GHSA football projections: Lee County, Blessed Trinity favored in big games

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

		Favorite		Projection			Underdog
Date	Game Rating	Class	Team	Pct	Median Scores	Median Margin	Team	Class
Fri, Sep 25	95.41	6A	Lee County	80.8%	37 - 27	10	Thomas County Central	6A
Fri, Sep 25	82.81	5A	Blessed Trinity	65.3%	21 - 14	7	Marist	5A
Fri, Sep 25	79.85	7A	Carrollton	90.7%	35 - 14	21	Archer	7A
Fri, Sep 25	73.25	6A	Coffee	87.2%	21 - 0	21	Tift County	6A
Fri, Sep 25	70.43	7A	East Coweta	81.3%	27 - 14	13	Richmond Hill	7A
Fri, Sep 25	66.66	5A	Ola	77.0%	21 - 8	13	Jones County	5A
Fri, Sep 25	64.94	7A	Valdosta	95.8%	41 - 14	27	Stockbridge	5A
Fri, Sep 25	64.26	3A	Toombs County	92.9%	34 - 10	24	Pierce County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	62.49	2A	Fitzgerald	57.4%	18 - 14	4	Jeff Davis	2A
Fri, Sep 25	62.40	6A	Roswell	94.3%	28 - 0	28	Lanier	6A
Fri, Sep 25	61.99	5A	Benedictine	85.9%	28 - 14	14	Richmond Academy	5A
Fri, Sep 25	60.46	2A	Bleckley County	77.3%	23 - 13	10	Dublin	2A
Fri, Sep 25	60.42	5A	LaGrange	79.9%	24 - 13	11	Whitewater	5A
Fri, Sep 25	60.15	6A	Clarke Central	70.5%	21 - 14	7	Mountain View	6A
Fri, Sep 25	60.02	6A	Effingham County	69.4%	28 - 21	7	Bradwell Institute	6A
Fri, Sep 25	59.92	7A	Brookwood	97.6%	36 - 0	36	Norcross	7A
Fri, Sep 25	58.69	5A	Statesboro	56.5%	19 - 14	5	Ware County	5A
Fri, Sep 25	58.30	4A	Troup	92.7%	33 - 8	25	Mary Persons	4A
Fri, Sep 25	58.28	3A	Hart County	86.8%	31 - 14	17	Lumpkin County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	57.90	6A	East Paulding	99.0%	40 - 0	40	New Manchester	6A
Fri, Sep 25	57.83	4A	Peach County	92.6%	35 - 14	21	Spalding	4A
Thu, Sep 24	57.67	7A	North Forsyth	86.7%	28 - 10	18	West Forsyth	7A
Fri, Sep 25	57.40	7A	Douglas County	90.7%	30 - 8	22	Rome	6A
Fri, Sep 25	57.15	Private	Prince Avenue Christian	84.9%	28 - 14	14	Fellowship Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 25	57.02	6A	Jackson County	92.9%	33 - 8	25	Habersham Central	6A
Thu, Sep 24	56.13	7A	Lambert	93.7%	35 - 13	22	South Forsyth	7A
Fri, Sep 25	55.41	4A	Cairo	87.6%	28 - 8	20	Worth County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	55.09	5A	Dalton	85.9%	28 - 14	14	Cedartown	5A
Fri, Sep 25	54.80	5A	Cartersville	96.6%	35 - 6	29	Villa Rica	5A
Fri, Sep 25	53.90	Private	Lovett	78.8%	24 - 13	11	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	3A
Fri, Sep 25	53.73	7A	North Paulding	97.1%	30 - 0	30	Paulding County	7A
Fri, Sep 25	53.19	6A	Northside (Warner Robins)	78.6%	21 - 8	13	Veterans	6A
Fri, Sep 25	52.83	2A	Thomasville	72.6%	27 - 18	9	Berrien	2A
Fri, Sep 25	52.08	2A	Bremen	77.4%	24 - 13	11	Model	2A
Fri, Sep 25	51.66	3A	Burke County	54.5%	21 - 21	0	Hephzibah	3A
Fri, Sep 25	50.94	7A	South Gwinnett	93.4%	30 - 6	24	Carver (Columbus)	3A
Fri, Sep 25	50.73	5A	Perry	64.1%	30 - 27	3	Locust Grove	5A
Fri, Sep 25	50.57	Private	Hebron Christian	83.6%	27 - 12	15	Morgan County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	50.03	Private	Wesleyan	61.2%	26 - 21	5	Gilmer	4A
Thu, Sep 24	49.92	6A	Woodward Academy	90.8%	28 - 6	22	Northside (Columbus)	6A
Fri, Sep 25	48.33	3A	Northeast	83.6%	21 - 6	15	Lamar County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	47.85	5A	Central (Carrollton)	96.8%	38 - 7	31	Harris County	5A
Fri, Sep 25	47.51	2A	Jasper County	50.7%	19 - 19	0	Laney	2A
Fri, Sep 25	47.37	5A	Dutchtown	68.9%	21 - 14	7	M.L. King	5A
Fri, Sep 25	47.14	6A	Newnan	88.8%	28 - 7	21	McIntosh	6A
Fri, Sep 25	46.55	5A	Cass	94.6%	35 - 8	27	Woodland (Cartersville)	5A
Fri, Sep 25	45.25	3A	Franklin County	76.1%	22 - 13	9	Stephens County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	44.94	4A	West Laurens	81.2%	20 - 6	14	Southeast Bulloch	4A
Thu, Sep 24	44.87	5A	Griffin	86.2%	30 - 14	16	Lithia Springs	5A
Fri, Sep 25	44.75	Private	Calvary Day	97.4%	34 - 0	34	Rockdale County	7A
Fri, Sep 25	44.74	4A	Westover	68.6%	21 - 14	7	Bainbridge	4A
Fri, Sep 25	42.99	GIAA 4A	Bulloch Academy	60.9%	24 - 21	3	Strong Rock Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 25	42.79	6A	Hughes	97.5%	34 - 0	34	Lovejoy	6A
Fri, Sep 25	42.63	7A	Collins Hill	91.9%	22 - 0	22	Central Gwinnett	7A
Fri, Sep 25	42.42	6A	Walnut Grove	71.7%	21 - 13	8	Loganville	6A
Fri, Sep 25	42.32	4A	Hampton	82.7%	26 - 12	14	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4A
Fri, Sep 25	41.89	2A	ACE Charter	61.6%	21 - 16	5	Vidalia	2A
Fri, Sep 25	41.79	6A	Chapel Hill	53.7%	21 - 20	1	Alexander	6A
Fri, Sep 25	41.63	6A	Brunswick	92.7%	35 - 14	21	Greenbrier	6A
Fri, Sep 25	41.37	4A	Harlem	62.1%	22 - 19	3	Long County	4A
Fri, Sep 25	40.00	4A	Baldwin	88.0%	33 - 14	19	Westside (Macon)	4A
Fri, Sep 25	39.55	5A	Southwest DeKalb	92.3%	27 - 0	27	Maynard Jackson	5A
Fri, Sep 25	39.37	4A	Woodland (Stockbridge)	73.3%	20 - 10	10	McDonough	4A
Fri, Sep 25	39.17	6A	South Effingham	80.8%	20 - 6	14	Grovetown	6A
Fri, Sep 25	39.12	GIAA 4A	Stratford Academy	83.9%	27 - 13	14	First Presbyterian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 25	39.06	Private	Mount Vernon	67.2%	24 - 19	5	King's Ridge Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 25	39.06	3A	Carver (Atlanta)	70.2%	21 - 13	8	Miller Grove	3A
Fri, Sep 25	38.97	3A	Westside (Augusta)	71.1%	21 - 14	7	Washington County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	38.42	Private	Aquinas	70.5%	23 - 14	9	Putnam County	2A
Fri, Sep 25	37.67	7A	Parkview	99.2%	42 - 0	42	Duluth	7A
Fri, Sep 25	37.64	6A	Gainesville	99.7%	43 - 0	43	Alpharetta	6A
Fri, Sep 25	37.18	5A	Evans	75.9%	28 - 17	11	Wayne County	5A
Fri, Sep 25	36.08	2A	Screven County	76.3%	20 - 7	13	McIntosh County Academy	1A
Fri, Sep 25	35.76	Private	Christian Heritage	79.9%	31 - 20	11	Fannin County	2A
Thu, Sep 24	35.70	5A	Mays	98.2%	34 - 0	34	Banneker	5A
Fri, Sep 25	35.42	2A	Swainsboro	86.2%	28 - 14	14	East Laurens	2A
Fri, Sep 25	35.19	5A	Tucker	99.5%	38 - 0	38	Druid Hills	5A
Fri, Sep 25	33.05	6A	Shiloh	82.6%	21 - 6	15	Lakeside (Atlanta)	6A
Fri, Sep 25	32.55	6A	Hiram	88.7%	27 - 6	21	South Paulding	6A
Thu, Sep 24	32.50	3A	Callaway	88.2%	28 - 9	19	Pike County	3A
Thu, Sep 24	32.49	7A	Denmark	95.3%	31 - 0	31	Forsyth Central	7A
Fri, Sep 25	32.46	Private	Westminster (Atlanta)	66.8%	21 - 14	7	North Springs	4A
Fri, Sep 25	32.40	6A	Glynn Academy	88.7%	31 - 14	17	Lakeside (Evans)	6A
Fri, Sep 25	32.29	Private	Darlington	59.3%	26 - 21	5	Mount Zion (Carrollton)	2A
Fri, Sep 25	32.25	GIAA 4A	Brookstone	58.8%	21 - 20	1	Manchester	1A
Fri, Sep 25	32.15	4A	New Hampstead	92.4%	28 - 6	22	Liberty County	4A
Fri, Sep 25	31.97	3A	Ringgold	89.7%	28 - 7	21	North Murray	3A
Fri, Sep 25	31.79	3A	LaFayette	77.5%	24 - 14	10	Murray County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	31.69	4A	Stephenson	98.6%	37 - 0	37	Pace Academy	Private
Fri, Sep 25	31.46	6A	Dunwoody	83.8%	28 - 14	14	Alcovy	6A
Fri, Sep 25	31.32	6A	Cedar Shoals	78.1%	22 - 12	10	Apalachee	6A
Fri, Sep 25	31.05	GIAA 4A	St. Anne-Pacelli	79.0%	21 - 7	14	Deerfield-Windsor	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 25	30.89	4A	Howard	89.8%	27 - 6	21	Upson-Lee	4A
Fri, Sep 25	30.85	Private	Whitefield Academy	88.9%	32 - 14	18	Athens Academy	Private
Fri, Sep 25	30.61	3A	Columbia	98.4%	35 - 0	35	Cedar Grove	3A
Fri, Sep 25	30.54	Private	Holy Innocents	98.1%	37 - 0	37	Temple	3A
Fri, Sep 25	29.75	6A	Creekside	99.8%	44 - 0	44	Morrow	6A
Fri, Sep 25	29.72	5A	Warner Robins	96.6%	35 - 0	35	Eagle's Landing	5A
Fri, Sep 25	29.57	3A	Crisp County	96.2%	35 - 6	29	Landmark Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 25	29.09	2A	Brooks County	92.2%	32 - 9	23	Bacon County	2A
Fri, Sep 25	28.85	7A	Buford	100.0%	49 - 0	49	Seckinger	7A
Fri, Sep 25	28.65	1A	Bowdon	94.4%	32 - 6	26	Calvary Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 25	27.98	4A	North Hall	96.2%	41 - 14	27	East Hall	4A
Fri, Sep 25	26.71	3A	Coahulla Creek	69.3%	19 - 10	9	Sonoraville	3A
Fri, Sep 25	26.40	7A	Mill Creek	96.4%	34 - 0	34	Discovery	7A
Fri, Sep 25	26.36	GIAA 3A	Athens Christian	70.4%	21 - 13	8	George Walton Academy	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 25	26.25	4A	Sandy Creek	99.9%	43 - 0	43	Luella	4A
Fri, Sep 25	25.81	2A	Rabun County	88.2%	28 - 9	19	Banks County	2A
Fri, Sep 25	25.68	3A	Haralson County	88.2%	24 - 2	22	Therrell	3A
Fri, Sep 25	25.58	1A	Early County	81.0%	28 - 14	14	Miller County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	25.48	3A	Jackson	88.6%	27 - 7	20	Rutland	3A
Fri, Sep 25	24.33	6A	Milton	99.9%	45 - 0	45	Johns Creek	6A
Fri, Sep 25	23.45	3A	Rockmart	98.1%	34 - 0	34	Union County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	23.12	Private	Eagle's Landing Christian	94.7%	32 - 6	26	Greene County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	22.53	5A	Drew	71.6%	23 - 14	9	Arabia Mountain	5A
Fri, Sep 25	21.09	1A	Jenkins County	63.6%	21 - 14	7	Georgia Military Prep	1A
Fri, Sep 25	20.89	GIAA 4A	Tattnall Square	57.2%	16 - 14	2	Mount de Sales	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 25	20.66	1A	Hawkinsville	63.2%	23 - 20	3	Dooly County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	20.15	GIAA 2A	Briarwood Academy	80.0%	21 - 7	14	Thomas Jefferson	GIAA 1A
Fri, Sep 25	19.72	1A	Clinch County	96.7%	33 - 0	33	Seminole County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	19.64	1A	Treutlen	95.0%	31 - 0	31	Telfair County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	18.68	1A	Turner County	51.1%	21 - 21	0	Wilcox County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	18.67	4A	Fayette County	63.5%	19 - 14	5	Riverdale	4A
Fri, Sep 25	18.27	3A	Appling County	99.6%	35 - 0	35	Brantley County	3A
Fri, Sep 25	18.25	1A	Baconton Charter	67.2%	19 - 12	7	Terrell Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 25	17.98	2A	Heard County	99.9%	45 - 0	45	Coosa	2A
Fri, Sep 25	17.66	GIAA 4A	Bethlehem Christian	79.4%	24 - 13	11	Lakeview Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 25	17.35	6A	Chamblee	81.7%	23 - 8	15	Midtown	6A
Fri, Sep 25	17.33	5A	Eastside	93.6%	28 - 0	28	Mundy's Mill	5A
Fri, Sep 25	17.19	3A	Beach	83.0%	23 - 7	16	Islands	3A
Fri, Sep 25	16.48	1A	Johnson County	98.2%	38 - 0	38	Glascock County	1A
Thu, Sep 24	16.40	4A	Dougherty	98.6%	38 - 0	38	Columbus	4A
Fri, Sep 25	15.56	2A	Gordon Lee	88.3%	24 - 0	24	Chattooga	2A
Fri, Sep 25	14.22	3A	Tattnall County	75.3%	28 - 20	8	Johnson (Savannah)	3A
Fri, Sep 25	13.62	1A	Warren County	92.7%	28 - 0	28	Bryan County	2A
Fri, Sep 25	13.08	1A	Trion	96.7%	35 - 0	35	Northview	5A
Fri, Sep 25	11.85	4A	Douglass	99.8%	42 - 0	42	Salem	4A
Fri, Sep 25	10.80	3A	South Atlanta	89.2%	26 - 3	23	Redan	3A
Fri, Sep 25	10.58	GIAA 3A	Tiftarea Academy	88.8%	24 - 0	24	Southland Academy	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 25	9.88	6A	Heritage (Conyers)	99.3%	42 - 0	42	Meadowcreek	6A
Fri, Sep 25	9.71	GIAA 1A	Flint River Academy	83.0%	21 - 6	15	Piedmont Academy	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 25	9.25	2A	Social Circle	97.8%	35 - 0	35	Jefferson County	2A
Fri, Sep 25	8.75	1A	Taylor County	99.3%	42 - 0	42	Chattahoochee County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	8.64	GIAA 2A	Gatewood School	77.5%	23 - 13	10	Trinity Christian (Dublin)	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 25	7.88	1A	Randolph-Clay	97.8%	33 - 0	33	Kendrick	3A
Thu, Sep 24	7.39	3A	Southwest	91.7%	27 - 0	27	Central (Macon)	3A
Fri, Sep 25	7.05	4A	Southeast Whitfield	56.8%	26 - 22	4	Towns County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	6.94	1A	Montgomery County	95.2%	31 - 0	31	Atkinson County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	3.85	GIAA 2A	Brentwood School	98.5%	40 - 0	40	Pinewood Christian	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 25	2.29	4A	Monroe	99.0%	36 - 0	36	Hardaway	4A
Fri, Sep 25	1.18	1A	Wilkinson County	90.2%	27 - 6	21	Twiggs County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	0.46	Private	Walker	54.4%	21 - 21	0	Mount Pisgah Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 25	-0.05	1A	Lake Oconee Academy	93.2%	27 - 0	27	Towers	3A
Fri, Sep 25	-0.44	5A	Jenkins	99.9%	49 - 0	49	Groves	5A
Fri, Sep 25	-1.14	5A	Jonesboro	99.8%	39 - 0	39	Forest Park	5A
Fri, Sep 25	-2.01	1A	Claxton	93.2%	21 - 0	21	Savannah	2A
Fri, Sep 25	-2.94	GIAA 2A	Sherwood Christian	92.7%	42 - 24	18	Calhoun County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	-3.33	7A	Peachtree Ridge	100.0%	50 - 0	50	Berkmar	7A
Fri, Sep 25	-3.52	GIAA 2A	Edmund Burke Academy	99.3%	38 - 0	38	Robert Toombs Academy	GIAA 1A
Fri, Sep 25	-4.71	1A	Mitchell County	98.6%	24 - 0	24	Pelham	1A
Fri, Sep 25	-5.26	1A	Marion County	82.0%	27 - 13	14	Crawford County	1A
Fri, Sep 25	-6.29	2A	Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe	94.1%	33 - 7	26	Gordon Central	2A
Fri, Sep 25	-8.61	2A	Pepperell	99.5%	35 - 0	35	Armuchee	2A
Fri, Sep 25	-12.66	2A	Glenn Hills	96.8%	31 - 0	31	Josey	2A
Fri, Sep 25	-13.58	GIAA 2A	Valwood School	99.9%	48 - 0	48	Pataula Charter	1A
Fri, Sep 25	-13.68	GIAA 3A	Riverside Prep	81.8%	28 - 14	14	Loganville Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 25	-14.83	3A	Butler	91.6%	26 - 0	26	Cross Creek	3A
Fri, Sep 25	-16.83	1A	Greenville	72.2%	31 - 23	8	Jordan	3A
Thu, Sep 24	-17.13	4A	Stone Mountain	59.6%	21 - 19	2	Clarkston	4A
Fri, Sep 25	-17.92	GIAA 3A	Westminster (Augusta)	93.4%	35 - 13	22	Central Fellowship Christian	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 25	-18.08	GIAA 3A	Augusta Prep	89.5%	31 - 13	18	St. Andrew's School	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 25	-19.59	GAPPS	Lanier Christian	97.1%	34 - 0	34	Skipstone Academy	GAPPS
Fri, Sep 25	-22.29	GAPPS	Creekside Christian	87.5%	32 - 14	18	Heritage (Newnan)	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 25	-24.49	1A	Schley County	99.9%	45 - 0	45	Central (Talbotton)	1A
Fri, Sep 25	-44.47	5A	Johnson (Gainesville)	97.9%	28 - 0	28	Cross Keys	5A

Alerts

Maxwell projections: Lee County, Blessed Trinity favored in highest-rated games