The race to the White House could not be any more unclear. With young voters unhappy with their options and the narrow gap in national and state polls, this debate could shift the tide for President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

According to ABC’s polling analysis team, 538, debates matter a whole lot more in closely divided presidential battles than you might think: “On average, polls have moved by 2.4 points in the two weeks after the first presidential debate of each cycle.”

And with Trump and Biden neck-and-neck, 2.4 points could make all the difference. Read the full analysis here.

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Michael Parnow, a poll manager at Canton City Hall, assists voters at the Riverr-Green subdivision in Canton during the special election for the state senate seat in Cherokee on Tuesday, August 26,2025, to complete the term of former state Sen. Brandon Beach, which runs through January 2027.
(Miguel Martinez/ AJC)

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

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An aerial view captures a large area under construction for a new data center campus on Thursday, May 29, 2025. Developed by QTS, the data center campus near Fayetteville is one of the largest under construction in Georgia. (Miguel Martinez/AJC)

Credit: Miguel Martinez-Jimenez