GHSA football projections: Newton, Lee County, Roswell all 4-point favorites

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

A look at the top 10 Georgia high school football games for Week 3

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

		Favorite		Projection			Underdog
Date	Game Rating	Class	Team	Pct	Median Scores	Median Margin	Team	Class
Fri, Oct 02	92.59	7A	Newton	65.6%	28 - 24	4	Westlake	7A
Fri, Oct 02	92.12	6A	Lee County	60.4%	21 - 17	4	Coffee	6A
Fri, Oct 02	81.83	6A	Roswell	61.2%	21 - 17	4	Gainesville	6A
Fri, Oct 02	74.58	7A	Brookwood	85.9%	32 - 16	16	Parkview	7A
Fri, Oct 02	71.50	5A	Cartersville	85.3%	30 - 14	16	Cass	5A
Fri, Oct 02	69.14	7A	Marietta	66.1%	26 - 20	6	Walton	7A
Fri, Oct 02	68.27	6A	Houston County	80.6%	21 - 7	14	Tift County	6A
Fri, Oct 02	67.31	7A	McEachern	69.8%	17 - 7	10	Hillgrove	7A
Fri, Oct 02	62.54	6A	Hughes	73.5%	21 - 13	8	Newnan	6A
Fri, Oct 02	60.89	Private	Holy Innocents	67.9%	21 - 14	7	Lovett	Private
Fri, Oct 02	60.88	5A	Ware County	71.7%	20 - 9	11	Richmond Academy	5A
Fri, Oct 02	59.68	4A	Peach County	94.9%	35 - 8	27	Mary Persons	4A
Fri, Oct 02	59.65	5A	Mays	71.4%	12 - 0	12	Lithonia	5A
Sat, Oct 03	59.50	4A	Douglass	62.5%	16 - 12	4	Greater Atlanta Christian	Private
Fri, Oct 02	58.40	6A	Milton	95.5%	28 - 0	28	Lanier	6A
Fri, Oct 02	58.00	5A	Jefferson	68.0%	14 - 6	8	Flowery Branch	5A
Fri, Oct 02	57.78	6A	Kell	80.8%	24 - 10	14	Rome	6A
Fri, Oct 02	56.29	6A	Brunswick	60.6%	30 - 27	3	Bradwell Institute	6A
Fri, Oct 02	54.77	5A	Griffin	60.4%	21 - 17	4	Whitewater	5A
Thu, Oct 01	53.21	4A	Spalding	62.3%	20 - 14	6	Howard	4A
Fri, Oct 02	53.02	2A	Bleckley County	83.3%	27 - 13	14	Swainsboro	2A
Fri, Oct 02	51.84	6A	Thomas County Central	99.9%	45 - 0	45	Veterans	6A
Fri, Oct 02	51.59	5A	Dalton	80.5%	24 - 12	12	Allatoona	5A
Fri, Oct 02	51.27	3A	Thomson	52.6%	19 - 17	2	Burke County	3A
Fri, Oct 02	49.86	3A	Hart County	93.8%	28 - 0	28	Stephens County	3A
Fri, Oct 02	49.80	4A	Adairsville	55.9%	18 - 14	4	Northwest Whitfield	4A
Fri, Oct 02	49.63	6A	Effingham County	83.6%	28 - 14	14	Glynn Academy	6A
Fri, Oct 02	49.44	5A	Cambridge	68.7%	21 - 14	7	Sprayberry	5A
Fri, Oct 02	48.68	2A	Cook	76.0%	22 - 13	9	Berrien	2A
Fri, Oct 02	48.55	3A	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	94.2%	29 - 0	29	North Cobb Christian	Private
Fri, Oct 02	47.55	4A	Oconee County	83.1%	21 - 0	21	Cherokee Bluff	4A
Fri, Oct 02	47.42	Private	Fellowship Christian	57.1%	14 - 13	1	Mount Vernon	Private
Fri, Oct 02	47.29	5A	Dutchtown	65.7%	14 - 6	8	Jonesboro	5A
Fri, Oct 02	47.15	4A	Cairo	96.4%	28 - 0	28	Spencer	4A
Fri, Oct 02	46.98	4A	Sandy Creek	99.0%	32 - 0	32	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4A
Fri, Oct 02	46.77	7A	Harrison	98.3%	34 - 0	34	North Atlanta	7A
Fri, Oct 02	46.08	5A	Blessed Trinity	99.2%	38 - 0	38	Centennial	5A
Fri, Oct 02	45.38	6A	Clarke Central	94.1%	21 - 0	21	Walnut Grove	6A
Fri, Oct 02	45.36	5A	Villa Rica	81.5%	21 - 7	14	Woodland (Cartersville)	5A
Fri, Oct 02	45.26	3A	Morgan County	62.3%	14 - 7	7	Elbert County	3A
Fri, Oct 02	45.14	5A	Warner Robins	85.0%	28 - 14	14	Locust Grove	5A
Fri, Oct 02	45.12	2A	Thomasville	92.0%	32 - 9	23	Brooks County	2A
Fri, Oct 02	45.06	7A	Pebblebrook	52.3%	15 - 14	1	Campbell	7A
Fri, Oct 02	44.67	6A	Jackson County	98.5%	36 - 0	36	Loganville	6A
Fri, Oct 02	44.54	6A	Creekside	99.0%	38 - 0	38	McIntosh	6A
Fri, Oct 02	44.39	7A	North Cobb	99.1%	35 - 0	35	Cherokee	7A
Fri, Oct 02	44.10	Private	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	60.3%	23 - 20	3	Eagle's Landing Christian	Private
Fri, Oct 02	44.00	7A	South Gwinnett	93.9%	28 - 0	28	Northgate	7A
Fri, Oct 02	43.92	4A	Gilmer	60.0%	17 - 14	3	White County	4A
Fri, Oct 02	43.70	4A	West Laurens	76.1%	14 - 0	14	New Hampstead	4A
Fri, Oct 02	43.33	6A	Creekview	89.9%	26 - 0	26	Woodstock	6A
Fri, Oct 02	42.63	1A	Taylor County	66.8%	20 - 14	6	Macon County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	41.98	5A	Benedictine	98.2%	38 - 0	38	Evans	5A
Fri, Oct 02	41.61	Private	Wesleyan	83.9%	21 - 0	21	Haralson County	3A
Thu, Oct 01	41.38	3A	Hapeville Charter	87.7%	22 - 0	22	Miller Grove	3A
Fri, Oct 02	41.18	2A	Laney	73.8%	20 - 7	13	Aquinas	Private
Fri, Oct 02	41.05	Private	Hebron Christian	85.3%	24 - 7	17	Franklin County	3A
Fri, Oct 02	41.02	3A	Ringgold	67.4%	21 - 14	7	LaFayette	3A
Fri, Oct 02	39.98	2A	Dodge County	77.9%	21 - 7	14	Vidalia	2A
Fri, Oct 02	39.89	1A	Lincoln County	77.7%	23 - 13	10	Emanuel County Institute	1A
Fri, Oct 02	39.81	6A	Sequoyah	99.6%	39 - 0	39	Pope	6A
Fri, Oct 02	39.70	6A	Mountain View	92.4%	27 - 0	27	Cedar Shoals	6A
Fri, Oct 02	39.68	4A	Harlem	52.7%	14 - 13	1	Southeast Bulloch	4A
Fri, Oct 02	39.50	7A	North Gwinnett	99.7%	42 - 0	42	Duluth	7A
Fri, Oct 02	39.03	7A	Mill Creek	83.8%	23 - 7	16	Central Gwinnett	7A
Fri, Oct 02	38.95	5A	Central (Carrollton)	98.7%	38 - 0	38	Starr's Mill	5A
Fri, Oct 02	38.89	GIAA 4A	St. Anne-Pacelli	68.1%	20 - 13	7	Strong Rock Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Oct 02	38.18	3A	Jackson	59.1%	21 - 17	4	Callaway	3A
Fri, Oct 02	37.17	5A	North Oconee	99.2%	35 - 0	35	Winder-Barrow	5A
Fri, Oct 02	37.17	5A	St. Pius X	68.3%	21 - 14	7	Chattahoochee	5A
Fri, Oct 02	37.02	2A	Heard County	99.1%	37 - 0	37	Darlington	Private
Fri, Oct 02	36.92	6A	Greenbrier	59.5%	13 - 7	6	Grovetown	6A
Fri, Oct 02	36.69	4A	North Clayton	77.1%	20 - 7	13	McDonough	4A
Fri, Oct 02	36.52	7A	Etowah	97.2%	37 - 3	34	Wheeler	7A
Fri, Oct 02	36.52	GIAA 3A	John Milledge Academy	93.7%	22 - 0	22	First Presbyterian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Oct 02	36.49	4A	Dougherty	83.8%	21 - 6	15	Shaw	4A
Fri, Oct 02	36.18	6A	Lovejoy	61.1%	20 - 14	6	Tri-Cities	6A
Fri, Oct 02	35.89	5A	East Forsyth	88.9%	28 - 7	21	Madison County	5A
Fri, Oct 02	35.49	3A	Sumter County	67.3%	17 - 7	10	Monroe	4A
Fri, Oct 02	35.08	2A	Bremen	96.1%	35 - 3	32	Pepperell	2A
Fri, Oct 02	34.73	4A	Troup	99.2%	38 - 0	38	Westside (Macon)	4A
Fri, Oct 02	34.55	2A	Commerce	91.5%	28 - 6	22	Temple	3A
Fri, Oct 02	34.54	5A	Jenkins	95.0%	28 - 0	28	Wayne County	5A
Fri, Oct 02	34.04	5A	Banneker	58.2%	14 - 10	4	Maynard Jackson	5A
Fri, Oct 02	34.01	GIAA 2A	Brentwood School	54.8%	21 - 20	1	Edmund Burke Academy	GIAA 2A
Fri, Oct 02	33.47	1A	Clinch County	81.5%	19 - 0	19	Irwin County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	32.94	6A	Chapel Hill	65.2%	17 - 10	7	South Cobb	6A
Fri, Oct 02	32.19	5A	Southwest DeKalb	95.7%	23 - 0	23	Druid Hills	5A
Fri, Oct 02	32.11	6A	Lassiter	97.4%	35 - 0	35	River Ridge	6A
Fri, Oct 02	31.93	4A	Liberty County	58.9%	17 - 14	3	Windsor Forest	4A
Fri, Oct 02	31.63	2A	ACE Charter	93.4%	27 - 0	27	East Laurens	2A
Fri, Oct 02	31.32	6A	Habersham Central	95.5%	28 - 0	28	Apalachee	6A
Fri, Oct 02	30.88	Private	Christian Heritage	75.8%	21 - 12	9	Gordon Lee	2A
Fri, Oct 02	29.99	2A	Fannin County	66.1%	20 - 14	6	Dade County	2A
Fri, Oct 02	29.53	1A	Washington-Wilkes	51.1%	20 - 19	1	Providence Christian	Private
Fri, Oct 02	29.28	5A	Jones County	99.3%	38 - 0	38	Union Grove	5A
Fri, Oct 02	29.21	1A	Montgomery County	55.2%	11 - 7	4	Warren County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	28.21	Private	Pace Academy	52.2%	20 - 19	1	North Springs	4A
Fri, Oct 02	27.83	3A	Carver (Atlanta)	81.6%	20 - 0	20	Cedar Grove	3A
Fri, Oct 02	27.25	2A	Fitzgerald	97.9%	30 - 0	30	Bacon County	2A
Fri, Oct 02	26.55	GIAA 3A	Westfield School	87.8%	21 - 0	21	Tiftarea Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Oct 02	26.54	4A	North Hall	95.7%	36 - 7	29	Dawson County	4A
Fri, Oct 02	26.31	6A	Northside (Columbus)	93.7%	24 - 0	24	Morrow	6A
Fri, Oct 02	26.19	GIAA 4A	Brookstone	84.2%	23 - 7	16	Calvary Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Oct 02	25.33	5A	Stockbridge	99.3%	41 - 0	41	Drew	5A
Fri, Oct 02	25.15	Private	Calvary Day	99.5%	37 - 0	37	Metter	2A
Fri, Oct 02	25.14	1A	Randolph-Clay	86.1%	28 - 12	16	Miller County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	25.13	7A	Collins Hill	98.1%	34 - 0	34	Seckinger	7A
Fri, Oct 02	24.67	7A	Dacula	98.1%	34 - 0	34	Discovery	7A
Fri, Oct 02	24.63	2A	Model	96.2%	28 - 0	28	Mount Zion (Carrollton)	2A
Fri, Oct 02	24.37	6A	Decatur	50.3%	14 - 14	0	Alcovy	6A
Fri, Oct 02	24.14	6A	Dunwoody	92.6%	26 - 0	26	Lakeside (Atlanta)	6A
Fri, Oct 02	23.82	6A	South Effingham	93.0%	27 - 0	27	Lakeside (Evans)	6A
Fri, Oct 02	23.81	GIAA 4A	Stratford Academy	97.2%	29 - 0	29	Frederica Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Oct 02	23.68	Private	Whitefield Academy	92.1%	32 - 9	23	Landmark Christian	Private
Fri, Oct 02	23.23	5A	Ola	99.7%	37 - 0	37	Eagle's Landing	5A
Fri, Oct 02	23.04	3A	Pierce County	99.4%	38 - 0	38	Beach	3A
Fri, Oct 02	23.00	4A	Heritage (Ringgold)	89.1%	27 - 6	21	Ridgeland	4A
Thu, Oct 01	22.97	3A	Columbia	99.5%	35 - 0	35	South Atlanta	3A
Fri, Oct 02	22.85	4A	Baldwin	99.2%	36 - 0	36	Upson-Lee	4A
Fri, Oct 02	22.65	3A	Murray County	62.7%	14 - 7	7	Coahulla Creek	3A
Thu, Oct 01	22.58	3A	Northeast	98.9%	33 - 0	33	Rutland	3A
Fri, Oct 02	22.53	1A	Wheeler County	82.3%	21 - 7	14	Hawkinsville	1A
Fri, Oct 02	22.29	1A	Treutlen	75.6%	24 - 14	10	Turner County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	22.12	3A	Sonoraville	64.4%	14 - 7	7	Union County	3A
Fri, Oct 02	21.82	4A	Monroe Area	99.7%	45 - 0	45	East Hall	4A
Fri, Oct 02	20.66	4A	Hampton	97.6%	30 - 0	30	Riverdale	4A
Fri, Oct 02	20.14	3A	Pike County	90.4%	28 - 6	22	Central (Macon)	3A
Fri, Oct 02	19.09	1A	Johnson County	97.0%	31 - 0	31	Wilkinson County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	19.03	1A	Greene County	64.0%	16 - 10	6	Lake Oconee Academy	1A
Fri, Oct 02	18.20	Private	King's Ridge Christian	87.7%	26 - 6	20	Mount Paran Christian	Private
Fri, Oct 02	17.91	GIAA 2A	Southwest Georgia Academy	86.9%	29 - 14	15	Sherwood Christian	GIAA 2A
Fri, Oct 02	17.77	4A	Luella	72.8%	15 - 6	9	Fayette County	4A
Fri, Oct 02	17.16	4A	Bainbridge	95.1%	28 - 0	28	Columbus	4A
Fri, Oct 02	16.90	3A	Lamar County	96.1%	27 - 0	27	Southwest	3A
Fri, Oct 02	16.84	3A	Toombs County	100.0%	42 - 0	42	Brantley County	3A
Fri, Oct 02	16.11	2A	Washington	67.0%	18 - 10	8	Utopian Academy	2A
Fri, Oct 02	14.55	5A	Arabia Mountain	62.4%	12 - 3	9	Mundy's Mill	5A
Fri, Oct 02	13.05	3A	Tattnall County	60.0%	18 - 14	4	Islands	3A
Fri, Oct 02	13.02	2A	Social Circle	93.7%	28 - 0	28	Glenn Hills	2A
Fri, Oct 02	12.39	6A	Alexander	98.7%	34 - 0	34	Osborne	6A
Fri, Oct 02	11.96	2A	Putnam County	97.0%	34 - 0	34	Jefferson County	2A
Fri, Oct 02	11.89	GIAA 2A	Gatewood School	62.2%	19 - 14	5	Flint River Academy	GIAA 1A
Fri, Oct 02	11.87	GIAA 3A	Athens Christian	85.8%	22 - 3	19	Lakeview Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Oct 02	10.84	4A	East Jackson	96.1%	28 - 0	28	West Hall	4A
Fri, Oct 02	10.69	6A	Alpharetta	96.9%	33 - 0	33	Riverwood	6A
Fri, Oct 02	9.20	2A	Screven County	98.2%	26 - 0	26	Bryan County	2A
Fri, Oct 02	8.73	1A	Dooly County	74.1%	21 - 12	9	Wilcox County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	8.72	GIAA 2A	Valwood School	98.9%	42 - 0	42	Brookwood School	GIAA 2A
Fri, Oct 02	8.09	2A	Banks County	81.8%	20 - 0	20	Oglethorpe County	2A
Fri, Oct 02	7.76	4A	Stephenson	99.9%	44 - 0	44	Salem	4A
Fri, Oct 02	7.54	6A	Heritage (Conyers)	99.7%	42 - 0	42	Midtown	6A
Fri, Oct 02	7.36	3A	Appling County	99.7%	37 - 0	37	Johnson (Savannah)	3A
Fri, Oct 02	6.91	1A	Charlton County	99.0%	34 - 0	34	Lanier County	1A
Thu, Oct 01	5.26	3A	McNair	89.0%	28 - 7	21	Redan	3A
Fri, Oct 02	4.41	GIAA 1A	Thomas Jefferson	63.3%	19 - 14	5	Pinewood Christian	GIAA 2A
Thu, Oct 01	4.05	6A	Chamblee	95.0%	30 - 0	30	Meadowcreek	6A
Fri, Oct 02	2.45	1A	Jenkins County	91.9%	24 - 0	24	Hancock Central	1A
Thu, Oct 01	1.91	5A	Northview	74.5%	20 - 7	13	Towers	3A
Fri, Oct 02	0.87	1A	Mitchell County	98.0%	38 - 0	38	Atkinson County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	0.03	GIAA 1A	Windsor Academy	96.4%	27 - 0	27	Trinity Christian (Dublin)	GIAA 2A
Fri, Oct 02	0.01	3A	Hephzibah	99.8%	41 - 0	41	Butler	3A
Fri, Oct 02	-0.54	1A	Early County	98.0%	26 - 0	26	Terrell County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	-1.71	4A	Pickens	99.1%	39 - 0	39	Chestatee	4A
Fri, Oct 02	-2.26	1A	Seminole County	95.4%	14 - 0	14	Pelham	1A
Fri, Oct 02	-2.89	1A	Glascock County	88.8%	28 - 7	21	Twiggs County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	-3.01	5A	M.L. King	99.7%	41 - 0	41	Forest Park	5A
Fri, Oct 02	-4.03	4A	Calhoun	99.9%	47 - 0	47	Southeast Whitfield	4A
Fri, Oct 02	-4.98	7A	Norcross	99.9%	40 - 0	40	Berkmar	7A
Fri, Oct 02	-5.11	Private	Savannah Christian	99.2%	33 - 0	33	Savannah	2A
Fri, Oct 02	-5.65	5A	Statesboro	99.9%	45 - 0	45	Groves	5A
Fri, Oct 02	-7.65	GIAA 4A	Bethlehem Christian	97.7%	35 - 0	35	Loganville Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Oct 02	-8.36	1A	Calhoun County	76.0%	32 - 21	11	Jordan	3A
Fri, Oct 02	-9.38	GIAA 2A	Briarwood Academy	99.2%	36 - 0	36	Robert Toombs Academy	GIAA 1A
Fri, Oct 02	-9.80	Private	Mt. Bethel Christian	96.9%	31 - 0	31	Walker	Private
Fri, Oct 02	-12.63	GIAA 4A	George Walton Academy	99.3%	35 - 0	35	Riverside Prep	GIAA 3A
Fri, Oct 02	-13.47	GAPPS	Rock Springs Christian	80.9%	26 - 13	13	Creekside Christian	GAPPS
Fri, Oct 02	-15.02	2A	Chattooga	95.5%	28 - 0	28	Gordon Central	2A
Fri, Oct 02	-16.72	1A	Schley County	99.4%	42 - 0	42	Crawford County	1A
Fri, Oct 02	-17.43	1A	Towns County	90.4%	26 - 0	26	Johnson (Gainesville)	5A
Fri, Oct 02	-17.65	2A	Jasper County	100.0%	48 - 0	48	Josey	2A
Thu, Oct 01	-18.49	1A	B.E.S.T. Academy	97.4%	28 - 0	28	Stone Mountain	4A
Fri, Oct 02	-19.26	3A	Washington County	100.0%	42 - 0	42	Cross Creek	3A
Fri, Oct 02	-21.46	2A	Coosa	99.0%	31 - 0	31	Armuchee	2A
Fri, Oct 02	-26.03	GIAA 2A	Piedmont Academy	99.0%	32 - 0	32	St. Andrew's School	GIAA 3A
Fri, Oct 02	-26.22	1A	Marion County	96.9%	28 - 0	28	Central (Talbotton)	1A
Fri, Oct 02	-27.37	GIAA 3A	Terrell Academy	99.4%	44 - 0	44	Central Fellowship Christian	GIAA 3A
Fri, Oct 02	-28.05	GAPPS	Cherokee Christian	95.5%	26 - 0	26	Clarkston	4A
Fri, Oct 02	-30.56	1A	Pataula Charter	97.3%	27 - 0	27	Scintilla Charter Academy	1A
Fri, Oct 02	-47.80	1A	Southwest Georgia STEM	75.4%	21 - 12	9	Cross Keys	5A
Fri, Oct 02	-61.99	GAPPS	Skipstone Academy	99.2%	40 - 0	40	Dominion Christian	GIAA 3A

Alerts

Maxwell projections: Newton faces biggest test of the season