Imagine a Class AA state semifinal where all final teams were from the same region.
Highly unlike, sure. And the scenario is impossible for every region - except Region 6, that is. That region is the only in which all of its four teams won in the first round. GAC, Lovett, Wesleyan and Pace Academy all won opening round matchups to advance.
So what are the chances of an all-Region 6 semifinal?
According to this week's Maxwell Projections for Round 2, zero chance. Well, not exactly. Maxwell says there is a 0.05% chance, or roughly 1 in 2,075 odds, for an all Region 6 semifinal. That's better than zero.
As of now, the Maxwell Projections bracket has half of the final four coming out of Region 6, with Pace and GAC squaring off in the semifinals, and GAC winning.
According to my predictions - which I made before the playoffs started - there is zero chance of an all-Region 6 semifinals. That's because I incorrectly had Pace and Wesleyan losing in the first round.
Regardless of projections or predictions, what makes an all-Region 6 semifinal virtually impossible is the second round matchup for Lovett. The Lions are a No. 2 seed and have to travel to play the No. 1 seed from Region 2, which just so happens to be the state's top-ranked team: the undefeated, defending state champion Benedictine Cadets.
Benedictine, of Savannah, beat GAC last year for the state title, and beat the Spartans this year again in the season opener. GAC beat Lovett handily in the region final by a score of 34-7. Obviously, transitive properties never work in sports, so maybe Lovett beats Benedictine. If that happens, it's safe to say that will be one of the biggest state playoff upsets - regardless of classification - in recent memory.
Regardless of how the rest of the Class AA tournament plays out, one simple fact has already been proven: There's not a deeper region than that of Region 6.
Correction: Previously, it was mistakenly written that the Region 6 teams could meet in the quarterfinals.
Correction No. 2: Previously, it was written that the Maxwell Projections predicted a zero-percent chance of an all-Region 6 semifinals.
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