AJC Varsity

Which football teams are most underseeded in each class in latest PSR update?

State title contenders Buford, Gainesville, Marist and Sandy Creek still aren’t getting their due in the GHSA’s PSR standings, which will determine their seed for the state playoffs.
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(Abbey Cutrer / AJC)
(Abbey Cutrer / AJC)
Todd Holcomb
By
1 hour ago

Breaking from decades of tradition, the GHSA is picking and seeding playoff teams in its eight 32-team brackets using a math model and not region finish this football season.

The model is called the Post Season Rankings, and it’s based on a winning percentage and opponents’ winning percentage.

Here is one team in each classification that the PSR is projected to underseed compared to how AJC Varsity ranks those teams. Common culprits to underseeding are playing good out-of-state teams or teams whose won-lost records bely their actual strength.

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Class 7A: Buford, the consensus No. 1 team, stands No. 4 in this week’s PSR standings but will finish No. 10, according to Maxwell, even if the Wolves win their remaining four games. They are heavily favored in each. Colquitt County and East Coweta are projected to finish 7-3 and finish ahead of Buford. Buford has impressive but discounted victories over Mallard Creek of North Carolina and Miami Central of Florida and one against Grayson, a Top 10 team that has only a 4-3 record.

Class 6A: Gainesville is No. 4 in the AJC’s rankings but projected to get the No. 11 seed, even if the Red Elephants win out and defeat No. 5 Milton on Oct. 23. A No. 11 seed could play a road playoff game as early as the second round. Gainesville’s losses are to Buford and East St. Louis, an Illinois team ranked No. 30 nationally by MaxPreps.

Class 5A: Marist is ranked No. 3 (and has finished no worse than No. 7 in every AJC final poll since 2016) but projected to get the No. 10 seed. Marist has lost to Blessed Trinity, the No. 2 team in 5A, and to Brookwood, the No. 8 team in Class 7A, both by six points or less. A No. 10 seed could put Marist on the road in the second round for the first time since 2019.

Class 4A: Sandy Creek is projected to get the No. 5 seed despite a No. 1 ranking and a 22-game winning streak. That could put a reigning champion on the road in the quarterfinals and beyond. Sandy Creek’s best two opponents — Grayson and Douglas Conty — are 8-7 combined, which serves to underestimate the Patriots’ quality wins over Class 7A opponents.

Class 3A: Appling County is ranked No. 2 but projected to get the No. 13 seed. The Pirates are 7-0 but must play No. 1 Toombs County on Oct. 30 and No. 3 Pierce County on Nov. 6. Maxwell predicts Appling will lose both, but the Appling-Pierce game could decide which ones plays on the road in the second round.

Class 2A: No one in Class 2A will have reason to complain, according to Maxwell. Cook is the 14th-best team but projected to get the No. 23 seed, but Cook plays in a region with four Top 10 teams — Jeff Davis, Thomasville, Fitzgerald and Berrien. In previous seasons, Cook or one of the others wouldn’t make the playoffs. Same goes for Brooks County, the 15th-best team in this class and sixth-best team in this region, according to Maxwell, but projected to make the playoffs as the 25th seed.

Class A: Clinch County is ranked No. 10 but projected to get the No. 18 seed, which would mean a road game in the first round. Clinch scheduled two Top 10 teams from a higher class (Fitzgerald, Jeff Davis) and lost both. Despite the strong schedule, Clinch’s opponents’ winning percentage will be only .483 because those opponents also chose to schedule teams that could beat them. Clinch is among three Top 10 teams in Region 1. The others — Mitchell County and Charlton County — also will struggle to get a top-eight seed, per Maxwell.

Private: Greater Atlanta Christian is ranked No. 4 but projected to get the No. 9 seed. GAC has lost to three Top 10 teams — Prince Avenue Christian, Douglass and Stephenson. GAC is heavily favored in its four remaining games but likely to finish third in Region 5-4A to public schools Douglass and Stephenson. GAC won a non-region game against Calhoun, a team projected to get the No. 9 seed in Class 4A.

Some of these teams would have fared no better under the GHSA’s former approach of seeding by region finish. Marist, Appling County, Cook, Clinch County and Greater Atlanta Christian are not predicted to win their regions and would’ve effectively been seeded no higher than 9-16 under the old seeding format. But, the PSR was designed to reward those kinds of teams, but won’t in their peculiar situations.

Below are the PSR standings as calculated by Maxwell. The list shows each team’s PSR current standings and its projected finish. The GHSA’s published PSR standings are different and less accurate than these because of school athletic directors’ tardiness in reporting scores to the GHSA.

Class 7A

Class 6A

Class 5A

Class 4A

Class 3A

Class 2A

Class A

Class 4A-2A Private