Every now and then, a Hail Mary play pays off. In this case, it may have been Thad Cochran's decision to draw African-Americans and union members – traditional Democratic voters – into a GOP runoff.
The final vote: Cochran, 51 percent, to state senator Chris McDaniel, 49 percent. The Jackson Clarion-Ledger has an interactive county-by-county map here.
Two telling paragraphs from a New York Times account:
Their high numbers came despite pledges by conservative political action committees to monitor turnout in Democratic areas targeted by Cochran's campaign. Both the NAACP — which sent its own poll watchers — and the U.S. Justice Department expressed concerns about the possible intimidation of black Democrats, but no irregularities were reported to Mississippi election officials.
From the Associated Press:
Unsuccessful in earlier Republican primaries in Kentucky, Georgia and North Carolina, outside conservative organizations and tea party groups had invested millions in Mississippi in hopes of knocking out six-term Sen. Cochran. They fell short Tuesday night after a nasty, costly primary, and have few chances to reverse the trend in the remaining contests before November's elections.
The results left the movement's leaders fuming.
"Unfortunately in Mississippi, nefarious campaign tactics seem to have won the day over ideas and a bold conservative vision," said Taylor Budowich, executive director of Tea Party Express. "We thank Senator Chris McDaniel for courageously standing up to the political machine. In politics, the righteous are not always victorious, but Americans across the country appreciate the values that his campaign was built upon."
A defiant McDaniel offered no explicit concession, but instead complained of "dozens of irregularities" that he implied were due to Cochran courting Democrats and independents.
"We are not prone to surrender, we Mississippians," McDaniel told his backers. "Before this race is over we have to be absolutely certain the Republican primary was won by Republican voters."
In another setback for the tea party, two-term Rep. James Lankford of Oklahoma won the GOP nomination in the race to succeed Sen. Tom Coburn, who is stepping down with two years left in his term. In the solidly Republican state, Lankford is all but assured of becoming the next senator. Part of the House GOP leadership, Lankford defeated T.W. Shannon, a member of the Chickasaw Nation and the state's first black House speaker, who was backed by former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, two stalwarts of the right.
The Republican establishment blames the tea party movement and outside groups for costing it Senate seats — and majority control — in 2010 and 2012. Leaders in Washington were determined to avoid the same fate this election cycle, when they have a legitimate shot at netting the six seats to control the Senate. Cochran's win goes a long way to helping the GOP achieve its goal.
Earlier this month, McDaniel had beaten the veteran lawmaker in the initial primary round but had fallen short of the majority needed for nomination. In the three-week dash to the runoff, Cochran and his allies highlighted his seniority while McDaniel argued that Cochran was part of a blight of federal overspending.
In a last-ditch effort, Cochran reached out to traditionally Democratic voters — blacks and union members — who could cast ballots in the runoff. That possible factor in Cochran's victory is sure to be cited by critics in days and weeks to come.
At the Cochran party, Ronny Barrett, a 56-year-old mechanic from Jackson, said that until the June 3 primary, he had always voted for Democrats, but he decided to support Cochran after following news coverage and talking to friends.
"Sen. Cochran has done a lot of things for the black community, and a lot of people in the black community might not know that," said Barrett, who is black.
Cochran, a stalwart of the Senate Appropriations Committee, has funneled billions to his home state, one of the poorest in the nation, since he won a U.S. House seat in President Richard Nixon's GOP wave of 1972 and then was elected to the Senate in 1978....
[O]utside groups, from tea party organizations to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, spent some $12 million on the GOP Senate runoff. Former Green Bay Packers quarterback — and Gulfport, Mississippi, native — Brett Favre called the 76-year-old Cochran a "proven and respected leader" in one Chamber ad. In November, Cochran will face Democrat Travis Childers, a former congressman, in the heavily Republican state.
This has been a tough year for the "narrative" for GOP primary season across the nation. For a while, the establishment was winning and the tea party was on the outs. Then David Brat shocked Eric Cantor and the insurgents were back on the rise. The Cochran triumph is a win for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and a defeat for the Tea Party Patriots and Club for Growth.
The "establishment" also triumphed in Oklahoma: U.S. Rep. James Lankford easily won his primary against T.W. Shannon, who had the backing of the Senate Conservatives Fund and others.
But the real story is that each race is unique and the narrative doesn't easily apply. Cochran was able to turn out Democrats in a Republican runoff, while Lankford could count on loyalty from religious conservatives from his time running the largest Baptist summer camp in the state. And racial politics came into play for the half-Native American, half-black Shannon.
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