And the Oscar for Best Picture likely will go to …

If early award ceremonies are any indicator, the race for this year’s Academy Award winner for best picture truly is a crapshoot.

The Golden Globes split the category between drama and comedy, awarding the honor to both “Boyhood” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” respectively.

The Screen Actors Guild essentially tipped its hat to “Birdman,” honoring the film with the prestigious best performance by a cast in a motion picture award.

The British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) awarded “Boyhood” as best film, while the Producers Guild saw fit to recognize the production crew of “Birdman” with its acclaimed Darryl F. Zanuck Award for outstanding producer of theatrical motion pictures.

So which will take home the coveted statuette Sunday? Good question.

A quick Google search to determine the necessary criteria to define a best picture yielded probably what you’d expect; there is no real formula. So the answer is - no one knows. It’s basically a movie that had some effect on the majority of the almost 6,000 Academy members who have a vote.

Sounds simple enough, right?

Clearly the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences doesn’t care what I think (y’know, since my campaign to recognize Tom Hardy for best actor fell on deaf ears), but I’m hoping to at least shed some light on each of the nominees to help you better understand why they were singled out and perhaps pick out a winner - or just make the choice that much more difficult.

Yes, I saw all eight.

And the nominees (in the order in which I saw them) are:

Boyhood

This is the film that everyone has been talking about. Why? Because it was filmed over the course of 12 years. Who does that? Director Richard Linklater, that’s who. Genius idea.

The film tells the story of Mason (Ellar Coltrane) and the ups, downs, celebrations and derailments he encounters during, well - boyhood. It could almost be a documentary if the storyline wasn’t fictional. “Boyhood” costars Ethan Hawke as Mason Sr. and Patricia Arquette (who likely will win for best supporting actress) as Mason’s mom (character’s name: “Mom”). Everything we see isn’t always pretty, but it’s very real.

And that’s what the film has going for it; it’s extremely relatable. It truly is difficult to watch this kid’s life play out and not think about his situations as your own - because we’ve all been there. He literally grows up on screen, and I’m pretty sure that’s never been done before.

Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The concept behind the making of “Birdman” is about as ambitious as “Boyhood,” just in a different way. The story is that of a has-been actor (best actor hopeful Michael Keaton) trying to reclaim the relevance he once had as the star in a series of “Birdman” films. But this time, he’s directing and starring in a stage play, and the look of the film is consistent with that of a live performance.

“Birdman” is filmed as one long take; it’s two straight hours of one seamless string of events: no fades, no dissolves, no cuts of any kind - none that we can see anyway. The camera is our eye, and we seemingly never blink. It’s probably the most visually brilliant piece of filmmaking I’ve seen - maybe ever.

If “Birdman” doesn’t take home the top prize, look for it to put up a good fight for best cinematography.

Whiplash

Music usually will get one tapping his or her toes, but here we’re fidgety for a completely different reason: Terence Fletcher is one seriously fearsome dude.

When Fletcher (J.K. Simmons in the role that almost surely will win him the best supporting actor award) “hurls a chair” at a promising young drummer (Miles Teller), it’s an eye-opening indicator that “Whiplash” is far more intimidating than any film centered around music should be.

The intensity of practice - music practice - is clearly demonstrated and understood. The frantic pace and editing throughout will send your pulse racing. For real.

And that’s what makes “Whiplash” such a powerhouse contender.

The Imitation Game

Shhhhh!

Everything about the subject matter of “The Imitation Game” is so secretive I almost felt like I was hearing the dialogue in a whisper. This is the one about the super secret mission to secretly decode the not-so-secret German Enigma machine during World War II - in secret.

And behind it all is smarty pants mathematician Alan Turing (Benedict Cumberbatch, obviously a candidate for best actor). Cumberbatch beautifully balances arrogance with vulnerability as he and a handful of others race to crack this famously unbreakable code. The outcome is obvious, but the storytelling is striking.

But when the tables are turned on Turing, this puzzling Brit finds himself defending a more personal issue. As a result, “The Imitation Game” registers heartbreak along with its triumph.

American Sniper

The movie that continues to shoot down box office records is the tale of Navy SEALs sharpshooter Chris Kyle (best actor nominee Bradley Cooper). “Sniper” tells his story back and forth between four tours in Iraq and being a husband and father at home. But that’s the thing; what is home?

The film shows us the real impact of war on the military personnel who experience it, and it’s not something that goes away when a soldier returns from battle. It’s not so much about what Chris Kyle did in battle as it is about what battle did to him; it changed him, and “Sniper” gives those of us who’ve never been through it a really honest look at the effects of war.

And with Hollywood heavyweight Clint Eastwood captaining directorial duties here, the film’s resonance knows no bounds.

Selma

Let me just write what everyone who has seen this is thinking: David Oyelowo should have beennominated for best actor. Period.

That he wasn’t is a travesty. The intensity in his voice and the emphatic nature of his movements as Martin Luther King Jr. are carbon copies of those of the man himself. I don’t get it.

It is kind of funny that the major players in a film about one of the most influential figures during one of the most consequential movements in U.S. history - all were played by British actors. But whatever.

Nevertheless, “Selma” brings to the screen King’s rally to ensure equal rights for black voters in the South in 1965; it chronicles not only the march from Selma to Montgomery, Alabama, but also the injustice that sparked it, the violence that stemmed from it, and the unwavering force that mobilized it.

Its historical significance is indisputable, so there’s no doubt that this is one of those films that people still will think about long after the credits roll.

The Theory of Everything

Subtle hints of impending debilitation are clear from the start of “The Theory of Everything” - from Stephen Hawking (Eddie Redmayne, the most likely candidate to take home the best actor award) spilling coffee or dropping his pencil to him being uncontrollably twitchy at a local hangout.

And as this “motor neuron disease” progresses Redmayne’s physical transformation reflecting its effects on his body is both incredible and tragic. Despite his inability to walk - and eventually talk - Hawking’s mind never skips a beat, and we see his nonstop genius at work, no matter the circumstance or obstacle.

The one constant? That smile.

This is probably the most inspirational film of the bunch, especially when you see everything Hawking has accomplished and everything he’s had to overcome.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The films of Wes Anderson are nothing if not unmistakably unique. He uses a lot of the same elements across the board: recurring themes of robberies, heists and mysteries; the way the camera unconventionally frames and tracks shots; the repetitive cameos of specific actors; the use of miniatures to give his films a very cartoony feel.

The same holds true here.

“Budapest” is mostly a flashback telling of how a “curious old man” came to own this hotel; it’s the adventures of M. Gustave (Ralph Fiennes) and his lobby boy Zero (Tony Revolori), and a coveted painting at the center of controversy. The storyline itself seems sort of non-threatening and campy, but it has a remarkably wondrous, alternate-dimension quality to it.

It’s a visual treat, with vibrant colors and techniques not usually seen in films today. I only hope enough people can understand and appreciate Anderson’s progressive style.

Picking a winner

Does that help?

Each of these films no doubt precipitates a moving response on some level, so will it be one of the historical, the emotional, the visual or the ambitious films taking home the Oscar?

Umm, yes.

Based on what I’ve seen and what I know, I think Richard Linklater and his “Boyhood” crew probably will take the gold. Judging by the subject matter and the years of work that went into the making, I think this simple story told in such an innovative way will be the standout.

However, I would love to see the honor go to “Birdman.” There really was no cooler movie in 2014, and don’t be at all surprised if it swoops in to snag best director honors for Alejandro Inarritu even if “Boyhood” wins best picture. Stranger things have happened, and I have a strong feeling it’ll come down to an epic battle between the boy and the bird.

But that’s just my opinion, and remember - I don’t get a vote.