PSR breakdown, upset predictions and more fast facts for the playoffs first round

The first round of the football playoffs is this week with 123 games scheduled from Cairo to Hartwell to Ringgold to Folkston. Here’s a primer.

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How it works: The 251 playoff teams are vying for eight championships, each playing in 32-team draws, although Class 4A-2A Private will play with 27 teams and five byes. The first four rounds are played on the home fields of the higher-seeded teams. The finals are Dec. 15-16 (Tuesday-Wednesday) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

What’s new: The playoff selection format is radically different this season. Historically, the 32-team brackets comprise four teams from each of the eight regions, with region champions seeded first, second-place teams next, and so on. The past two seasons, the GHSA used computer rankings to pick and seed playoff teams in four classes while giving preferential seeding based on region finish and guarantees that top-four region finishers qualified. This season, all eight classes are seeded 1-32 on by GHSA’s computer standings, called the Post Season Rankings. Region finish no longer matters except to guarantee a top-16 team to region champions. The format is designed with the intention of getting the best 32 teams in the playoffs and give stronger regions more of the higher seeds.

Seeds: The No. 1 seeds are Valdosta (7A), Thomas County Central (6A), Blessed Trinity (5A), Peach County (4A), Appling County (3A), Heard County (2A), Lincoln County (A) and Prince Avenue Christian (4A-2A Private). AJC Varsity rankings disagree with those seeds in four classes, giving No. 1 rankings to Buford (7A), Cartersville (5A), Sandy Creek (4A) and Johnson County (A). Appling County is the only team among any of those that has never won a state title.

Power regions: Under the GHSA’s historical seeding format, only region champions got what amounted to a top-eight seed. With the PSR, a region can get as many top-eight seeds as it qualifies. Six regions have three top-eight seeds. They are Region 1-7A (No. 1 Valdosta, No. 5 Lowndes, No. 7 Colquitt County), Region 2-6A (No. 1 Thomas County Central, No. 2-seed Lee County, No. 4 Coffee), Region 7-5A (No. 2 Cartersville, No. 4 Dalton, No. 7 Cass), Region 2-4A (No. 1 Peach County, No. 2 Troup, No. 8 Baldwin), Region 3-3A (No. 1 Appling County, No. 2 Toombs County, No. 8 Pierce County) and Region 5-3A in 4A-2A Private (No. 2 Holy Innocents’, No. 4 Lovett, No. 6 Wesleyan).

Newbies: Lake Oconee Academy, Mt. Bethel Christian and Utopian Academy will be making their first playoff appearances. Lake Oconee played its first varsity season in 2021. Utopian and Mt. Bethel played their first seasons in 2024.

Drought breakers:Murray County is making its first playoff appearance since 2005, breaking the longest drought. Making their first appearances in this decade are Lassiter (2016), Woodland of Stockbridge (2016), Walker (2017), Howard (2018), Bradwell Institute (2019), Heritage of Conyers (2019) and South Effingham (2019).

Regulars: Those that have made the playoffs each of the past 20 seasons or more are Marist (streak began in 1983), Peach County (1991), Buford (1999), Cook and Fitzgerald (2000), Lovett and Ware County (2002), Cairo (2003), Heard County (2005), Callaway, Carver of Columbus and Savannah Christian (2006) and Burke County, Darlington and Tucker (2007).

Missing you: Eight teams with playoff streaks of 10 seasons or longer did not make it. They are Glynn Academy (had appeared since 2008), Cedar Grove (2010), Carver of Atlanta (2012), Mill Creek (2014), Rome (2015) and Eastside, Jenkins and Morgan County (2016).

History seekers: Teams that have never won state-playoff games, aside from the three first-timers, are LaFayette (first season 1923), Beach (1950), Bacon County (1951), Hephzibah (1954), Treutlen (1957), Glascock County (1974) and Howard (2008). Those that haven’t won in at least 15 years are East Laurens (last win 2000), Claxton (2001), Murray County (2001), Washington (2004), Randolph-Clay (2005), Mount Zion of Jonesboro (2008), Shaw (2008), Dunwoody (2009), East Jackson (2009), North Clayton (2009) and Lassiter (2011).

Only Randolph-Clay (playing Telfair County) and Hephzibah (playing Pike County) are favored to win by the Maxwell Ratings. (Note: Teams here that have won region, but not state, playoff games are LaFayette in 1969, Beach in 1988 and Bacon County and Treutlen in 1991.)

Not fair? Seven teams that won their regions outright (with no tiebreakers) are seeded below teams they defeated and finished above in region standings. Those seven, with the teams they beat out in region play, are North Paulding (North Cobb), Ware County (Benedictine), LaGrange (Central of Carrollton), Jefferson (North Oconee), Dougherty (Cairo), Dublin (Bleckley County) and Emanuel County Institute (Portal). All those pairs are seeded in the same group of eight (ie, 1-8 or 9-16) except No. 13 North Paulding and No. 8 North Cobb. The 1-8 seeds are guaranteed two home playoff games if they advance while the 9-16 seeds are guaranteed one.

Less fair? Two teams missed the playoffs while teams they defeated and finished above in region standings made it. One was Douglas County, which has itself to blame for three forfeits (ineligible player) from September non-region games. Douglas County finished 2-2 in region play, ahead of East Coweta (6-4, 1-3), a team Douglas County beat 27-24 last month, but Douglas County’s final record with the forfeits was 3-7. The other is Pickens. The Dragons finished third in Region 6-4A with a 3-2 region record, 4-6 overall. The fourth-place team, Gilmer (5-5, 2-3), went in Pickens’ place, though Pickens won the game between the two 48-41 on Oct. 30.

Delay of game: The GHSA moved the Class 4A first round to Saturday because of an officials shortage. Three of those 16 games — Bainbridge at Cairo, New Hampstead at Stephenson and Mount Zion of Jonesboro at Troup — received permission to play on Thursday. The GHSA has moved between one and three classes to Saturday for the first round each season since 2020 except for 2025. Before 2020, it never happened.

Best first-round games: There are no games between Top 10 teams in the first round, which is something the GHSA wanted by going to computer seeding. Here are the seven games between top-16 teams in the Maxwell Ratings: No. 7 Gainesville vs. No. 15 Lassiter and No. 14 Kell vs. No. 11 Houston County in Class 6A; No. 5 LaGrange vs. No. 10 Ola and No. 14 Jones County vs. No. 9 Lithonia in 5A; No. 12 Calhoun vs. No. 14 Howard in 4A; and No. 11 Carver of Columbus vs. No. 14 Burke County and No. 12 Northeast vs. No. 16 Thomson in 3A. (Remember those are Maxwell rankings, not GHSA seeds.)

Upset alert: Seven road teams (who are seeded lower) are favored in the Maxwell Ratings to win their first-round games. They are Cook (over Fannin County by 27), Roswell (over Effingham County by 17), Newnan (over Habersham Central by 11), Darlington (over Mt. Bethel Christian by 11), East Coweta (over Denmark by 9), Houston County (over Kell by 8), Hebron Christian (over Eagle’s Landing Christian by 7), New Manchester (over Heritage of Conyers by 5), Dodge County (over Berrien by 4), Oconee County (over Northwest Whitfield by 3), Lithonia (over Jones County by 2) and Worth County (over Lamar County by 1).

How’s your drive? The longest road trip of the first round will be Camden County’s 333-mile journey to Grayson. Other long ones are Cedartown to Ware County (326 miles), Richmond Hill to North Paulding (300) and Cook to Fannin County (298). However, Harrison will drive only 6.6 miles to McEachern.

Super 11s present: Every AJC Super 11 player’s team made the playoffs. Valdosta running back Marquis Fennell and Blessed Trinity linebacker DJ Jacobs play for No. 1 seeds. Lee County wide receiver Jaden Upshaw plays for a No. 2 seed, Lee County, which plays at home Friday against Northside of Warner Robins, another team with a Super 11, Elijah Patmon. Creekside running back Gary Walker plays for a defending champion that was seeded only eighth, well short of the team’s No. 2 Class 6A ranking. Other Super 11s and their teams’ seeds are Kelsey Adams of Hughes (No. 10 in 6A), Jordan Agbanoma of Grayson (No. 12 in 7A), Kamarui Dorsey of Hampton (No. 11 in 4A), Moonie Gipson of Kell (No. 15 in 6A), Kwame Green of Stephenson (No. 7 in 4A), Ta’Shawn Poole of Howard (No. 23 in 6A).