I was having a busy, but fairly calm Thursday until I decided to see what trouble Matt Drudge was getting into, when the giant headline burst onto the screen of my laptop.
"GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS," was the headline.
I chuckled at that, imagining how it was being received by Democrats and Republicans alike. But then I started to scratch my head, thinking that I had seen this before.
And I'm pretty sure I have with Gallup and their "Likely Voter Model."
A quick check from 2000 showed that Gallup was all over the place with their polls in the Bush-Gore race that year.
Is this more of the same?
Somehow I do expect we are going to see some crazy numbers. Heck, there was a Hotline tracking poll last week that got no coverage, which showed a one point lead for Obama.
As I was digesting all of that while battling to get the kids to bed, my blackberry buzzed with a message from Joe Biden, who was busy sending out fundraising emails. They just happened to reference exactly what I had been talking about.
"Anyone who tells you this election is already decided is dead wrong. Let's not forget the 2000 election, when Al Gore was up by double digits in October," the email began.
"The surest way to lose a race is to slow down with the finish line in sight."
"We're taking no chances," the email continued.
On one hand, I should warn you not to follow the polls, but who am I kidding? I like reading them too.
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