Falcons game-by-game prediction: early-season schedule leads to slow start

FLOWERY BRANCH — Direct, straightforward and surely pre-planned, Falcons general manager Ian Cunningham showed no hesitation in speaking playoff aspirations into the air within the team’s facility in Flowery Branch.

“We’re competing to make the playoffs,” Cunningham said Sept. 2. “That’s what we’re doing. That’s why we play. You want as many shots on that to allow yourselves the opportunity to get into the dance. Once you get in, who knows what may happen. We’re constantly going to continue to invest in the roster.

“That’s the main goal. That’s why we do what we’re doing. So whatever we can do to continue to push us forward, that’s what we’ll do.”

The Falcons have huddled on the postseason fringe for several years but haven’t reached it since 2017. Their eight-year drought is the second-longest in the NFL.

Cunningham and first-year coach Kevin Stefanski are at the forefront of what the Falcons hope is the right leadership to turn the tide of the franchise.

Their first offseason is over, and it came with no shortage of storylines.

The Falcons tabbed Tua Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback for Sunday’s season-opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers, while his primary competitor, Michael Penix Jr., feels he’s “really close” to being ready to play. When he is, another decision awaits Stefanski, Cunningham and president of football Matt Ryan.

The team brings back only 28.1% of its franchise-record 57 sacks from last season, in part because of an eight-game suspension for James Pearce Jr. (10 ½ sacks) and a season-ending ACL tear for Jalon Walker (5 ½ sacks).

Questions about quarterback play and pass rush leave the Falcons with plenty to figure out, and their early-season schedule doesn’t afford much time — none, really — to find the right answers.

Here are our game-by-game projections for the Falcons’ first season under Stefanski’s guidance.

Week 1 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Date, time, where to watch: Sept. 13, 1 p.m., FOX

The pick: Steelers

Record: 0-1

The Falcons haven’t beaten the Steelers since 2006, though they’ve only played five times in that span. Both teams are led by different coaches this year, but this feels like a bit of a low-scoring, grind-it-out game — which fits the bill of a vintage Steelers home win.

Week 2 vs. Carolina Panthers

Date, time, where to watch: Sept. 20, 1 p.m., FOX

The pick: Falcons

Record: 1-1

The Panthers swept the Falcons last year, but Carolina enters this season injury-riddled and without a handful of key players. Health concerns combined with the Falcons’ home-opener put Atlanta in a good spot for an early-season victory.

Week 3 at Green Bay Packers

Date, time, where to watch: Sept. 24, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime (Thursday Night Football)

The pick: Packers

Record: 1-2

Micah Parsons will begin the season on the reserve/physically unable to perform list, which means the star pass rusher won’t play in this game. That certainly helps the Falcons’ odds, but it’s a tall task asking Atlanta to beat the Packers at Lambeau Field in a primetime environment.

Week 4 at New Orleans Saints

Date, time, where to watch: Oct. 5, 8:15 p.m., ESPN (Monday Night Football)

The pick: Saints

Record: 1-3

The Saints are a big question mark, thanks in large part to rising second-year quarterback Tyler Shough, who had a strong end to his rookie season. If Shough carries momentum into this fall, the Saints have enough weapons around him to be formidable. If not, the Falcons very well could walk into New Orleans and nab a rivalry win in front of a big audience. There’s opportunity here.

Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Date, time, where to watch: Oct. 11, 8:20 p.m., NBC (Sunday Night Football)

The pick: Ravens

Record: 1-4

The end of a three-week run of primetime games brings another loss. The Ravens have a new coach in former Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, but Lamar Jackson is still around. He’ll be tough to stop for a Falcons front still down Pearce and Walker.

Week 6 vs. Chicago Bears

Date, time, where to watch: Oct. 18, 1 p.m., FOX

The pick: Falcons

Record: 2-4

The Bears took a step forward last season, snapping a 15-year drought without a playoff win, and they should be formidable this year, too. But in their return to 1 p.m. kickoffs — a tone-setter for the vast majority of their remaining games — the Falcons pull something of an upset. Their offense, with either Tagovailoa or Penix under center, will make enough plays to win.

Week 7 vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date, time, where to watch: Oct. 25, 1 p.m., FOX

The pick: 49ers

Record: 2-5

Former Falcons coach Raheem Morris, now the 49ers’ defensive coordinator, comes back to Mercedes-Benz Stadium and makes life difficult for his successors. The 49ers were bounced in the divisional round last season and have ambitions of going further this year. They’re fighting in a higher weight class than the Falcons.

Week 8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date, time, where to watch: Nov. 1, 1 p.m., FOX

The pick: Buccaneers

Record: 3-5

The Buccaneers are difficult to pin down, and the Falcons have won three straight games in Raymond James Stadium. Maybe it’s something in the Tampa Bay air for this franchise, or maybe it’s a sprinkle of mid-season momentum for this iteration of the Falcons. But no matter, this feels like a winnable game for Atlanta.

Week 9 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Madrid)

Date, time, where to watch: Nov. 8, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network

The pick: Bengals

Record: 3-6

After three consecutive seasons without making the playoffs, Bengals coach Zac Taylor needs a big year, and quarterback Joe Burrow hasn’t shied away from setting high expectations. Things may be different by Week 9, but it’s fair to buy some of the Bengals’ hype, and the Falcons are only 1-3 in international games. Cincinnati has a Week 6 bye, while the Falcons will be in their ninth game in as many weeks. This will be an uphill battle.

Week 10 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date, time, where to watch: Nov. 15, 1 p.m., CBS

The pick: Chiefs

Record: 3-7

The NFL schedule-makers did the Falcons no favors here. Not only did the team miss out on a post-Madrid bye week, but Patrick Mahomes awaits on the other side of a lengthy flight home. It’s the last of a 10-game sprint to the bye week, which figures to be a much-needed reprieve for the Falcons.

Week 11 BYE

Week 12 at Minnesota Vikings

Date, time, where to watch: Nov. 29, 1 p.m., FOX

The pick: Vikings

Record: 3-8

The Falcons beat the Vikings in Minneapolis last season, and quarterback questions on both sides make this a murky pick. Who starts for the Falcons? Is Kyler Murray in the midst of a resurgent, revitalizing campaign? Who knows — but the atmosphere in U.S. Bank Stadium is legitimate, and the Browns lost after the bye week in each of Stefanski’s final four seasons.

Week 13 vs. Detroit Lions

Date, time, where to watch: Dec. 6, 1 p.m., CBS

The pick: Lions

Record: 3-9

Detroit surprisingly missed the playoffs last season, but it has too much talent and winning pedigree to make that a normality. The Falcons will put up a good fight at home, but the Lions’ offense will be too tough to consistently stop and their pass rush will get enough pressure to hold on.

Week 14 at Cleveland Browns

Date, time, where to watch: Dec. 13, 1 p.m., CBS

The pick: Falcons

Record: 4-9

In his return to Cleveland, Stefanski gets a win despite unfavorable weather conditions. This doesn’t figure to be an overly consequential game, but it’ll matter for Stefanski and the handful of players and coaches he brought with him from Cleveland.

Week 15 at Washington Commanders

Date, time, where to watch: Dec. 20, 1 p.m., FOX

The pick: Commanders

Record: 4-10

Weather could be a factor here, too, but the Commanders feel primed for a bounceback in quarterback Jayden Daniels’ third season. A promising 2024 and a discouraging 2025 leave Daniels and the organization at a crossroads, but the Commanders have enough pieces on both sides of the ball to still play meaningful football into the latter part of December.

Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date, time, where to watch: TBD

The pick: Falcons

Record: 5-10

The Falcons are notorious for strong finishes, and with three games against a potentially lowly NFC South, history could repeat itself this winter. Atlanta and Tampa Bay have split the season series three of the last four years, with the Falcons’ 2024 sweep the lone exception. But the Buccaneers, with quarterback Baker Mayfield playing for a new contract, are in a peculiar spot, and the Falcons may be able to capitalize.