Delta has high hopes for 2026, but there’s a caveat

Delta Air Lines might bring in record profits in 2026 — if all goes well.

It depends on the “geopolitical environment, whether that’s international or domestic policy,” CEO Ed Bastian told reporters as the Atlanta-based airline announced fourth quarter results Tuesday.

This is one of the reasons Delta gave a broad range of forecasted 2026 profits, Bastian said.

“If everything goes well, hopefully we’ll be at the higher end of that range,” he said. The airline also announced Tuesday it will buy 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliners.

“But we’re not going to project or commit to a record earnings until we understand the uncertainties a little bit better.”

That’s, of course, what happened last year.

The company predicted its centennial year would coincide with record profitability, but the Trump administration’s tariffs and ensuing economic fallout disrupted those plans.

A $200 million hit from the government shutdown didn’t help either.

Bastian said the company still has an “upbeat” forecast for 2026, despite the ongoing “uncertainty.”

“We are, I think, all as a society, if not an economy, better prepared this second year of the new administration to deal with that maybe a little quicker, and not to be thrown off as easily,” he said.

Despite last year’s surprises, the company in its Tuesday news release announced the last quarter of 2025 set a revenue record with $16 billion, adding up to more than $63 billion for the full year.

Full-year profits came to $5 billion, and Delta will hand out $1.3 billion in employee profit-sharing next month.

The company predicts an estimated 20% year-over-year earnings growth in 2026, with a top-end range that would set a record.

“I think it’ll be a strong year. Whether it’ll be a record year or not, I don’t know. It has the potential to be,” he said.

Delta’s new order for Boeing Dreamliners comes about a decade after the airline deferred and then canceled a previous order for the jets, known as one of Boeing’s most advanced and fuel-efficient aircraft.

The new planes are set to start arriving in 2031.

Delta has been the lone major U.S. carrier without the American manufacturer’s wide-body 787s built for international routes.

It has 100 other Boeing narrow-body planes on order, which it expects to start receiving this year, but had recently only been taking on new aircraft from European manufacturer Airbus.

“It’s pretty tough to operate in the international environment arena where we see a considerable amount of growth being reliant only on a single source provider,” Bastian said.

Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta Air Lines, welcomes employees and participants during the uniform reveal at the employee fashion show held at the Delta Flight Museum on Monday, Nov. 3, 2025. (Miguel Martinez/AJC)

Delta’s economic perspective

The reasons for Delta’s optimistic 2026 forecast, Bastian said, was that its target premium consumer remains in a good spot in 2026.

Last week the airline set a record for bookings, he said. Corporate travel forecasts are strong, and its lucrative American Express partnership saw 2025 revenue grow 11% to $8.2 billion.

These premium travelers continue to be at the center of Delta’s strategy. About 60% of revenues this year will come from premium products, he said.

Plus, “effectively none” of its seat growth in 2026 will come from the main cabin.

The lower end of the consumer spectrum, Bastian acknowledged, “is struggling. We fortunately do not live there. That’s not where our target base of traveler comes from,” he said.

And the low-cost carrier industry, he said, is seeing a “shake out.”

Allegiant Air on Sunday announced a plan to acquire competitor Sun Country Airlines, consolidating two low-cost leisure carriers.

Bastian declined to comment on the deal but said there have been “too many low-end seats in terms of price-chasing, not enough low-end demand. Exacerbated by the fact that the low-end consumer is not in a healthy way.”

“We want the low-end marketplace to do well,” he said. “We want it to be stable. And with the amount of instability that you see there at the present time, it’s going to be a little choppy for all of us.”

Despite the year’s global tensions, Bastian said the company’s international travel business is faring well. It reported 2025 as a top-3 year for international profitability.

However, he noted Canadian travel has not returned in large numbers after 2025 saw a Canadian boycott of U.S. products, and China capacity remains well below pre-COVID totals.

Bastian said he’s hopeful the upcoming summer World Cup will “break some of the international logjam of travel.”