Atlanta Falcons

Will the Falcons end playoff drought? AJC writers offer season predictions

The NFC South typically offers a good opportunity for the postseason, but questions remain.
Tua Tagovailoa (left) will begin the season as the Falcons' starting quarterback, but when last year's starter, Michael Penix Jr., gets healthy, there could be another quarterback competition. (Jason Getz/AJC)
Tua Tagovailoa (left) will begin the season as the Falcons' starting quarterback, but when last year's starter, Michael Penix Jr., gets healthy, there could be another quarterback competition. (Jason Getz/AJC)
By AJC Sports
45 minutes ago

Are you ready for some football?

The Falcons open their season Sunday at Pittsburgh, and with that kickoff comes plenty of unknowns about how the season will go. The quarterback position is one of the biggest question marks, along with the impact of some key defensive absences.

Atlanta hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2017, and this could be the year. Or it could be another year of heartache.

Here are some season predictions from the AJC Sports staff:

Daniel Flick, Falcons beat writer

Do the Falcons have a quality starting quarterback? Do they have enough pieces, without Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., to field a formidable pass rush? We don’t know — and the Falcons will have to figure it out during a challenging early-season slate.

The second half of the season appears more favorable for the Falcons, who face an easier schedule and should, in theory, have a better grasp on their quarterback situation. The Falcons have a talented cast of weapons, return four of five starters on the offensive line and boast a secondary with plenty of playmakers, all of which should keep the Falcons reasonably competitive. But until answers grow clearer at quarterback and within the front seven, it’s difficult to trust, or believe, in what the team can do this year.

That’s part of the fun, and if nothing else, the Falcons — with their offensive stars and core defensive pieces — have a chance to be entertaining. Prediction: 7-10

Michael Cunningham, columnist

The Falcons have a decent chance to make the playoffs because the NFC South is weak again. Nine victories should be enough to win the division. I couldn’t find that many for the Falcons, even under the most optimistic scenarios.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was bad during the preseason, but he’ll start in Week 1, by default. There’s no true No. 2 receiver opposite Drake London. The Falcons replaced a good right tackle with a lineman who is good for one drive-killing penalty every game. They are down three productive pass rushers from 2025.

That’s just way too many questions for the new regime to answer in Year 1. Prediction: 7-10.

More Falcons season-preview content

The Falcons open the season Sept. 13 at the Steelers, with Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback — at least to open the season. With new head coach Kevin Stefanski, the Falcons will look to end their eight-year playoff drought. Check out the AJC’s season preview content:

Sugiura column: Michael Penix Jr.’s patience in return is absolutely the right move

Falcons tab Tua Tagovailoa as starting QB for season opener at Steelers

Offensive preview: New rushing scheme built around versatility

Defensive preview: Stefanski, Falcons’ defense placing greater emphasis on takeaways

Special teams preview: Nick Folk’s late-career resurgence gives Falcons an answer to kicking woes

Falcons name five captains for 2026 season

Ken Sugiura, columnist

It stands to reason that after firing a coach who went 8-9 the past two seasons, the Falcons should actually cross over the threshold and post a winning record and make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

And if you want to believe, the coaching of Kevin Stefanski and the dynamic production of running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver London are reasons.

But the defense will probably take a step back. Do-it-all linebacker Kaden Elliss was lost to free agency and the strongest facet of the unit — the pass rush — has been severely compromised by the eight-game suspension of edge rusher Pearce Jr. and the season-ending injury of edge rusher Walker.

With the uncertainty at quarterback between Game 1 starter Tagovailoa and possible starter-in-waiting Michael Penix Jr., projecting anything more than what the Falcons accomplished a year ago feels overly optimistic.

The NFL’s second-longest playoff drought extends to a ninth year. Prediction: 8-9.

Rod Beard, Senior sports editor

All summer, I’ve been reminded of the old sports adage about having two quarterbacks being a sign that you don’t have one. And with the injury histories of Tagovailoa and Penix, it’s even more of a question. Projecting this season feels like a carbon copy of last season — if the Falcons get good QB production, if the offensive line protects and if the defense generates a pass rush, anything is possible.

That feels like a lot of ‘ifs’ though.

The key factor will be how the Falcons fare against the NFC South. They went 3-3 last season against their division rivals, including a pair of 3-point losses to the Buccaneers and Panthers. If the Falcons had won either, they would have won the division and been in the playoffs.

Look, I’d love to say the Falcons will figure things out this year and end their playoff drought, but having followed the Lions for most of my life and now being in Atlanta for more than a year, I’ve learned how it works to be too optimistic for a mediocre team. Prediction: 7-10