AJC Varsity

Latest PSR standings have 13 fourth-place teams projected to miss the playoffs

The most striking is Warner Robins, a 5-2 team that Maxwell rates as the 23rd-best team in Class 5A
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(Abbey Cutrer / AJC)
(Abbey Cutrer / AJC)
Todd Holcomb
By
1 hour ago

Thirteen football teams that will finish fourth in their regions – and were formerly guaranteed playoff berths – won’t make their 32-team playoff brackets this season with the GHSA’s Post Season Rankings, according to Maxwell Ratings projections.

In nine of those cases, that’s a credit to the PSR and the GHSA’s new playoff format, which were designed to qualify the best 32 teams regardless of region finish.

Since 1996, when the GHSA expanded the playoffs to 32 teams in each class, teams finishing in the top four of their regions were guaranteed playoff berths.

The nine teams that will miss the playoffs in Maxwell’s projections of the final PSR standings — and also are ranked outside Maxwell’s top 32 teams based on performance — are Mill Creek (Region 8-7A), Decatur (4-6A), Hiram (5-6A), M.L. King (4-5A), Southeast Bulloch (3-4A), Pickens (6-4A), East Jackson (8-4A), Wilkinson County (5-A) and B.E.S.T. Academy (7-A).

The new playoff format could end Mill Creek’s playoff streak at 12 seasons.

The four fourth-place teams that will deserve playoff berths, but won’t get them in Maxwell’s projections, are West Forsyth (6-7A), Warner Robins (2-5A), Sumter County (1-3A) and Metter (3-2A).

The most striking is Warner Robins, a 5-2 team that Maxwell rates as the 23rd-best team in Class 5A. But Warner Robins is a Maxwell underdog in upcoming games against Ola, Jones County and Perry.

And if Warner Robins beats Perry, the projected weakest of the three, Maxwell projects that Perry will be out of the playoffs, instead. Perry, despite its 2-4 record, is Maxwell’s No. 18 team in Class 5A. Perry has lost to four Top 10 teams.

Teams in Region 2-5A do not have PSR-friendly schedules. Warner Robins elected to play Newton, the No. 2 team in Class 7A, and lost, as expected. But the bigger loss came against crosstown Northside, a Class 6A team stuck in one of the state’s strongest regions.

Northside’s final won-lost record is expected to take a hit as it enters region play and faces current and former Top 10 teams Thomas County Central, Lee County, Coffee and Houston County. The trickle-down effect could doom Warner Robins.

Below are the PSR standings as calculated by Maxwell. The list shows each team’s PSR current standings and its projected finish. The GHSA’s published PSR standings are different and less accurate because of school athletic directors’ tardiness in reporting scores.

The projections also continue to show an underseeding of Buford, the consensus No. 1 team in Class 7A. Despite multiple top-five national rankings, the Wolves are projected to be the No. 9 seed in 7A, potentially putting them on the road for every playoff game after the first round.

Class 7A

Class 6A

Class 5A

Class 4A

Class 3A

Class 2A

Class A

Class 4A-2A Private