The race to the White House could not be any more unclear. With young voters unhappy with their options and the narrow gap in national and state polls, this debate could shift the tide for President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

According to ABC’s polling analysis team, 538, debates matter a whole lot more in closely divided presidential battles than you might think: “On average, polls have moved by 2.4 points in the two weeks after the first presidential debate of each cycle.”

And with Trump and Biden neck-and-neck, 2.4 points could make all the difference. Read the full analysis here.

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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach Fla., on his way back to the White House, Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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Travelers wait in Concourse F, the international terminal, at Hartsfield-Jackson airport in Atlanta on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. (Arvin Temkar / AJC)

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