Predictions for the Class AAAAAA playoffs below.
First, let's talk about five pre-playoff hunches that I've got.
1. Colquitt County is the most formidable No. 1 team entering the state playoffs in the highest class since Lowndes in 2008. That is, Colquitt has separated itself from the field to the point that a failure to win the title would be viewed as a gigantic upset. Of course, that '08 Lowndes team lost in the quarterfinals at Grayson. So Colquitt is by no means a lock. But the gap, as viewed from the perspective of the regular season, is immense.
2. I don't trust the other Region 1 teams. They deserve their ranking because they've had good wins and no bad losses. Talking about Lee County and Valdosta there. But I would be surprised if any non-Colquitt teams from Region 1 made the quarterfinals. That said, I did pick Lee County to beat Lovejoy in the first round. Lovejoy's star WR Preston Williams is out with a knee injury. Not sure if Lovejoy has the offense to keep up with a team that will score points.
3. Most of the best teams are in Gwinnett County. Somebody from Gwinnett will emerge and challenge Colquitt County. Could be North Gwinnett. Could be Grayson. Could be Dacula. Could be Mill Creek. The team best positioned to make a run is Archer, because of its draw. That's my choice to make the finals with Colquitt County.
4. Region champions Alpharetta, Westlake, Hillgrove and Milton will not be factors. Each would finish third or lower in the Gwinnett County regions.
5. Tucker is the exception. That's the one team with the talent and tradition to make a run. But the Tigers' draw is hard, and they've not played the kind of tough schedule that gets teams ready for the AAAAAA playoffs. And it's harder in AAAAAA to win with a run-based offense than it is in AAAAA. And we also hear that Tucker is nursing some significant injuries, including those to Duke Shelley and Jonathan Ledbetter.
First round
Etowah d. South Forsyth
Westlake d. North Paulding
Valdosta d. Newton
North Gwinnett d. Central Gwinnett
Roswell d. Lambert
Hillgrove d. Douglas County
Lee County d. Lovejoy
Archer d. Norcross
McEachern d. East Coweta
Alpharetta d. Cherokee
Grayson at Mill Creek
Tucker d. Tift County
North Cobb d. Hughes
Milton d. Northview
Dacula d. Peachtree Ridge
Colquitt County d. Rockdale County
Second round
Etowah d. Westlake
North Gwinnett d. Valdosta
Hillgrove d. Roswell
Archer d. Lee County
McEachern d. Alpharetta
Grayson d. Tucker
Milton d. North Cobb
Colquitt County d. Dacula
Third round
North Gwinnett d. Etowah
Archer d. Hillgrove
Grayson d. McEachern
Colquitt County d. Milton
Semifinals
Archer d. North Gwinnett
Colquitt County d. Grayson
Final
Colquitt County d Archer
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