Smart nominations make it tough to pick Emmy winners

Dang, you can really count on the Emmys to spoil the fun.

It used to be that you could count on at least half the nominees for the Emmys being so absurd, you could sharpen your teeth and vocabulary at the same time by ranting with something approaching critical glee.

But not this year.

The 66th incarnation of that onanistic orgy will air live from the Nokia Theater on Monday on NBC, with Seth Meyers hosting. The show will probably be fairly awful, because it always is, no matter how good the host is. Meyers could counterbalance some of the bloat, and I would expect a tribute to Robin Williams, who never received any Emmy love while he was alive but whose contributions to the medium can be seen in every comic who colors outside the lines today.

There will be suspense in some categories, of course, but overall, because most of the nominees are worthy, the outrage potential is considerably lessened. Oh, I have a few quibbles with the nominations, but they’re pretty minor. I don’t understand why Melissa McCarthy gets a nod for “Mike & Molly,” a grade C sitcom if there ever was one. And it’s criminal that the TV academy omitted a nomination for Tatiana Maslany in “Orphan Black,” but when it comes to what happens on Monday, if Lizzy Caplan bested Robin Wright, or Aaron Paul won over Peter Dinklage, I’d be fine with that.

It’s not necessarily that the TV academy has gotten smart, but, rather, that just as the gap between the rich and poor is said to be widening, the gap between universally acknowledged TV greatness and the rest of the pack is yawning like the Grand Canyon this year. In offering my humble wishes about Monday’s winners, I agonized a lot in some categories because the nominations are generally worthy.

Here’s a list of nominees in the major categories, along with my picks for each one. These aren’t necessarily the ones I think will win — frankly, I think “Orange Is the New Black” may win over “Silicon Valley,” but I’m partial to the sustained genius of Mike Judge’s new show.

Best actress, drama

Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey"; Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"; Robin Wright, "House of Cards"; Lizzy Caplan, "Masters of Sex"; Claire Danes, "Homeland"; Kerry Washington, "Scandal." My pick: Robin Wright

Best actor, drama

Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"; Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"; Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"; Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom"; Woody Harrelson, "True Detective"; Matthew McConaughey, "True Detective." My pick: Matthew McConaughey

Best supporting actress, drama

Anna Gunn, "Breaking Bad"; Christine Baranski, "The Good Wife"; Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey"; Joanne Froggatt, "Downton Abbey"; Lena Headey, "Game of Thrones"; Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men." My pick: Anna Gunn

Best supporting actor, drama

Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad"; Jim Carter, "Downton Abbey"; Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones"; Mandy Patinkin, "Homeland"; Jon Voight, "Ray Donovan"; Josh Charles, "The Good Wife." My pick: Peter Dinklage

Outstanding drama series

"Breaking Bad," "Downton Abbey," "Game of Thrones," "House of Cards," "Mad Men," "True Detective." My pick: "True Detective."

Lead actress, comedy series

Melissa McCarthy. "Mike & Molly"; Lena Dunham, "Girls"; Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"; Taylor Schilling, "Orange Is the New Black"; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"; Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation." My pick: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Lead actor, comedy series

Ricky Gervais, "Derek"; Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes"; Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"; William H. Macy, "Shameless"; Louis CK, "Louis"; Jim Parson, "The Big Bang Theory." My pick: Louis CK

Supporting actress, comedy series

Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"; Alison Janney, "Mom"; Kate Mulgrew, "Orange Is the New Black,": Kate McKinnon, various characters, "Saturday Night Live"; Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"; Anna Chlumsky, "Veep." My pick: Alison Janney

Supporting actor, comedy series

Adam Driver, "Girls"; Andre Braugher, "Brooklyn Nine-Nine"; Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"; Fred Armisen, various characters, "Portlandia"; Tony Hale, "Veep." My pick: Tony Hale

Outstanding comedy series

"Louie," "Modern Family," "Orange Is the New Black," "Silicon Valley," "Veep"; "The Big Bang Theory." My pick: "Silicon Valley."

Lead actress, miniseries or movie

Jessica Lange and Sarah Paulson, "American Horror Story: Coven"; Cicely Tyson, "Trip to Bountiful"; Helena Bonham Carter, "Burton and Taylor"; Minnie Driver, "Return to Zero"; Kristen Wiig, "The Spoils of Babylon." My pick: Cicely Tyson

Lead actor, miniseries or movie

Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Dancing on the Edge"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Normal Heart"; Benedict Cumberbatch, "Sherlock"; Billy Bob Thornton and Martin Freeman, "Fargo" ; Idris Elba, "Luther." My pick: Billy Bob Thornton

Supporting actress, miniseries or movie

Frances Conroy, Kathy Bates, Angela Bassett, "American Horror Story: Coven"; Julia Roberts, "The Normal Heart"; Ellen Burstyn, "Flowers in the Attic"; Allison Tolman, "Fargo." My pick: Allison Tolman

Supporting actor, miniseries or movie

Colin Hanks, "Fargo"; Jim Parsons, Matt Bomer, Alfred Molina, Joe Mantello, all for "The Normal Heart"; Martin Freeman, "Sherlock." My pick: Matt Bomer

Outstanding variety show

"The Colbert Report," "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart," "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon," "Jimmy Kimmel Live," "Real Time With Bill Maher"; "Saturday Night Live." My pick: "The Colbert Report"

Outstanding miniseries

"American Horror Story: Coven," "Bonnie & Clyde," "Fargo," "Luther," "The White Queen," "Treme." My pick: "Fargo"

Outstanding reality competition program

"Dancing With the Stars," "Project Runway," "So You Think You Can Dance," "The Amazing Race," "The Voice," "Top Chef." My pick: "Dancing With the Stars"

Outstanding television movie

"Killing Kennedy," "The Normal Heart," "Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight," "Sherlock: His Last Vow," "The Trip to Bountiful." My pick: "The Normal Heart"