Buford, East Coweta, Westlake most affected by possible Douglas County forfeits

If Douglas County forfeits its three football victories for using ineligible players, there will be a surprise beneficiary — Buford, the No. 1 team in Class 7A, now projected to get a top-8 seed in the playoffs.

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Other teams that can expect big changes in their GHSA’s Post Season Rankings finish are East Coweta, Westlake and Douglass, according to the computer Maxwell Ratings projections.

Douglas County, previously picked to be seeded No. 23 in the 32-team 7A bracket, would miss the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

AJC Varsity reported Wednesday the GHSA has ruled two Douglas County players ineligible. If those rulings are not overturned, Douglas County would forfeit games in which the two played. Douglas County has beaten Douglass, Carver of Columbus and Rome. Douglas County’s record would go from 3-3 to 0-6.

In past years, the forfeits would not affect the playoffs much because they involved nonregion games. This is the first season the GHSA has used a math model to pick and seed the 32 playoff teams in all eight classifications. Now, all games count, not just region contests, and region finish is almost meaningless.

The GHSA’s PSR is calculated using team winning percentage and opponents’ winning percentage, so Douglas County’s reduced record would have a ripple effect that touches most teams. But only 72 teams would finish differently, according to Maxwell, and most of those would hardly notice the difference.

Exceptions, besides Douglas County, include Buford, East Coweta, Westlake and Douglass.

Buford would be projected to finish eighth instead of 10th in the Class 7A PSR standings, meaning the Wolves would be seeded to get two home playoff games instead of one in the 32-team playoff bracket.

East Coweta would fall from No. 8 to No. 11, meaning only one home playoff game. Westlake would be projected to finish No. 13 instead of No. 9.

East Coweta and Westlake are in Douglas County’s region, and Douglas County’s 0-6 record (and projected 2-8 finish) would hurt their opponents’ winning percentage, dropping them in the standings, with Buford hopping over them. Carrollton and Northgate also are in Douglas County’s region, but the impact on them would be insignificant, Maxwell projects.

Based on human and computer polls, those Class 7A changes to Buford and East Coweta would be an accidental improvement.

Buford, the undefeated nationally ranked reigning champion of the highest class, is the No. 1-ranked team in almost every poll, and its projected No. 10 seed without the forfeits has been a symbol of PSR shortcomings. East Coweta is a 5-2 team outside the Top 10 in all seven polls that make up the AJC Varsity Composite rankings.

Surprisingly, only one of the three teams that Douglas County has beaten stands to gain in the PSR. That’s Douglass, a Class 4A team projected to get the No. 9 seed instead of the No. 16 seed with a forfeit win. Douglass, ranked No. 7 in the AJC rankings, has been underseeded in Maxwell’s PSR projections.

Carver and Rome would not benefit, Maxwell projects. What they pick up in a victory would be counterbalanced by taking on Douglas County’s weaker won-lost record.