Wanted: A politician who can count votes and read an opinion poll.
That might sound like asking for a fish that can swim or a competitive eater who likes the taste of processed meat. But the subject here is school choice, which apparently keeps the wind off the raised fingers of Georgia politicians.
The electorate could hardly speak more clearly about the issue. The latest cry comes from the AJC’s pre-legislative session poll, which found 61 percent of Georgians favor expanding options for parents and students.
A majority supported school choice in every demographic group. Neither sex nor political party nor race nor age nor geography nor income nor education level brought the approval number below 50 percent.
Now, it’s not unusual to see solid numbers for questions about issues when there’s no mention of money. Support tends to fall, often sharply, when people are asked if they’d pay more in taxes or be willing to shift existing funds from something else they value. Such a follow-up question isn’t always asked, but it was in this case.
The result was a gravity-defying rise in support for school choice. When school-choice supporters were asked if they also back "public tax dollars going to private or religious schools where parents get government-funded school vouchers to pay for tuition," 69 percent said yes.
Support went up on the second question among almost every group. The margin among Democrats went up by 17 points and among independents by 15 points. (Republican support was equally sky-high on both questions.) It rose among white voters by 13 points and black voters by 17 points. It gained double-digits among every age group and income level, and among both college grads and non-grads.
Approval for using public tax dollars to fund private-school vouchers was at least 60 percent among 24 of 25 groups. Astonishing.
But this shouldn’t have been the first inkling Georgia politicians had of the popularity of this idea. Last May, GOP primary voters were asked a very robust question about empowering parents through school choice, and 75 percent of them answered in the affirmative.
A majority favored school choice in all 156 counties where the question was asked. Amazingly, that statistic understates the measure's support. It garnered at least 65 percent of the vote in all but one of those counties: Pierce County, where it got a mere 56 percent.
The five counties with the most GOP primary voters went like this: Cobb, 72 percent; Gwinnett, 77 percent; Cherokee, 74 percent; Fulton, 79 percent; Forsyth, 74 percent. In Hall, from which both Gov. Nathan Deal and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle hail, it got 75 percent. In Fannin, home of Speaker David Ralston, the number was 77 percent.
And yet, in the legislative session that began this week, virtually no one expects a meaningful school-choice bill to pass.
Lawmakers seem spooked by last year’s Opportunity School District referendum, which failed in lop-sided fashion. If so, they’re taking the wrong lesson from that vote: It didn’t have a choice component, and it offered no benefit to the nearly 1.7 million public-school students who don’t attend chronically failing schools. A strong school-choice measure wouldn’t have either flaw. (Teachers unions are also unlikely to spend another $5 million on ads to defeat a bill.)
Someday, a Republican aspiring to statewide office will figure out this is an issue that would help win a primary and carry over into the general election.
Someday.
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