The race to the White House could not be any more unclear. With young voters unhappy with their options and the narrow gap in national and state polls, this debate could shift the tide for President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

According to ABC’s polling analysis team, 538, debates matter a whole lot more in closely divided presidential battles than you might think: “On average, polls have moved by 2.4 points in the two weeks after the first presidential debate of each cycle.”

And with Trump and Biden neck-and-neck, 2.4 points could make all the difference. Read the full analysis here.

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FILE - Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear waves to a cheering crowd after his speech during the Ben Nelson Gala Nov. 7, 2025, in Omaha, Neb. (AP Photo/Rebecca S. Gratz, File)

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Fans celebrate in the stands after Cape Verde defeated Eswatini in a World Cup qualifying soccer match at Estádio Nacional in Praia, Cape Verde, Monday, Oct. 13, 2025, to clinch their qualification for the 2026 World Cup. (Cristiano Barbosa/AP)

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