ORLANDO, Fla. – The way his chief spokesman describes it, the Newt Gingrich presidential campaign's financial operation runs like a lawn sprinkler. As soon as money comes down the pipe, it sprays out.
“We’re not like the Romney campaign where we can choose this pile of money or this pile of money,” R.C. Hammond said.
The hand-to-mouth style fits into the campaign’s underdog image, but presents a major liability for conducting what is now becoming a national campaign. The next few weeks will test whether it can survive under increasingly unfavorable circumstances.
Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Florida on Tuesday, Gingrich departed for Nevada with the slogan: “46 states to go.” Momentum has often swung wildly – and with it, donations – in the Republican race, but the next few weeks offer Gingrich few chances to halt Romney’s march to the nomination.
Gingrich has used the debates to reshape the race, but the next one is not until Feb. 22. The former U.S. House Speaker from Georgia fares best in the South, but the race does not return there until March 6, known as Super Tuesday, when Georgia and nine other states vote.
How can Gingrich survive? "Through sheer determination and willpower, the same way he’s survived up until this point," said GOP strategist Whit Ayres. "But he has a very high hill to climb.”
Ayres, who previously worked for former candidate Jon Huntsman’s Super PAC, added, “There are few opportunities on the horizon coming up, in the near term anyway, for him to have the dramatic moment that has shifted preferences. And the longer we go without that dramatic moment the greater the consolidation is going to be around Gov. Romney’s candidacy.”
The Gingrich campaign thinks it can compete in a drawn-out delegate fight. Bracing for the loss in Florida, the campaign passed along a memo to reporters Monday laying out a lengthy fight ahead to win the majority of convention delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination. With the win in Florida, Romney has captured 83 of the 1144 available delegates. Gingrich has 25.
There are 467 delegates at stake on Super Tuesday – including 76 in Georgia, the biggest prize of the day. The Baker memo cites Georgia, as well as Tennessee (58 delegates) and Oklahoma (43 delegates) as “favorable.”
Gingrich plans to remain in Nevada through Saturday’s caucuses, where even some of his most ardent supporters are predicting he will place second or third. There are just too many things going against Gingrich in the Silver State.
First, Romney overwhelmingly won Nevada in the 2008 caucuses. Texas congressman Ron Paul finished second. And both of them have kept campaign operations in Nevada since then, political observers said.
Gingrich has been setting up his Nevada campaign operation on the fly. His aides were still setting up campaign offices in Reno and Las Vegas this week. And just a handful of staffers have been on the ground there in recent days. Gingrich was expected to campaign this weekend in the Las Vegas area, where most of the state’s population resides.
“It is definitely an uphill battle for Nevada,” Dan Burdish, a key Nevada campaign aide for Gingrich and the former executive director of the state’s Republican Party, said in an interview last week. “There hasn’t been a whole lot done in this state for Newt.”
What Gingrich hopes to do is raise money, and a light public schedule suggests he’ll be spending a lot of time meeting with donors.
Las Vegas is home to Gingrich’s national finance co-chairman, George Harris, who said that his goal is for the Gingrich campaign to raise $250,000 to $500,000 during his swing through Nevada this week.
“We are not giving anything up,” Harris said. “And if anybody thinks we are, I hope they are ready for a fistfight in the alley because we are not dropping nothing.”
Billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, Gingrich’s biggest financial backer is based there as well. Adelson, the chairman and CEO of Nevada-based Las Vegas Sands Corp. -- which owns the Venetian and Palazzo casino resorts -- and his wife Miriam each contributed $5 million to a Gingrich-allied Super PAC in January. They support Gingrich’s pro-Israel stance.
It’s unknown whether the Adelsons intend to contribute more to Gingrich’s campaign or help get out the vote for him in Nevada. The couple declined to comment through a spokesman.
From Nevada, the race moves to caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota on Tuesday and Maine’s ongoing caucus will release its results Feb. 11. Missouri also votes in a primary Tuesday, but Gingrich is not on the ballot there and the result is non-binding. Missouri's delegates will be determined by a caucus in March.
Gingrich trails in organization throughout. In Maine his volunteer grassroots leader, Larry Grooms, started in December after his original favorite, Stockbridge businessman Herman Cain, left the race. He said Romney and Paul have had teams in place for years there.
“We’re hoping to have a decent turnout for Newt and that would be a win for us in this state, just so we’re not at zero,” Grooms said with a laugh.
Of the next few states, Minnesota appears to be the most favorable terrain for Gingrich, even though Romney won there in 2008 and has the support of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who mounted a presidential bid of his own last year.
Larry Jacobs, political science professor at the University of Minnesota, said the Minnesota GOP resembles tea party conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann – who dropped her presidential bid after the Iowa caucuses – more than Pawlenty. And in a caucus, which requires a big time commitment and typically draws the most fervent, Gingrich could have an edge.
“The fact that Gingrich has been able to tap into that sense of rebellion against the Republican Party establishment is a major strategic breakthrough for him,” Jacobs said. “And the fact that Romney has surrounded himself with the establishment is going to be a problem for him in Minnesota.”
Bachmann said Tuesday that she will not make an endorsement soon.
Gingrich often touts the fact that he leads in national Gallup polls, but that is likely to evaporate after Romney’s big victory in Florida and if he continues to win the next few states.
Hammond said the campaign brought in $5 million in January, boosted by Gingrich’s win in South Carolina, yet the pitch to donors gets tougher if his campaign appears to be falling permanently behind.
“The key issue for Newt is going to be money and moxie,” Jacobs said. “It’s one thing to kind of stand up and give a speech, but we’re talking about a long drawn out bitter battle. And is he really willing to put in that kind of energy, and will he have the cash to do it?”
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