Sunday's MLB clinching scenarios: Phillies, Astros control destinies for final 2 playoff spots

The final day of Major League Baseball's regular season is here, and two playoff spots are still up for grabs.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks are fighting for the National League's final wild card, while the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are in a race for the American League West.

In the NL, if the Phillies can beat the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, they’re in. The D-backs have to beat the San Diego Padres and hope the Phillies lose to make the postseason for the first time since 2023.

A similar situation exists in the AL, where the Astros will clinch if they beat the Athletics. The Rangers need to beat the Minnesota Twins and hope the Astros lose.

The D-backs looked like a playoff longshot just a few days ago, but a six-game winning streak pulled them within a game of the struggling Phillies in the NL wild-card race. Philadelphia has lost four in a row. Arizona has the tiebreaker if the teams finish with the same record.

Ten teams have already clinched postseason spots

The two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers are once again among the best teams in the big leagues, and they'll have several challengers in October, including the majors-leading Milwaukee Brewers and the Rays. Los Angeles is rolling into the postseason and four-time MVP Shohei Ohtani returned to the lineup on Wednesday after a stint on the injured list. He appears ready for playoff baseball.

The San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians all clinched invites to the postseason on Thursday, and Cleveland ensured Saturday it will win the AL Central over Chicago. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves are also already in the playoff field. Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, a three-time AL MVP, is dealing with a right calf strain that could keep him out through at least the Wild Card Series.

MLB's current playoff picture

American League

No. 6 White Sox at No. 3 Rangers/Astros

No. 5 Red Sox at No. 4 Yankees

No. 2 Guardians and No. 1 Rays receive a bye into the Division Series

National League

No. 6 Phillies/D-backs at No. 3 Braves

No. 5 Cubs at No. 4 Padres

No. 2 Dodgers and No. 1 Brewers receive a bye into the Division Series.

A sub-.500 team could be in line to make the playoffs

No team with a losing record has made the postseason in a full major league season. That could change Sunday.

The Astros and Rangers are both 80-81, and one of them will win the AL West. Houston owns the tiebreaker if both teams lose their regular season finales.

MVP races, stats to watch

MLB's major awards probably won't have much drama this season.

Both MVP races have strong favorites with Chicago's Pete Crow-Armstrong running away with the NL honor while Houston's Yordan Alvarez is the probable choice in the AL, though Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero has also had a fantastic season. Alvarez had an outside chance at the Triple Crown a few days ago, but those odds have mostly diminished. His .315 batting average leads the league, but his 42 homers are one behind Baltimore's Pete Alonso and his 105 RBIs are six behind Alonso.

For the Cy Young Award, Milwaukee flame thrower Jacob Misiorowski and New York ace Cam Schlittler are the favorites in the NL and AL, respectively.

The Rookie of the Year races also look set with Cincinnati's Sal Stewart and his 111-RBI season the leader in the NL and Detroit's Kevin McGonigle the favorite in the AL.

What is the MLB playoff format?

There are 12 teams that qualify for MLB’s postseason, including six teams from both the AL and NL. The three division winners in each league get seeds No. 1 through No. 3, ranked by win-loss record. Then the three wild-card teams get seeds No. 4 through No. 6, also ranked by win-loss record.

The top two teams with the best record in both the AL and NL automatically advance to the Division Series. The other eight teams play in the Wild Card Series, which is a best-of-three format beginning on Tuesday, Sept. 29. In both the AL and NL, the No. 6 seed will travel to face the No. 3 seed while the No. 5 seed goes to No. 4. The higher seed hosts all three games.

The winners then advance to the best-of-five Division Series, followed by the best-of-seven League Championship Series and a best-of-seven World Series between the winners of the AL and NL.

What is the MLB postseason schedule?

Wild Card Series: Sept. 29-Oct. 1 (NBC/Peacock)

Division Series: Oct. 3-10 (AL on TBS, NL on FOX/FS1)

Championship Series: Oct. 11-20 (AL on TBS, NL on FOX/FS1)