PSR update: Only 2 of 8 composite No. 1 teams projected to get No. 1 seed

Only two of the eight teams ranked No. 1 in the AJC Varsity Composite Rankings will finish as a No. 1 seed, according to the Maxwell Ratings’ latest Post Season Ranking projections.

Maxwell predicts Toombs County in Class 3A and Prince Avenue Christian in Class 4A-2A Private will get No. 1 seeds. The other six composite No. 1 teams will not, Maxwell projects.

After five weeks of the regular season, Toombs and Prince Avenue stand No. 1 in the GHSA’s PSR standings, updated Tuesday, and No. 1 in the AJC Varsity Composite, which comprises seven human and computer polls. Both are predicted to keep their No. 1 seed, which is not the case for the other six PSR No. 1 teams.

In Class 7A, Newton stands No. 1 in PSR, but Maxwell views Valdosta, the No. 6 team in the composite, as the favorite to land the No. 1 seed.

Buford, the composite No. 1 team, is No. 2 in the PSR standings but projected to finish No. 9 despite being favored to go 10-0.

PSR is a weighted formula adding winning percentage plus opponents’ winning percentage plus opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.

Buford’s opponents’ winning percentage, projected to be .428, will derail the Wolves, according to Maxwell, and put them on track to play road playoff games in the quarterfinals and beyond. Buford has only a 14.1% chance of getting a top-8 seed and a 98% chance of being seeded between 7 and 14, according to Maxwell.

The PSR has Jackson County No. 1 in 6A, but Maxwell projects the Panthers to finish No. 2 behind Lee County. Thomas County Central is the composite No. 1 team.

The composite No. 1 Class 5A team, Blessed Trinity, is No. 1 in the PSR this week but projected to finish No. 2 behind North Oconee, the composite No. 5 team, despite North Oconee already having a loss.

Class 5A is the only class with a composite No. 1 team that differs from the AJC Varsity’s own rankings, which have Cartersville No. 1. Cartersville is No. 12 in the PSR and predicted to finish No. 4.

In Class 4A, Sandy Creek is the unanimous No. 1 composite team but projected to be seeded No. 5. Maxwell predicts Troup will finish No. 1.

The GHSA lists Baldwin as the No. 1 team in PSR in 4A. However, Baldwin’s loss to Howard had not been entered in the GHSA scores late Tuesday. The GHSA said its PSR standings are dependent on score reporting from the home team’s athletic director for each game.

Heard County is No. 1 in the composite rankings for 2A but No. 8 in the PSR and predicted to finish No. 3. Fitzgerald is the PSR No. 1 and is projected to keep the No. 1 seed.

In Class A, Taylor County is No. 1 in the PSR and predicted to finish there. Johnson County, the AJC and consensus No. 1, is expected to remain No. 2.

Along with Buford, the most prominent team that is projected to be seeded No. 9 or lower (meaning a potential road playoff game as early as the quarterfinals) is Calvary Day.

Calvary, a Private school, stands ninth in the PSR and is projected to finish 12th despite being favored in every remaining game. Calvary is the composite and the AJC’s No. 2 team in 4A-2A Private.

The PSR will be used to select and seed the 32 teams in all eight state-playoff classifications this season for the first time. Region finish no longer counts except to guarantee a top 16 seed to region champions.

Below are the GHSA’s PSR standings. They show each team’s PSR standing, projected PSR finish and Maxwell Rating of actual strength. These standings do not include private school teams in classes 4A, 3A and 2A and do not acknowledge ties, making them slightly different than the GHSA’s published standings.