Considering obstacles, Braves’ division title is startling

On March 26 — the second day of the MLB season — FanGraphs published projected standings based on a million simulations of the 2026 season. (It would be interesting to know how many simulations included Braves manager Walt Weiss tackling then-Los Angeles Angels designated hitter and former Brave Jorge Soler in a bench-clearing melee.)

The model forecast an 84-78 record for the Braves, third in the NL East behind division champion Philadelphia and the New York Mets and tied for the last playoff spot with San Francisco. The simulations assigned the Braves a 46.5% probability of making the postseason and an 18.1% chance of winning the division.

That the 2026 NL East champion Braves outperformed the forecast is only part of the story. Division winners for the seventh time in nine years, with a 92-64 record going into the final six games of the year, the Braves did it despite encountering numerous hurdles along the way.

A recounting:

1. The 162-game suspension of designated hitter Jurickson Profar

It happened so long ago (March) that it’s easy to dismiss. But the Braves lost a productive switch-hitting bat when Profar was suspended for the entire season for failing a PED test for a second time.

A year ago, in 371 plate appearances, Profar had an OPS of .787, which would have ranked in the top 60 in MLB and second on the Braves had he had enough at-bats to qualify. Drake Baldwin and Dominic Smith have fairly filled the hole.

2. Starting rotation injuries

In the offseason, part of the Braves’ rationale for not pursuing an addition to the rotation with more urgency was that they had Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and Reynaldo López following ace Chris Sale. All had high ceilings but also injury history.

Where the Braves might have penciled them in for a combined 75 starts, injuries limited them to an underwhelming 21. That included none from Schwellenbach, whose .967 WHIP in 2025 was 11th among MLB pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, according to Stathead.

Behind Sale, the unlikely quartet of Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, Martín Pérez and trade-deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle have helped the Braves rank sixth in MLB in starting pitching ERA at 3.77, through Monday.

3. Austin Riley’s subpar play

His value spelled out in his having the largest contract in team history, Riley has had spurts of production and has been a dependable third baseman. But, going into Tuesday’s games, his OPS (.652) was tied for 126th of 135 qualified players, and his strikeout rate (31.8%) was fourth.

With 193 strikeouts and 17 home runs, he could become just the third player in MLB history to strike out 200 times in a season while hitting fewer than 20 home runs, according to Stathead.

That’s a considerable drag, especially at a position that is counted on for production.

4. Injuries to Baldwin and Ronald Acuña Jr.

The 2023 NL MVP and a five-time All-Star, Acuña missed a total of 52 games on two injury list stints for a left hamstring strain, nearly a third of the season.

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year, Baldwin was sidelined for 23 games in May and June with an oblique strain, an absence that was particularly impactful because he was top 15 in MLB in OPS, batting average, home runs, RBI and runs at the time of the injury and backup catcher Sean Murphy was also out with a fractured finger.

In Baldwin’s 23-game absence, Braves catchers hit .110 with no home runs, three RBI and one run, all lowest or tied for lowest in the majors for the position for that span.

5. Streaky offense

The Braves lineup produced feverishly in April, May and July (first, sixth and first in MLB in runs, respectively) but not at all in June and August (last and 27th).

Second baseman Ozzie Albies made his fourth All-Star Game, but his .607 OPS for the second half was 126th of 135 qualified players after Monday’s games. It says something about shortstop Ha-Seong Kim’s forgettable season that his .219 average for September going into Tuesday’s home game against Cincinnati was a major uptick.

But it also says something that, in offense-light June and August, the Braves still had a combined record of 26-25.

6. Bullpen turnover

The bullpen has shined — its 1.19 WHIP was second in MLB after Monday, and its 3.39 ERA was third — but it hasn’t happened how you might have expected.

Reliever Robert Suarez, one of the major acquisitions of the offseason, was dazzling as a setup man (0.56 ERA) but hasn’t pitched in a game since June 19 because of a forearm injury. (It appears he will return before the regular season ends Sunday.)

Four of the eight bullpen arms that made the opening day roster have been waived, released or sent down to Triple-A Gwinnett. Didier Fuentes (1.07 WHIP) and Dylan Dodd (0.90 WHIP) have had stunning breakthrough seasons.