [8]	North Cobb Christian	6 - A	10-2	36.58	22.46	322 [17]
176 [27]	Sprayberry	6 - AAAAAA	3-7	36.18	44.82	98 [13]
177 [30]	White County	7 - AAAA	3-8	36.17	48.17	66 [13]
178 [20]	Pike County	4 - AAA	8-4	36.16	20.10	345 [53]
179 [28]	Northgate	5 - AAAAAA	6-5	36.14	36.79	166 [31]
180 [29]	Grovetown	3 - AAAAAA	6-5	36.10	34.42	194 [38]
181 [20]	Chattooga	7 - AA	9-3	36.08	21.40	329 [42]
182 [21]	Southeast Bulloch	3 - AAA	9-2	36.01	19.71	348 [54]
183 [39]	Lambert	5 - AAAAAAA	3-7	35.71	45.36	92 [40]
184 [30]	Gainesville	8 - AAAAAA	2-9	35.66	48.40	63 [5]
185 [28]	Villa Rica	7 - AAAAA	5-5	35.34	36.50	172 [30]
186 [31]	West Hall	7 - AAAA	3-7	35.14	46.54	81 [15]
187 [9]	Wesleyan	5 - A	7-5	35.01	30.95	220 [3]
188 [31]	Apalachee	8 - AAAAAA	3-7	34.72	43.97	106 [16]
189 [21]	Bleckley County	3 - AA	4-6	34.59	39.97	135 [10]
190 [40]	Campbell	2 - AAAAAAA	1-9	34.43	54.63	28 [21]
191 [32]	Salem	4 - AAAA	7-4	34.41	25.45	283 [47]
192 [10]	Fellowship Christian	6 - A	10-2	34.10	17.48	364 [22]
193 [10]	Emanuel County Institute	3 - A	7-5	33.88	22.02	324 [17]
194 [29]	Hiram	7 - AAAAA	4-6	33.67	40.98	126 [24]
195 [22]	Morgan County	8 - AAA	5-6	33.56	36.74	168 [16]
196 [22]	Hephzibah	4 - AA	8-3	33.44	20.48	342 [45]
197 [11]	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5 - A	8-4	33.42	23.57	305 [14]
198 [32]	Brunswick	2 - AAAAAA	3-7	33.36	42.38	115 [19]
199 [12]	Darlington	6 - A	9-3	33.36	25.09	285 [11]
200 [23]	Berrien	1 - AA	5-5	33.29	37.32	160 [14]
201 [13]	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	5 - A	8-4	32.87	23.94	299 [12]
202 [33]	LaGrange	5 - AAAA	2-8	32.44	52.69	36 [3]
203 [33]	Hughes	5 - AAAAAA	4-6	32.32	37.71	154 [28]
204 [34]	Westover	1 - AAAA	4-5	32.22	31.94	214 [37]
205 [30]	Walnut Grove	8 - AAAAA	2-8	32.17	46.76	77 [11]
206 [24]	Northeast	3 - AA	4-7	31.93	39.53	139 [12]
207 [35]	Spalding	2 - AAAA	3-7	31.89	42.40	114 [25]
208 [36]	Hardaway	1 - AAAA	5-5	31.57	30.64	223 [40]
209 [23]	Haralson County	6 - AAA	8-3	31.52	18.98	352 [55]
210 [25]	Washington	6 - AA	7-4	31.52	15.54	377 [54]
211 [41]	Lassiter	4 - AAAAAAA	1-9	31.47	51.31	49 [34]
212 [24]	Hart County	8 - AAA	4-7	31.47	38.57	148 [9]
213 [34]	Pope	7 - AAAAAA	5-6	31.33	34.29	195 [39]
214 [35]	Evans	3 - AAAAAA	3-8	31.24	38.38	149 [25]
215 [36]	Greenbrier	3 - AAAAAA	3-8	31.22	38.99	143 [23]
216 [26]	Jeff Davis	2 - AA	7-4	31.21	24.07	298 [32]
217 [25]	Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe	6 - AAA	7-4	31.00	22.48	321 [51]
218 [31]	Arabia Mountain	5 - AAAAA	6-5	30.11	26.20	272 [44]
219 [37]	Alexander	5 - AAAAAA	3-7	29.74	37.09	162 [29]
220 [26]	Central (Macon)	4 - AAA	3-7	29.68	36.76	167 [15]
221 [37]	Madison County	8 - AAAA	2-8	29.64	44.99	95 [20]
222 [14]	Riverside Military Academy	8 - A	6-6	29.63	27.67	254 [7]
223 [38]	Lakeside (Evans)	3 - AAAAAA	5-5	29.62	30.82	221 [45]
224 [27]	Harlem	4 - AA	7-4	29.58	20.49	341 [44]
225 [27]	Windsor Forest	3 - AAA	6-5	29.51	22.83	317 [50]
226 [11]	Greene County	7 - A	9-3	29.44	15.97	375 [27]
227 [28]	North Murray	6 - AAA	6-5	29.25	26.04	276 [39]
228 [28]	Southwest	3 - AA	3-7	29.14	43.26	110 [6]
229 [32]	Eagle's Landing	4 - AAAAA	2-8	28.97	44.99	96 [15]
230 [39]	Lovejoy	4 - AAAAAA	6-5	28.95	28.57	243 [49]
231 [42]	Duluth	6 - AAAAAAA	4-6	28.89	39.22	142 [45]
232 [43]	Peachtree Ridge	6 - AAAAAAA	1-9	28.84	52.72	35 [25]
233 [12]	Dooly County	4 - A	7-5	28.77	24.16	297 [13]
234 [38]	Central (Carrollton)	5 - AAAA	2-8	28.68	53.28	34 [2]
235 [33]	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	3-7	28.68	40.31	134 [28]
236 [40]	South Cobb	6 - AAAAAA	2-8	28.32	47.79	69 [7]
237 [34]	Riverdale	3 - AAAAA	7-4	28.29	23.54	306 [46]
238 [44]	Rockdale County	8 - AAAAAAA	3-7	28.02	39.66	138 [43]
239 [13]	Turner County	2 - A	6-5	27.81	26.39	267 [9]
240 [14]	Trion	6 - A	8-4	27.78	19.96	346 [20]
241 [39]	Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	4-6	27.57	32.86	204 [36]
242 [35]	Jonesboro	3 - AAAAA	5-6	27.50	32.65	206 [36]
243 [29]	Ringgold	6 - AAA	5-6	27.40	28.13	248 [33]
244 [15]	Mount Paran Christian	6 - A	7-4	27.15	17.11	368 [23]
245 [41]	Heritage (Conyers)	3 - AAAAAA	3-7	27.09	33.72	199 [42]
246 [42]	Northview	7 - AAAAAA	5-5	26.86	27.51	256 [51]
247 [40]	Americus-Sumter	1 - AAAA	3-7	26.85	37.33	159 [31]
248 [15]	Wilcox County	2 - A	5-6	26.79	25.49	282 [11]
249 [30]	Franklin County	8 - AAA	3-7	26.72	36.91	164 [14]
250 [31]	Cook	1 - AAA	3-8	26.66	37.99	151 [10]
251 [36]	Maynard Jackson	6 - AAAAA	6-5	26.62	21.10	336 [51]
252 [16]	Holy Innocents	5 - A	6-6	26.61	23.26	309 [16]
253 [17]	Christian Heritage	6 - A	7-4	26.30	21.30	332 [19]
254 [29]	Metter	2 - AA	6-4	26.29	22.92	315 [34]
255 [30]	Pepperell	7 - AA	6-5	25.99	24.29	295 [31]
256 [37]	South Effingham	2 - AAAAA	2-8	25.94	42.41	113 [19]
257 [38]	Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	4-6	25.86	35.19	189 [31]
258 [39]	Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	5-6	25.73	29.18	238 [38]
259 [31]	Toombs County	2 - AA	5-6	25.60	27.93	250 [22]
260 [18]	Brookstone	4 - A	7-5	25.53	13.76	392 [32]
261 [16]	Chattahoochee County	1 - A	8-4	25.43	14.13	388 [32]
262 [32]	Screven County	4 - AA	6-5	25.28	24.68	293 [30]
263 [45]	Shiloh	8 - AAAAAAA	2-8	25.26	39.47	140 [44]
264 [41]	Heritage (Ringgold)	6 - AAAA	5-6	25.16	29.79	230 [43]
265 [43]	Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAAA	6-5	25.00	24.25	296 [55]
266 [17]	Telfair County	2 - A	4-6	24.19	27.31	258 [8]
267 [18]	Miller County	1 - A	7-4	24.11	13.49	393 [34]
268 [40]	Johnson (Gainesville)	8 - AAAAA	4-6	23.69	32.09	213 [37]
269 [33]	Spencer	5 - AA	3-8	23.59	39.83	136 [11]
270 [19]	Mount de Sales	7 - A	9-2	23.33	11.25	405 [36]
271 [42]	Northwest Whitfield	6 - AAAA	6-5	23.30	19.17	351 [51]
272 [44]	South Paulding	5 - AAAAAA	2-8	23.26	35.74	181 [35]
273 [19]	Montgomery County	3 - A	8-4	23.11	13.98	390 [33]
274 [45]	Cambridge	7 - AAAAAA	3-7	22.83	34.04	198 [41]
275 [46]	Discovery	6 - AAAAAAA	1-9	22.67	45.50	90 [39]
276 [20]	Aquinas	7 - A	9-3	22.48	12.14	400 [34]
277 [46]	North Atlanta	7 - AAAAAA	5-5	22.42	23.58	303 [56]
278 [43]	Cross Creek	3 - AAAA	3-7	21.85	34.84	191 [34]
279 [20]	Manchester	4 - A	6-5	21.81	16.83	369 [25]
280 [41]	Ola	4 - AAAAA	1-9	21.73	46.73	78 [12]
281 [42]	Paulding County	7 - AAAAA	1-9	21.03	45.21	94 [14]
282 [47]	Alcovy	3 - AAAAAA	2-8	21.03	37.05	163 [30]
283 [34]	Butler	4 - AA	5-5	20.97	20.35	344 [46]
284 [21]	Whitefield Academy	6 - A	6-4	20.86	14.93	383 [28]
285 [21]	Macon County	4 - A	5-6	20.75	21.03	337 [18]
286 [32]	Monroe	1 - AAA	5-6	20.62	27.90	252 [34]
287 [44]	Hampton	4 - AAAA	4-6	20.47	25.07	286 [48]
288 [45]	Henry County	4 - AAAA	4-7	20.25	27.92	251 [44]
289 [46]	Shaw	1 - AAAA	3-7	19.69	30.60	224 [41]
290 [33]	Adairsville	6 - AAA	4-6	19.45	25.07	287 [42]
291 [22]	Savannah Country Day	3 - A	7-4	19.43	11.46	404 [35]
292 [43]	Lithonia	5 - AAAAA	6-5	19.31	18.48	355 [53]
293 [35]	Coosa	7 - AA	4-7	19.19	26.08	275 [27]
294 [36]	South Atlanta	6 - AA	6-5	19.12	13.95	391 [56]
295 [23]	Tattnall Square	7 - A	6-5	19.08	14.70	384 [29]
296 [22]	Claxton	3 - A	6-5	19.07	19.50	349 [21]
297 [48]	Tri-Cities	5 - AAAAAA	1-9	18.97	35.20	188 [37]
298 [44]	Cass	7 - AAAAA	1-9	18.80	40.73	129 [25]
299 [49]	New Manchester	5 - AAAAAA	2-8	18.39	33.62	200 [43]
300 [37]	Bacon County	2 - AA	2-8	18.32	35.81	179 [17]
301 [34]	Jackson County	8 - AAA	3-7	18.06	30.41	226 [26]
302 [23]	Taylor County	4 - A	5-6	18.00	19.21	350 [22]
303 [50]	Morrow	4 - AAAAAA	3-7	17.86	29.60	235 [48]
304 [45]	Decatur	6 - AAAAA	4-6	17.26	21.16	335 [50]
305 [51]	Drew	4 - AAAAAA	3-7	17.18	26.72	265 [52]
306 [38]	Monticello	8 - AA	5-6	16.80	22.77	319 [35]
307 [35]	Sonoraville	6 - AAA	4-6	16.21	22.95	313 [48]
308 [36]	Beach	3 - AAA	4-6	16.20	28.90	240 [31]
309 [24]	Hancock Central	7 - A	6-5	16.16	12.69	399 [38]
310 [37]	Islands	3 - AAA	3-7	16.11	24.96	290 [44]
311 [47]	LaFayette	6 - AAAA	5-5	16.04	17.61	363 [53]
312 [25]	Atkinson County	2 - A	3-7	15.96	29.63	233 [6]
313 [26]	Jenkins County	3 - A	5-5	15.96	13.19	394 [35]
314 [38]	Tattnall County	2 - AAA	2-9	15.36	36.68	169 [17]
315 [46]	McIntosh	3 - AAAAA	3-7	15.22	25.13	284 [45]
316 [24]	St. Francis	6 - A	5-5	14.12	12.84	397 [33]
317 [39]	Glenn Hills	4 - AA	3-7	14.02	22.49	320 [36]
318 [52]	Forest Park	4 - AAAAAA	3-7	13.63	20.36	343 [58]
319 [40]	Laney	4 - AA	4-6	13.58	21.67	328 [41]
320 [25]	Stratford Academy	7 - A	5-6	13.53	16.57	372 [24]
321 [48]	Luella	4 - AAAA	3-7	13.14	27.60	255 [45]
322 [47]	Miller Grove	5 - AAAAA	3-8	12.98	28.28	246 [41]
323 [48]	North Springs	6 - AAAAA	3-7	12.85	22.95	312 [47]
324 [49]	Columbia	5 - AAAAA	2-8	12.80	28.60	242 [39]
325 [26]	Strong Rock Christian	5 - A	3-7	12.71	28.81	241 [6]
326 [53]	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4 - AAAAAA	2-8	12.71	25.52	281 [54]
327 [39]	Fannin County	7 - AAA	4-7	11.74	22.94	314 [49]
328 [54]	Dunwoody	7 - AAAAAA	2-8	11.74	30.78	222 [46]
329 [27]	Pinecrest Academy	6 - A	4-6	11.66	15.21	379 [26]
330 [55]	M.L. King	4 - AAAAAA	1-9	11.57	26.24	271 [53]
331 [40]	Worth County	1 - AAA	1-9	11.35	37.18	161 [13]
332 [41]	Lamar County	5 - AA	4-6	11.06	27.08	260 [23]
333 [56]	River Ridge	6 - AAAAAA	1-9	10.94	47.10	75 [9]
334 [42]	Banks County	8 - AA	4-6	10.53	16.69	371 [52]
335 [27]	Seminole County	1 - A	5-6	10.34	17.90	361 [24]
336 [41]	Brantley County	2 - AAA	2-8	10.20	29.88	228 [27]
337 [50]	Whitewater	3 - AAAAA	1-9	9.73	34.12	197 [33]
338 [28]	Johnson County	3 - A	6-4	9.25	4.08	416 [48]
339 [57]	Chattahoochee	7 - AAAAAA	0-10	8.95	32.22	212 [44]
340 [49]	Chestatee	7 - AAAA	1-9	8.43	45.39	91 [19]
341 [28]	Mount Pisgah Christian	6 - A	3-7	8.28	19.92	347 [20]
342 [42]	East Hall	7 - AAA	3-7	7.42	31.44	215 [24]
343 [29]	Washington-Wilkes	7 - A	3-7	7.03	15.53	378 [29]
344 [43]	B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	3-7	6.79	32.49	208 [19]
345 [50]	Southeast Whitfield	6 - AAAA	3-7	6.63	22.80	318 [49]
346 [29]	First Presbyterian	7 - A	3-7	6.39	16.49	373 [25]
347 [30]	Providence Christian	8 - A	4-6	5.82	18.14	359 [21]
348 [30]	Warren County	7 - A	5-5	5.68	3.46	417 [49]
349 [31]	Lincoln County	7 - A	4-6	5.42	9.50	408 [43]
350 [44]	Gordon Central	7 - AA	3-7	5.38	17.17	367 [51]
351 [51]	Dougherty	1 - AAAA	0-8	5.28	36.87	165 [32]
352 [32]	Bowdon	6 - A	1-9	5.26	27.48	257 [7]
353 [51]	Grady	6 - AAAAA	1-9	5.01	26.24	270 [43]
354 [45]	Putnam County	8 - AA	3-7	4.41	22.98	311 [33]
355 [33]	Gordon Lee	6 - A	2-8	4.32	23.68	301 [14]
356 [52]	Fayette County	3 - AAAAA	0-10	4.19	28.03	249 [42]
357 [47]	Lakeside (Atlanta)	7 - AAAAAAA	1-9	3.70	41.47	121 [42]
358 [34]	Terrell County	1 - A	4-6	3.68	12.12	401 [39]
359 [31]	Athens Christian	8 - A	3-7	3.19	23.39	307 [15]
360 [46]	Model	7 - AA	2-8	2.72	18.90	353 [47]
361 [35]	Towns County	8 - A	3-7	2.56	33.53	201 [3]
362 [47]	East Laurens	3 - AA	1-9	2.19	36.34	173 [15]
363 [36]	McIntosh County Academy	3 - A	1-9	1.84	23.57	304 [15]
364 [43]	Coahulla Creek	6 - AAA	1-9	0.90	23.63	302 [47]
365 [48]	Therrell	6 - AA	2-8	0.35	21.21	333 [43]
366 [44]	Johnson (Savannah)	3 - AAA	2-8	0.09	25.62	280 [41]
367 [52]	North Clayton	4 - AAAA	1-9	0.04	29.82	229 [42]
368 [37]	Hawkinsville	4 - A	4-6	0.04	12.90	396 [37]
369 [38]	Calhoun County	1 - A	3-7	0.03	15.04	380 [30]
370 [49]	Westside (Augusta)	4 - AA	1-9	-0.16	25.01	289 [29]
371 [50]	Bryan County	2 - AA	1-8	-0.40	25.66	279 [28]
372 [45]	Lumpkin County	7 - AAA	3-7	-0.45	17.20	366 [56]
373 [32]	Landmark Christian	5 - A	2-8	-0.82	21.37	331 [18]
374 [48]	Berkmar	7 - AAAAAAA	3-7	-1.57	32.41	210 [48]
375 [33]	King's Ridge Christian	6 - A	1-9	-1.67	14.97	382 [27]
376 [34]	Lakeview Academy	8 - A	1-9	-2.18	26.11	274 [10]
377 [51]	Social Circle	8 - AA	4-6	-2.47	6.06	415 [59]
378 [52]	Armuchee	7 - AA	2-8	-3.01	18.54	354 [48]
379 [53]	Lithia Springs	6 - AAAAA	2-8	-3.48	17.73	362 [54]
380 [53]	McNair	6 - AA	3-7	-3.75	16.15	374 [53]
381 [54]	Temple	5 - AA	1-9	-4.11	26.24	269 [26]
382 [55]	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	2-8	-4.68	18.34	358 [50]
383 [56]	Jordan	5 - AA	2-8	-4.92	21.90	327 [40]
384 [39]	Greenville	4 - A	3-7	-5.25	7.56	411 [46]
385 [40]	Lanier County	2 - A	0-10	-5.56	32.43	209 [4]
386 [41]	Portal	3 - A	2-8	-6.10	15.73	376 [28]
387 [35]	Pacelli	4 - A	4-6	-6.31	7.12	413 [37]
388 [46]	Stone Mountain	5 - AAA	2-8	-7.18	35.44	184 [21]
389 [47]	Long County	2 - AAA	0-10	-7.74	36.57	171 [19]
390 [42]	Wilkinson County	7 - A	1-9	-7.92	17.98	360 [23]
391 [36]	Walker	6 - A	1-9	-8.60	14.23	387 [31]
392 [57]	Josey	4 - AA	0-10	-8.87	22.01	325 [38]
393 [58]	Dade County	7 - AA	1-9	-9.08	18.43	356 [49]
394 [48]	Groves	3 - AAA	1-9	-9.28	29.72	232 [28]
395 [53]	Druid Hills	4 - AAAA	2-8	-11.33	17.45	365 [54]
396 [49]	Cherokee Bluff	7 - AAA	0-10	-12.33	32.38	211 [23]
397 [43]	Baconton Charter	1 - A	3-7	-12.65	7.72	410 [45]
398 [50]	Redan	5 - AAA	1-9	-13.76	29.36	237 [29]
399 [51]	Kendrick	4 - AAA	1-9	-14.03	27.85	253 [35]
400 [54]	Chamblee	5 - AAAAA	0-10	-14.03	34.50	192 [32]
401 [37]	Georgia Military College	7 - A	3-7	-14.17	0.04	418 [38]
402 [52]	Murray County	6 - AAA	0-10	-14.59	21.03	338 [52]
403 [58]	Osborne	6 - AAAAAA	0-10	-14.94	37.75	153 [27]
404 [54]	Gilmer	6 - AAAA	0-10	-15.80	18.36	357 [52]
405 [44]	Treutlen	3 - A	3-7	-16.14	7.45	412 [47]
406 [38]	Our Lady of Mercy	5 - A	0-10	-16.45	26.40	266 [8]
407 [53]	Savannah	3 - AAA	0-10	-17.33	24.84	291 [45]
408 [54]	East Jackson	8 - AAA	1-9	-17.43	25.01	288 [43]
409 [55]	Rutland	4 - AAA	0-10	-19.18	31.37	216 [25]
410 [45]	Crawford County	4 - A	3-7	-19.34	-1.07	419 [50]
411 [46]	Stewart County	1 - A	2-8	-19.93	8.06	409 [44]
412 [59]	Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	0-10	-23.38	14.12	389 [55]
413 [56]	Towers	5 - AAA	0-10	-25.09	25.96	277 [40]
414 [55]	Clarkston	5 - AAAAA†	0-10	-29.81	14.27	386 [55]
415 [47]	Twiggs County	7 - A	0-10	-31.89	10.29	406 [41]
416 [48]	Wheeler County	3 - A	1-9	-33.79	11.50	403 [40]
417 [1]	ACE Charter	7 - A†	4-6	-35.15	-17.31	420 [1]
418 [49]	Central (Talbotton)	4 - A	0-10	-39.75	9.73	407 [42]
419 [50]	Randolph-Clay	1 - A	0-10	-45.45	16.79	370 [26]
420 [2]	Pataula Charter	1 - A†	2-7	-56.43	-38.35	422 [3]
421 [3]	Glascock County	7 - A†	1-8-1	-64.31	-24.94	421 [2]
422 [56]	Cross Keys	5 - AAAAA†	0-10	-86.80	6.32	414 [56]

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank	Region	Comp Rating	Avg Rating
1	1 - AAAAAAA	90.44	80.29
2	1 - AAAAAA	79.14	61.78
3	8 - AAAAAAA	78.30	46.16
4	3 - AAAAAAA	77.29	64.04
5	7 - AAAA	77.24	45.81
6	7 - AAAAAAA	73.69	46.69
7	5 - AAAAAAA	73.28	50.90
8	1 - AAAAA	72.95	59.10
9	5 - AAAA	72.34	51.72
10	6 - AAAAAAA	71.78	47.32
11	4 - AAAAAAA	70.31	52.03
12	5 - AAA	69.88	40.50
13	4 - AAAAA	67.34	45.33
14	2 - AAAA	67.13	49.30
15	8 - AAAA	66.04	51.06
16	7 - AAAAA	65.61	39.83
17	5 - AA	64.20	28.58
18	2 - AAAAAAA	62.70	49.98
19	6 - AAAAAA	62.19	41.47
20	8 - AAAAA	61.78	44.96
21	3 - AA	60.61	40.56
22	1 - AA	60.55	49.30
23	4 - AAA	60.36	33.95
24	2 - A	60.20	31.04
25	8 - AAAAAA	59.11	45.00
26	2 - AAAAA	56.89	44.12
27	3 - AAAA	55.30	44.28
28	7 - AAA	55.11	21.38
29	8 - AAA	54.96	31.16
30	2 - AAA	54.82	28.56
31	8 - A	52.63	28.06
	8-Div A - A	52.09	33.68
	8-Div B - A	40.54	23.81
32	7 - AA	52.63	14.71
33	2 - AAAAAA	52.04	42.45
34	5 - A	51.57	24.59
35	6 - AAAA	50.82	23.01
36	1 - AAAA	50.17	31.41
37	6 - AAA	49.18	23.03
38	5 - AAAAAA	47.96	32.25
39	3 - AAA	47.64	19.27
40	7 - AAAAAA	47.08	28.33
41	4 - AAAA	46.59	21.77
42	2 - AA	46.39	28.58
43	6 - AA	46.30	16.04
44	8 - AA	45.14	16.75
45	6 - A	42.27	19.14
	6-Div A - A	41.41	26.19
	6-Div B - A	30.71	13.36
46	4 - A	42.02	13.37
	4-Div A - A	38.25	8.78
	4-Div B - A	33.91	16.65
47	3 - A	41.69	14.53
	3-Div A - A	41.55	20.07
	3-Div B - A	27.86	8.86
48	4 - AA	41.49	19.95
49	3 - AAAAA	40.37	23.78
50	1 - A	40.29	8.53
51	6 - AAAAA	40.12	20.86
52	1 - AAA	40.12	25.68
53	3 - AAAAAA	39.71	29.42
54	4 - AAAAAA	39.33	22.33
55	5 - AAAAA	32.32	17.84
56	7 - A	28.97	8.91
	7-Div B - A	25.60	10.69
	7-Div A - A	20.98	6.50

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct	Likelihood
09/21	Bainbridge	Crisp County	0 - 23	20.25	88.3%	0.138
09/21	Roswell	Wheeler	36 - 37	21.98	90.0%	0.187
08/31	Lanier	Alpharetta	9 - 14	17.59	85.3%	0.222
09/14	Mount Zion (Carroll)	Christian Heritage	22 - 30	15.09	81.9%	0.245
10/26	Mundy's Mill	Forest Park	12 - 36	12.53	77.8%	0.245
09/14	Milton	Roswell	20 - 22	16.55	84.0%	0.252
08/31	Heard County	Hapeville Charter	3 - 33	11.49	75.9%	0.256
08/24	Cedar Shoals	Winder-Barrow	7 - 14	14.57	81.1%	0.257
09/07	Tattnall Square	Lincoln County	28 - 34	14.81	81.5%	0.258
10/26	Commerce	Riverside Military Academy	19 - 20	16.30	83.6%	0.261
09/28	Gordon Central	Dade County	12 - 13	15.62	82.7%	0.271
08/17	Chattooga	Adairsville	20 - 21	15.48	82.5%	0.273
11/09	Marietta	East Coweta	26 - 28	14.98	81.7%	0.274
09/07	Salem	Alcovy	20 - 23	14.54	81.1%	0.276
11/09	Crisp County	Pike County	3 - 9	13.39	79.2%	0.280

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating	Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct
87.96	12/12	Colquitt County	Milton	13 - 14	9.83	72.8%
87.28	11/30	Colquitt County	Archer	22 - 21	9.94	73.0%
85.23	09/21	Parkview	Milton	37 - 35	0.97	52.4%
84.68	08/17	Milton	Archer	21 - 19	1.26	53.1%
84.55	09/21	Colquitt County	Grayson	26 - 14	12.68	78.0%
84.50	11/16	Parkview	Archer	29 - 36	2.22	55.5%
82.65	10/11	Archer	Grayson	14 - 41	1.59	54.0%
81.41	11/23	Milton	Hillgrove	20 - 19	5.32	63.0%
81.12	11/23	Colquitt County	North Gwinnett	45 - 0	16.95	84.5%
81.10	12/12	Blessed Trinity	Cartersville	23 - 9	7.68	68.3%
81.04	11/30	Milton	Lowndes	28 - 17	7.22	67.3%
81.01	08/31	Parkview	Lowndes	39 - 27	7.03	66.9%
81.00	11/02	Colquitt County	Lowndes	40 - 6	17.05	84.6%
80.82	09/14	Colquitt County	Warner Robins	41 - 14	16.17	83.4%
80.06	11/23	Grayson	Lowndes	15 - 20	3.22	58.0%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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