Politics
Patricia Murphy: A columnist’s predictions for the 2025 legislative session
House Speaker Jon Burns (right) greets Gov. Brian Kemp before Burns speaks during a news conference to discuss education legislative priorities on the first day of legislative session at the State Capitol on Monday, Jan. 13, 2025, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/AJC)
Jan 15, 2025
They say the fastest way to make a bad prediction is to make any prediction at all. But the earliest days of the 2025 legislative session, which started Monday, are already offering clues about what we might be able to expect in the weeks and months ahead.
Here are my predictions for what’s ahead. I’ll see you back here at the end of the session to see how I did.
- Gov. Brian Kemp will continue to dominate. The governor might technically be a “lame duck” leader with less than two years left in his final term. But no other person in state comes close to Kemp’s continued dominance at the Capitol. Past years have handed Kemp primary challenges, budget crunches, pandemics, and attacks from inside and outside his party. But Kemp enters 2025 with the highest approval rating of any leader in Georgia, a $16 billion state budget surplus to draw from, and no one looking to challenge his political standing. In short, what the governor wants during this legislative session, he’s likely to get.
- Shadow campaigns will unfold in the state Senate. Albers, Anavitarte, Beach, Brass, Esteves, Halpern, Kennedy … the list of state senators who might be considering a run for higher office this year could practically double for a roll call of the chamber — and that goes for Democrats and Republicans. That means the often combative upper chamber could be even more so this year. Look for ambitious pols to offer base-friendly message bills, get into high-profile fights or just strike deals to show they’re ready to lead. With Attorney General Chris Carr already an announced candidate for governor and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones expected to eventually jump into the race, too, expect a domino effect of senators looking to fill those open slots, and potentially several others in 2026, along with agendas in the state Senate to lay the groundwork for a run.
- Democrats will mount new resistance. Unlike the soul searching coming from national Democrats lately, the newly installed House Minority Leader Carolyn Hugley and Senate Minority Leader Harold Jones II, both used the earliest hours of the 2025 session to send a message that Democrats aren’t about to give up the fight. Among Hugley’s first acts in office this year was leading a bloc of Democratic leaders in a vote against Jon Burns for House Speaker. And moments after Senate Republicans passed a bill to continue an investigation into Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis for her role in the Trump election interference case, Jones was in front of reporters to denounce Republicans’ “nonsense” and “foolishness.” The resistance, at least in Georgia, is alive and well.
- A litigation overhaul will pass. It’s starting to look like 2025 will be the year that business interests will get their longtime goal of overhauling litigation regulations, or “tort reform” in Georgia again. Along with being among Kemp’s top legislative to-do’s this year, a coalition of well-known brands like Waffle House and Uber are joining the fight in a way that could win over Georgia consumers along with lawmakers. Expect an all-out battle with the lawyers' lobby, including plenty of attorney-lawmakers in both chambers. But with Kemp, Burns, Jones and Waffle House on the same side of an issue, it’s hard to imagine some form of the measure won’t pass this year.
- IVF will get stuck in the weeds. Burns and Jones have signaled their intent to protect access to in vitro fertilization this year after the Alabama Supreme Court temporarily banned the procedure for the state in 2024. But some of Georgia’s most powerful Christian conservative groups are also pushing to change or limit what is legal in the medical procedure, which creates and often freezes embryos for later use. There is an important difference between simply protecting IVF and legally protecting and codifying IVF procedures commonly used today. The details of those differences could bog the effort down if Burns and Jones aren’t willing to fight some of their traditional allies on the issue.
- Transgender sports ban will pass. Burns told the Georgia Chamber’s Eggs & Issues breakfast Tuesday that the Georgia House will focus on several education initiatives, including barring transgender girls from participating in girls’ sports in the state. “A vast majority of Georgians, including myself, believe girls should only be competing against girls in sports,” he said. With public opinion polls showing increasing numbers of Americans being comfortable with limits to transgender athletes playing high school sports, too, Republicans are confident that they are on the same side as a majority of voters on this issue. Look for approval of transgender sports ban early in the session.
- Medicaid expansion gets another look. Kemp remains staunchly opposed to Medicaid reform. But that doesn’t mean the many people in the Legislature looking to succeed him as governor aren’t open to the idea. An effort to expand Medicaid under Obamacare failed by one vote in a committee last year, and only after Kemp intervened. It won’t pass this session, either, but 2025 could be the year that the broadly popular idea gets one step closer to reality.
- Expect the unexpected. No matter what we think we know heading into a new session, some wild card issue or event is always bound to rear its head. If there’s a single prediction that’s bound to come true, it’s that surprises at the General Assembly are always sure to happen.
About the Author
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
