SPOTLIGHT

Latest PSR update shows how seeding will help one super region, hurt another

According to the Maxwell Ratings, Region 7-6A — featuring No. 5 Milton, No. 6 Gainesville and No. 7 Roswell — will be on the road starting in the second round.
Gainesville coach Santavious Bryant — pictured during the team's August game against Buford — has his team No. 6 in Class 6A, however the Maxwell Ratings predict that the Red Elephants will finish 16th in the Post Season Rankings. (Erik S. Lesser for the AJC)
Gainesville coach Santavious Bryant — pictured during the team's August game against Buford — has his team No. 6 in Class 6A, however the Maxwell Ratings predict that the Red Elephants will finish 16th in the Post Season Rankings. (Erik S. Lesser for the AJC)
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20 minutes ago

The GHSA’s move to a math model to seed 32 playoff teams in all classes this year was designed to help super leagues such as football Region 2 and Region 7 in Class 6A.

Both regions have three teams in the Top 8 of the AJC Varsity rankings: No. 1 Thomas County Central, No. 3 Coffee and No. 4 Lee County from Region 2 and No. 5 Milton, No. 6 Gainesville and No. 7 Roswell from Region 7.

Since the GHSA went to 32-team brackets in 1996, a Top 10 team that finished third in a super region was effectively seeded no higher than 17-24.

Will the GHSA’s Post Season Rankings do these two regions justice? For one, yes, the other, no, according to the Maxwell Ratings.

For Region 2, Maxwell projects Thomas County Central and Lee County to finish 1-2 in the PSR standings, with Coffee coming in fifth.

That’s how the GHSA’s executive committee hoped the PSR would work — rewarding the best teams regardless of region finish — when it voted in the format that seeds strictly on classwide performance as measured by the PSR formula, which adds winning percentage to opponents’ winning percentage to opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.

The forecast for Region 7 is not so good, however.

According to Maxwell, Milton will end as a 9-seed in the PSR, Roswell will be No. 10 and Gainesville will be No. 16.

Under that scenario, all three would be on the road as early as the second round of a 32-team bracket, and Milton could travel to Thomas County Central in the quarterfinals.

The difference between the two regions’ expected outcomes is scheduling.

Gainesville chose to play Top 25 national teams — Buford and East St. Louis of Illinois — and lost both. Further, the GHSA does not count the winning percentages of non-GHSA opponents, so Gainesville does not benefit from East St. Louis’ 5-1 record.

Milton beat an otherwise undefeated out-of-state team, Battle Ground of Tennessee, but gets no credit for that team’s success. Milton also suffered a 1-point loss to Blessed Trinity.

Region 2’s big three have played challenging schedules too, with Thomas County Central and Lee County each gaining victories over Top 10 Class 7A opponent Colquitt County, but the three have beaten four Florida teams with a combined record of 6-16. That .273 winning percentage won’t be held against them, per GHSA rules.

In other PSR news, Buford dropped to No. 9 from No. 2 in the PSR this week despite improving its record to 6-0. That keeps with the weekly Maxwell projections that Buford would keep winning but continue dropping in the PSR.

Buford, the composite No. 1 team in Class 7A with Top 5 national rankings, is now projected to finish No. 11 in the PSR and behind Grayson, a three-loss team the Wolves beat this month. Buford’s opponents’ winning percentages are weak, and the Wolves’ victories over two out-of-state opponents are discounted.

Below are the GHSA’s PSR standings as of Tuesday afternoon. The list shows each team’s PSR current standings and its projected finish.

The GHSA’s standings do not include private school teams in classes 4A, 3A and 2A. They also depend on athletic directors reporting scores. More than 50 scores were unreported as of Tuesday.

Class 7A

Class 6A

Class 5A

Class 4A

Class 3A

Class 2A

Class A

Class 4A-2A Private