Four weeks after the 2008 November elections, signals are already emerging that the 2010 elections may be difficult for the GOP, as Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida announced he would not run for re-election.
Martinez joins Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas in already being on the "casualty list" of lawmakers who opt against a re-elction bid.
The difference is that Republicans will have a much better shot keeping the seat from Kansas as compared to Florida.
Poll numbers from mid November showed how difficult it would be for Martinez to win another six year term, as his approval ratings were mired in the 30s.
That means it would have been a tough fight. Not to say Martinez couldn't win, but it would not have been easy.
So even before the U.S. Senate is fully elected for the 111th Congress, we have two openings for the 112th, both on the Republican side.
That was the ratio in the 2008 elections for the GOP, where five Republican Senators opted to retire. Zero Democrats made that choice.
For 2010, it's now 2-0 in favor of the GOP.
Candidate recruitment will be a very important part of this race for both parties. I'm sure members of Congress from both parties will be interested, but it doesn't mean they are the right choice.
But we should remember that Democrats definitely won the candidate recruiting battle the last two elections. We'll see if they can repeat that for 2010.
These things tend to run in cycles, and when one party realizes it isn't going to be in power, many of the older members tend to decide to move on to greener pastures.
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