For Americans confused about Venezuela, don’t worry. It’s complicated.
If you’re confused by what is going on in Venezuela, it’s because it’s complicated. And the facts won’t stand still long enough to write them down.
Here’s what I know.
The military operation: Brilliant. This was a masterpiece of coordination between U.S. military special operators and intel people.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and wife Cilia Flores were guarded by a Cuban Army special forces team called Avispas Negras. Thirty-two Cubans died in the operation; U.S. forces sustained no casualties. More than 150 aircraft and numerous U.S. special operators and intel agents took part in the operation.
Was it a police operation? Watch this video. Sure didn’t look like a police operation. That said, Maduro was arraigned in federal district court in New York on Monday morning.
Putting stability over democracy: President Donald Trump in his Jan. 3 news conference and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the Sunday talk shows said they were going to leave the Maduro government — minus Maduro — in place and work with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the new president. Rodríguez herself said she is only the interim president, with Maduro remaining the constitutional president of the country. Oddly enough, the minister of the Interior, who was indicted in New York along with Maduro on the same four counts, continues as the minister of Interior (Homeland Security equivalent), with the Venezuelan police reporting to him.
What are the stakes?
Is this really all about the Venezuelan oil industry? The Trump administration is counting on Rodríguez to get the devastated oil industry back on its feet with U.S. oil corporations — presumably ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips — investing billions of dollars to increase Venezuelan oil production.
Trump believes oil revenues will cover rebuilding dilapidated oil industry infrastructure, fund reconstruction efforts, repay the oil companies for losses when their holdings were nationalized in 2007 and compensate Venezuelans in the U.S. for confiscated property.
And those energy companies will certainly want a return on their investment. So yes, the oil is a big deal.
Democracy? María Corina Machado is by far the leading politician in the opposition to Maduro. When the Supreme Court disqualified her as a presidential candidate in 2024, she selected Edmundo González to run in her place and then campaigned for González across Venezuela from the back of a pickup truck. Because of her efforts, González won the election by 40 points. On Jan. 3, Trump dismissed Machado as “not respected.” A Venezuelan reporter told me the sense in Caracas is that nothing has changed except that Maduro is gone. In fact, the police arrested 14 reporters Monday. We have removed Maduro, but his henchmen remain in place. Placing stability ahead of democracy risks turning Venezuelans against U.S. efforts.
Unilateralism: That’s the word political scientists use for going it alone. That is exactly what the Trump Administration has done in Venezuela. By ignoring our allies in Latin America, Europe and Asia, no one is going to help the effort to reconstruct Venezuelan democracy. Furthermore, every president in every Latin American country through which drugs are produced or transported is wondering if Trump’s seizure of Maduro means he will do the same in Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia.
Power politics: Big countries calling the shots sounds great since we are one of the big guys. But so are Russia and China. Leaders in Moscow and Beijing must be high fiving. Putin describes the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a police action. The Chinese consider Taiwan to be a breakaway province with no right to call itself a sovereign nation. Trump has essentially given them a free hand.
What should happen next?
My suggestion: Prioritizing short-term stability over democracy and good governance is super risky. The 70% who voted for the opposition are unhappy today. Imagine public sentiment 90 days or a year from now. Rebuilding the oil industry is insufficient and it will take years. We must also help Venezuelans rebuild democracy and confidence in their country’s government.
Job No. 1 is to identify influential Venezuelans who could work behind the scenes — maybe even outside the country — with both the opposition and Maduro loyalists to negotiate a phased transition that replaces Maduro’s people with competent, respected leaders. These facilitators could come from business, legal, academic or faith communities.
People who talk to each other and listen equally intently can negotiate a phased transition to real democracy. That’s the path to the Venezuela we all want to see: a self-sustaining democracy with a growing economy.
Charles Shapiro is a retired career diplomat who served as U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela 2002-2004. Shapiro is professor of practice at the Nunn School at Georgia Tech and president emeritus of the World Affairs Council of Atlanta. He also delivered the Atlanta Journal in 1961.
