A quieter hurricane season may be coming. That’s not all good news for Georgia.
A group of esteemed scientists predict the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less active than normal, due in large part to the El Niño climate pattern that’s expected to develop soon in the Pacific Ocean.
A slower hurricane season would mean it’s less likely a major storm like Hurricane Helene will slam Georgia this year. But experts say fewer storms also means lower odds the tropics will deliver the moisture needed to break the Peach State’s deepening drought, the worst one in a decade.
Researchers from Colorado State University predicted Thursday that the Atlantic Basin will produce 13 named tropical storms in 2026, a hair below the historical average of 14.4. Of those 13, the scientists anticipate six will become hurricanes and two will reach major hurricane status with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or higher.
The scientists say the forecast’s main driver is the expectation that a moderate to strong El Niño will be in place between August and October, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the presence of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The pattern influences weather patterns across the globe, but is known for sending strong westerly winds through the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. That wind shear tends to tear tropical storms apart, making it more difficult for major hurricanes to form.
Cooler than normal ocean temperatures associated with El Niño’s opposite phase, La Niña, recently dissipated in the tropical Pacific and were replaced by so-called “neutral” conditions. But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects that, too, will change soon.
On Thursday, the agency said there is a 61% chance El Niño will develop between May and July. If it does, it’s expected to last at least through the end of 2026 — with some forecasters predicting an unusually intense “super” El Niño could form.
CSU’s experts say there’s a 32% chance a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline. That’s slightly below the historical average of 43%.
For Georgia, there’s a 22% chance a hurricane will pass within 50 miles of its borders, and just a 4% chance a major hurricane (Category 3 or above) will track near it.
Like all forecasts, CSU’s predictions are not ironclad, a fact the scientists acknowledge in their report, especially as it relates to the formation of El Niño.
“The big question mark with this season’s predictions is how strong a likely El Niño will be,” the researchers said.
Despite the forecast for a slower hurricane season, the scientists urged residents in coastal areas and beyond to take care of their storm preparations now.
Human-caused climate change has increased storms’ destructive potential, producing wetter storms and hurricanes that are more likely to rapidly intensify as they approach land.
Higher seas produced by melting ice sheets and glaciers across the globe also means that storm surge is able to reach farther inland in coastal areas. On the Georgia coast, sea levels have already risen about a foot in the last 100 years.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” CSU professor Michael Bell said in a statement.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but tropical storms can occur outside those dates.
Drought relief less likely
Parts of Georgia are still rebuilding from 2024’s Hurricane Helene, the most destructive storm in state history. For many, the possibility of a quieter hurricane season is likely welcome news.
But a lack of tropical activity could cause heartburn for farmers and water managers across the state, who are already entering the growing season with dry soil and shrinking reservoirs.
A drought that began late last summer in Georgia has worsened significantly in recent months.
At the start of 2026, just over 1% of Georgia was considered extremely or exceptionally dry. As of this week, those conditions are now present across more than two-thirds of the state, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows.
The dry spell is now the worst the state has seen since at least 2017, federal drought data shows. The driest conditions are in deep south and southwest Georgia.
Tropical storms can deliver several inches of rain in a matter of hours or days, enough to put a significant dent in water deficits. But even in a good year, Georgia rarely sees those kinds of drought-busting storms materialize before July, said Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia.
With the tropics looking less likely to send significant moisture Georgia’s way this hurricane season, Knox said the drought is “likely to get worse before it gets better.”
A note of disclosure
This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at AJC.com/donate/climate.
About the Author
Drew Kann is a reporter at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution covering climate change and environmental issues. His passion is for stories that capture how humans are responding to a changing environment. He is a proud graduate of the University of Georgia and Northwestern University, and prior to joining the AJC, he held various roles at CNN.
