For those who haven't do so, I recommend looking at Loren Maxwell's computerized projections for the state-playoff brackets. Regardless of whether you agree with them, the predictions make it clear what's at stake in terms of position on the draw.
Below is a region-by-region look at the top games in Class AAAAAA this week and some of the playoff possibilities. Colquitt County, Lovejoy, Tucker, Westlake, Alpharetta and Archer are hoping to clinch titles with victories.
-Region 1 – Colquitt County (8-0, 3-0) can clinch its first region title since 1999 with a victory at Tift County (6-1, 2-1). Seems strange that a program that has reached the semifinals a state-record five straight times hasn't won a region title in that time. Colquitt has four region titles in its history (1994, 1995, 1996, 1999), all during the Jim Hughes era. Meanwhile, Camden County (5-3, 0-3) must beat Lee County (6-1, 2-1) or miss the post-season for the first time since 1988. And then there's Valdosta (7-1, 2-1) vs. Lowndes (6-2, 1-2). Either could finish as high as second, or miss the playoffs entirely, but the prospects are better for Valdosta. Victories against Lowndes and Lee County would make Valdosta the No. 2 seed (assuming the Colquitt County is the No. 1). Lowndes, even if it beats Valdosta, might be in a position of needing to beat Tift County next week to make the playoffs.
-Region 2 -. The winner of the Tucker-Lovejoy game will be the region champion. Lovejoy (6-2, 3-0) has won four consecutive region titles, including 2-AAAAAA the past two seasons. Tucker (6-2, 3-0) won 6-AAAAA last season. Tucker has won 15 region titles in its history, including eight since 2001. This would be the Tigers' first in the highest classification. Newton and Rockdale County would appear to be the other playoff teams in this region, although there is plenty of ball to be played.
-Region 3 – Westlake (6-1, 5-0) can clinch its first region title since 2005 with a victory over South Cobb (4-4, 3-2) in a game that has been moved to Saturday at 2 p.m. The Class AAAAAA coach of the year is probably going to the one that wins the state title this year, but Bryan Love deserves some votes if the Lions get a No. 1 seed. He inherited an 0-10 team in 2013. The other likely playoff teams are East Coweta and Douglas County, with South Cobb having a decent shot. Newnan (3-5, 2-3) needs to win at arch-rival East Coweta (6-2, 3-2) or suffer its first losing season since 2005 (4-7) and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2005 (4-7).
-Region 4 – Barring another upset, it looks like Harrison's upset of Hillgrove isn't going to mean much beyond a good post-season memory. Hillgrove (6-3, 4-1) can still win the region title with a victory next week over McEachern (6-2, 4-0). And Harrison (5-3, 2-2) needs to beat McEachern or can do no better than fifth place. The big game this week is North Paulding (4-5, 3-2) at North Cobb (5-3, 2-2), which figures to decide third and fourth place. Harrison lost to both of them, meaning any significant tiebreakers will be deadly to the Hoyas.
-Region 5 – Game of the week here is Roswell (6-2, 5-1) at Etowah (6-2, 4-2). It's probably for the region title for Roswell, which faces Lassiter (1-7, 1-5) next week. That would be Roswell's first region title since 2010. Remember that Roswell was 0-10 in 2011. Expect Milton (6-1, 5-1) to win out against Pope (2-6, 2-4) and Wheeler (3-5, 2-4), which means Milton is the likely region champ is Roswell slips up. Roswell beat Milton last month and holds that tiebreaker in case of a tie. And finally, keep a close eye on Walton, the team that forfeited three wins, including one in the region. The Raiders (2-6, 2-4) can sneak into the playoffs with victories over Cherokee (6-3, 4-3) this week and Etowah next week. Walton has beaten both of those Cherokee County schools each of the past three seasons.
-Region 6 – Alpharetta (7-1, 7-0) will clinch its third region title in four seasons with a victory at Northview (6-2, 5-2). Remember that Alpharetta, born in 2004, had not made the playoffs until 2010 or won a region title until 2011. The other likely playoff teams are Northview, South Forsyth, Lambert and Centennial, all 5-2 in region play.
-Region 7 – This is the best race in AAAAAA, with Norcross, North Gwinnett, Peachtree Ridge and Mill Creek each at 4-1 in region play. Mill Creek plays at Norcross on Friday, then at Peachtree Ridge on Nov. 7. Those are the only remaining games among the big four. Assuming no upsets otherwise, let's look at the scenarios: Mill Creek sweeps – title goes to North Gwinnet; Mill Creek beats only Norcross – title goes to North Gwinnett; Mill Creek beats only Peachtree Ridge – title goes to Norcross. Mill Creek is swept - three-way tie requiring coin tosses for seeding. Peachtree Ridge cannot win the region outright.
-Region 8 – Dacula (8-0, 6-0) can clinch its first region title since 2005 with a victory over preseason favorite and defending champion Archer (5-3, 5-1). Archer beat Dacula 31-14 last season and began 2014 with a top-five preseason ranking, only to lose close games to Sandy Creek, Peachtree Ridge and Grayson. The No. 1 seed is pretty important in this region because the No. 2 will be seeded to play top-ranked Colquitt County in the second round of the state playoffs.
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