Why early PSR standings have several 0-3 football teams in the playoff picture

It’s early in the season, but the GHSA’s new playoff seeding model has several 0-3 teams in the mix for playoff spots, according to the updated Post Season Ranking standings.

The PSR is similar to the Rating Percentage Index ranking metric used in college sports. It rewards strength of schedule by considering a team’s winning percentage, its opponents’ winning percentage and its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.

All GHSA brackets — Class A through Class 7A — will seed 32 spots in a five-round playoff. Before the PSR era, playoff spots were given to the top four finishers in every region. Standings acknowledged only region records, so nonregion opponents didn’t affect seeding.

Under PSR, only the region champion gets an automatic playoff berth.

Four playoff classifications have used PSR since 2024, giving schools a glimpse at how it works.

This year, all eight classes will experience how every opponent — and the strength of every opponent — counts. A month into the season, several 0-3 teams are within 10 spots of the top 32 of their classifications’ PSR standings.

The PSR ranking, opponents’ winning percentage — or OWP — and opponent’s opponents’ winning percentage — OOWP — for six of those teams are denoted below.

Six 0-3 Georgia high school football teams on the playoff bubble as of Week 4

• Class 6A
• No. 41 Alpharetta
• OWP: 0.83333
• OOWP: 0.44444
• Class 5A
• No. 32 Jenkins
• OWP: 1.00000
• OOWP: 0.44444
• No. 35 Jones County
• OWP: 1.00000
• OOWP: 0.35556
• Class 4A
• No. 31 Dawson County
• OWP: 1.00000
• OOWP: 0.22222
• No. 40 Cherokee Bluff
• OWP: 0.66667
• OOWP: 0.50000
• Class A
• No. 35 Lanier County
• OWP: 0.66667
• OOWP: 0.43889

The inclusion of winless teams four weeks into the season isn’t surprising to Kent Morrow, the GHSA’s PSR representative. Morrow said he expects teams with low winning percentages to fall as the season goes on, especially if those teams eventually play another losing team.

“It’s scheduling and beating quality opponents who play quality opponents who play quality opponents,” Morrow said. “So early in the season, you may have a situation where a team has lost several games, but they have gone against teams that may well be undefeated.”

Morrow added that winning is ultimately vital to earning a strong PSR ranking, but it is technically possible for a team with a losing record to make the playoffs.

“I guess if you were, say, in a region that was really, really strong, and you lost to those teams in your region, and they were beating other people as well, then perhaps that scenario could happen,” he said. “But I would think that would be an anomaly rather than a usual circumstance.”

To Morrow’s point, winning has helped almost every team through the first four weeks of the season. Cedartown is the only 2-1 team ranked outside the top 40, and its three opponents have a combined record of 1-8.

PSR is having an interesting effect on at least one 0-3 program. Alpharetta is winless but ranked No. 41 in Class 6A, as the Raiders’ three opponents have a combined record of 8-1.

First-year Alpharetta coach Danny Carlisle knows an 0-3 start can demoralize a team before it has a chance to find its stride. But this season, Carlisle has mathematic evidence his team isn’t simply losing to bad opponents.

“In the past, you go 0-3, and you’re just like, ‘Hey guys, all that matters is region play,’ but your team still is probably thinking, ‘Our region is tough. We’re 0-3. How are we going to do this?’” Carlisle said. “Now, how I’m talking to kids is, ‘We played three tough games, and we fought each time, and we made mistakes that are easily fixable.’

“I go, ‘You guys should feel good. We’re right in the playoff hunt. We win this next game, and we’re probably in the playoffs.’”

Carlisle added that most of his players don’t understand the PSR, but he contends they don’t need to. He just needs to show them they’re still in the fight.