Is Buford’s rise a mirage? Wolves fall 3 spots in predicted PSR playoff seeding

Buford jumped 13 places in the Georgia High School Association’s Post Season Ranking standings to No. 6 this week, but according to the Maxwell Ratings, the Wolves will finish No. 11 — three places below last week’s projection.

This comes after Buford, now ranked No. 2 in two national polls, defeated a fellow top-25 national opponent, Miami Central, 18-7 last week.

Buford is 3-0, but its projected opponents’ winning percentage is only .428, per Maxwell. The PSR’s basic formula is team winning percentage plus opponents’ winning percentage plus opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. This is the first season the GHSA has used a ratings formula to seed every state playoff bracket 1-32 with little regard to region finish.

Another school that could struggle to get a high seed is Calvary Day, AJC Varsity’s No. 2 team in Class 4A-2A private (and Maxwell’s No. 1).

Calvary is No. 13 in the PSR and projected to rise no higher than No. 10. Calvary lost last week to Ambassador Christian, an undefeated North Carolina team. GHSA rules give no credit for winning percentages of non-GHSA opponents.

Maxwell also has a bad forecast for Marist, the AJC’s No. 3 Class 5A team. Marist is No. 4 in the PSR but projected to finish No. 12. Marist lost to Brookwood, a 7A opponent, 27-21 last week.

Other Top 10 teams in AJC rankings that are projected to be seeded at least seven places below their strength, according to Maxwell, are, in order, Charlton County, Houston County, Jones County, Southwest DeKalb, Savannah Christian, Douglass, Greater Atlanta Christian, Gainesville, Swainsboro and Roswell.

Projected playoff teams benefiting most from the PSR, according to Maxwell and in order, are Dutchtown, Heritage (Conyers), Chattahoochee County, LaFayette, Shiloh, Ringgold, GMC Prep, Islands, Statesboro and Dunwoody.