Democratic Rep. Marshall trails by double digits in new poll, but other shows him ahead
WASHINGTON -- Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall of Macon is trailing Republican challenger Austin Scott by a double-digit margin in a poll released Wednesday, the latest indication of what some are predicting will be a Republican sweep in congressional races throughout the South -- and the country.
Scott, a state representative, leads four-term incumbent Marshall 50 percent to 37 percent in the independent poll by The Hill, a Washington political newspaper.
Incumbent Democrats also trail by double digits in congressional races in Florida, South Carolina and Texas, according to the poll. The Hill survey, conducted last week by telephone by the Penn Schoen Berland firm, included 400 likely voters in Georgia's 8th Congressional District and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Yet in a sign of just how uncertain and how competitive the race for Georgia's 8th Congressional District is with less than a week before the election, Marshall countered with his own poll Wednesday showing he has a 3-point advantage over Scott. The Mellman Group also surveyed 400 likely voters in the district by telephone last week. That poll also has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Marshall spokesman Doug Moore disputed The Hill poll, saying it overemphasized older voters and underemphasized African-American voters.
Even so, "this is going to be a close race," Moore acknowledged. "We've never characterized it otherwise."
Scott's campaign spokesman downplayed the poll results.
"Although The Hill numbers are encouraging, the only poll that matters is the vote on Election Day," said Scott spokesman Sam Ray.
The race for the congressional seat that represents much of central Georgia is the most hotly contested congressional contest in the state, and one of the most competitive in the country.
The Republican Party and right-leaning groups have pumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into backing Scott.
Marshall, meanwhile, has been distancing himself from his own party to try to appeal to swing voters, saying publicly that if re-elected, he won't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi as House speaker and running ads emphasizing his differences with his party.
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll paints a dire forecast for congressional Democrats all across the country.
The survey of voters in hotly contested congressional districts nationwide indicates that Republicans could easily pick up 50 congressional seats on Tuesday -- way more than the 39 seats they need to control the U.S. House.
The poll found the Republicans are in the lead in 31 of the 42 districts that are considered in play this year, in addition to districts that are widely expected to go Republican.
