GHSA football projections: Brookwood-Marist, Gainesville-McEachern will be close

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

		Favorite		Projection			Underdog
Date	Game Rating	Class	Team	Pct	Median Scores	Median Margin	Team	Class
Fri, Sep 11	87.64	7A	Brookwood	57.7%	21 - 20	1	Marist	5A
Fri, Sep 11	86.92	6A	Gainesville	52.9%	21 - 20	1	McEachern	7A
Fri, Sep 11	83.81	6A	Lee County	93.5%	38 - 17	21	Colquitt County	7A
Fri, Sep 11	79.09	7A	Parkview	55.4%	26 - 24	2	Peachtree Ridge	7A
Fri, Sep 11	73.63	5A	Blessed Trinity	87.4%	27 - 10	17	Lambert	7A
Fri, Sep 11	73.40	5A	North Oconee	83.7%	28 - 16	12	Jackson County	6A
Fri, Sep 11	72.18	7A	East Coweta	72.4%	28 - 20	8	Douglass	4A
Fri, Sep 11	70.95	5A	Ware County	52.2%	21 - 20	1	Richmond Hill	7A
Fri, Sep 11	70.38	6A	Houston County	89.0%	35 - 19	16	Central (Carrollton)	5A
Fri, Sep 11	70.25	7A	Westlake	89.4%	31 - 14	17	Northside (Warner Robins)	6A
Fri, Sep 11	69.71	5A	Cartersville	92.5%	31 - 12	19	West Forsyth	7A
Fri, Sep 11	68.76	7A	Walton	79.6%	25 - 14	11	North Paulding	7A
Fri, Sep 11	67.80	Private	Prince Avenue Christian	65.7%	25 - 20	5	Greater Atlanta Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 11	67.42	7A	Grayson	94.2%	33 - 8	25	Brunswick	6A
Fri, Sep 11	67.31	6A	Kell	75.3%	27 - 18	9	Lassiter	6A
Fri, Sep 11	67.24	7A	Carrollton	99.0%	41 - 0	41	Hapeville Charter	3A
Fri, Sep 11	66.99	6A	Rome	66.5%	21 - 16	5	Creekview	6A
Fri, Sep 11	66.94	7A	Norcross	58.8%	24 - 21	3	North Atlanta	7A
Fri, Sep 11	65.70	7A	Archer	90.5%	29 - 12	17	Collins Hill	7A
Fri, Sep 11	65.16	5A	Dalton	64.6%	23 - 20	3	Calhoun	4A
Fri, Sep 11	64.87	4A	Stephenson	82.8%	24 - 12	12	Griffin	5A
Fri, Sep 11	64.84	4A	Monroe Area	62.2%	26 - 21	5	Flowery Branch	5A
Fri, Sep 11	64.39	2A	Thomasville	53.7%	25 - 23	2	Worth County	3A
Fri, Sep 11	63.84	6A	Creekside	96.8%	37 - 7	30	Newnan	6A
Fri, Sep 11	63.81	7A	Newton	99.1%	41 - 0	41	Warner Robins	5A
Fri, Sep 11	63.47	7A	North Gwinnett	98.8%	41 - 0	41	Mill Creek	7A
Fri, Sep 11	63.30	5A	Southwest DeKalb	61.3%	22 - 20	2	Carver (Columbus)	3A
Fri, Sep 11	61.79	6A	Tift County	66.9%	22 - 17	5	Crisp County	3A
Fri, Sep 11	61.69	Private	Savannah Christian	52.5%	21 - 21	0	Fellowship Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 11	61.57	3A	Northeast	57.5%	21 - 20	1	Perry	5A
Fri, Sep 11	61.40	4A	Cairo	83.0%	27 - 14	13	Westover	4A
Fri, Sep 11	61.23	7A	Etowah	70.6%	26 - 19	7	Paulding County	7A
Fri, Sep 11	61.17	7A	Denmark	77.5%	28 - 18	10	Cambridge	5A
Fri, Sep 11	61.04	3A	Burke County	66.2%	24 - 20	4	Jones County	5A
Fri, Sep 11	60.90	4A	Troup	94.2%	31 - 7	24	Spalding	4A
Fri, Sep 11	60.63	2A	Heard County	61.9%	25 - 21	4	Bowdon	1A
Fri, Sep 11	60.59	7A	North Forsyth	72.1%	26 - 18	8	Campbell	7A
Fri, Sep 11	60.41	6A	Thomas County Central	99.3%	41 - 0	41	Lithonia	5A
Fri, Sep 11	59.52	2A	Fitzgerald	71.9%	24 - 17	7	Dodge County	2A
Fri, Sep 11	59.14	3A	Pierce County	76.6%	28 - 20	8	Swainsboro	2A
Fri, Sep 11	58.95	5A	Whitewater	77.8%	29 - 20	9	Locust Grove	5A
Fri, Sep 11	58.86	4A	West Laurens	55.2%	22 - 21	1	Cook	2A
Fri, Sep 11	58.21	7A	South Forsyth	65.3%	27 - 21	6	Centennial	5A
Fri, Sep 11	57.14	6A	Lovejoy	76.3%	24 - 14	10	Northside (Columbus)	6A
Fri, Sep 11	56.92	5A	Eastside	54.7%	21 - 20	1	Jonesboro	5A
Fri, Sep 11	56.68	7A	Harrison	91.4%	28 - 7	21	Wheeler	7A
Fri, Sep 11	56.65	3A	Morgan County	69.6%	24 - 17	7	Mountain View	6A
Fri, Sep 11	56.63	1A	Lincoln County	62.0%	22 - 20	2	Harlem	4A
Fri, Sep 11	56.44	4A	North Clayton	53.6%	21 - 20	1	Hampton	4A
Fri, Sep 11	55.82	Private	North Cobb Christian	61.0%	25 - 21	4	Wesleyan	Private
Fri, Sep 11	55.59	3A	Hart County	85.8%	28 - 14	14	Winder-Barrow	5A
Fri, Sep 11	55.23	GIAA 4A	Stratford Academy	51.8%	22 - 21	1	Whitefield Academy	Private
Fri, Sep 11	55.03	5A	Mays	91.0%	28 - 7	21	Cedar Grove	3A
Fri, Sep 11	54.94	4A	Adairsville	73.3%	23 - 14	9	Cedartown	5A
Fri, Sep 11	54.06	4A	Northwest Whitfield	58.9%	21 - 20	1	North Murray	3A
Fri, Sep 11	54.04	7A	Marietta	99.3%	38 - 0	38	Cherokee	7A
Fri, Sep 11	53.15	5A	Harris County	76.7%	24 - 14	10	New Hampstead	4A
Fri, Sep 11	52.78	5A	East Forsyth	76.7%	28 - 20	8	Pickens	4A
Fri, Sep 11	52.77	4A	Dougherty	63.2%	24 - 21	3	Monroe	4A
Fri, Sep 11	52.39	6A	New Manchester	76.6%	22 - 14	8	Chapel Hill	6A
Fri, Sep 11	52.07	5A	Ola	95.3%	29 - 0	29	Starr's Mill	5A
Fri, Sep 11	52.00	5A	Jefferson	90.0%	27 - 7	20	Maynard Jackson	5A
Fri, Sep 11	51.91	5A	Sprayberry	81.4%	31 - 20	11	Allatoona	5A
Fri, Sep 11	51.72	2A	Bleckley County	91.8%	28 - 7	21	Emanuel County Institute	1A
Fri, Sep 11	51.72	6A	East Paulding	98.1%	38 - 6	32	Hiram	6A
Fri, Sep 11	51.38	7A	Hillgrove	93.0%	30 - 7	23	Northgate	7A
Fri, Sep 11	51.09	2A	Rabun County	71.1%	22 - 14	8	Walnut Grove	6A
Thu, Sep 10	50.71	4A	Bainbridge	69.4%	22 - 16	6	Spencer	4A
Fri, Sep 11	50.10	Private	Holy Innocents	92.9%	28 - 7	21	Haralson County	3A
Fri, Sep 11	50.03	3A	Appling County	88.8%	26 - 7	19	Wayne County	5A
Fri, Sep 11	49.27	4A	Woodland (Stockbridge)	51.7%	21 - 20	1	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4A
Fri, Sep 11	48.89	3A	Westside (Augusta)	78.4%	27 - 14	13	Southeast Bulloch	4A
Fri, Sep 11	48.77	5A	Banneker	52.3%	21 - 21	0	Lithia Springs	5A
Fri, Sep 11	48.75	7A	Duluth	69.6%	27 - 20	7	Alpharetta	6A
Fri, Sep 11	48.50	3A	Sumter County	57.6%	21 - 19	2	Early County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	48.48	6A	Shiloh	91.5%	27 - 6	21	Heritage (Conyers)	6A
Fri, Sep 11	48.43	4A	Cherokee Bluff	71.9%	25 - 17	8	Dawson County	4A
Fri, Sep 11	47.96	GIAA 4A	Bulloch Academy	55.0%	21 - 21	0	Westfield School	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 11	47.78	1A	Johnson County	62.8%	21 - 18	3	Wheeler County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	47.68	7A	Central Gwinnett	67.2%	21 - 14	7	Rockdale County	7A
Fri, Sep 11	47.63	Private	Mount Vernon	72.5%	27 - 19	8	St. Anne-Pacelli	GIAA 4A
Thu, Sep 10	47.07	Private	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	72.3%	26 - 17	9	Pace Academy	Private
Fri, Sep 11	46.88	2A	Dublin	93.0%	28 - 6	22	Washington County	3A
Fri, Sep 11	46.69	5A	Villa Rica	89.6%	29 - 13	16	Seckinger	7A
Fri, Sep 11	46.24	7A	Valdosta	99.5%	41 - 0	41	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	3A
Fri, Sep 11	46.12	6A	Woodward Academy	97.8%	32 - 0	32	Tri-Cities	6A
Fri, Sep 11	46.04	1A	Macon County	59.9%	21 - 20	1	Manchester	1A
Fri, Sep 11	45.96	6A	Sequoyah	99.7%	42 - 0	42	River Ridge	6A
Fri, Sep 11	45.83	4A	White County	55.9%	18 - 14	4	East Jackson	4A
Fri, Sep 11	44.94	6A	Dunwoody	72.5%	23 - 14	9	Chamblee	6A
Fri, Sep 11	44.87	6A	South Paulding	64.5%	23 - 20	3	Alexander	6A
Fri, Sep 11	44.72	5A	Cass	97.8%	40 - 7	33	Heritage (Ringgold)	4A
Fri, Sep 11	44.70	Private	Darlington	50.6%	21 - 21	0	Sonoraville	3A
Fri, Sep 11	44.56	2A	Vidalia	62.1%	21 - 17	4	Metter	2A
Fri, Sep 11	43.67	6A	Woodstock	93.4%	30 - 7	23	Pope	6A
Fri, Sep 11	41.58	2A	ACE Charter	78.9%	27 - 16	11	Pike County	3A
Fri, Sep 11	41.13	6A	Veterans	88.8%	30 - 14	16	Forsyth Central	7A
Fri, Sep 11	40.85	4A	Long County	75.3%	24 - 14	10	Beach	3A
Fri, Sep 11	40.85	5A	Stockbridge	98.3%	38 - 0	38	Arabia Mountain	5A
Fri, Sep 11	40.68	7A	Kennesaw Mountain	87.1%	28 - 14	14	North Springs	4A
Fri, Sep 11	40.56	3A	Therrell	50.7%	20 - 20	0	Temple	3A
Fri, Sep 11	40.28	6A	Hughes	99.5%	38 - 0	38	Morrow	6A
Fri, Sep 11	39.97	5A	Dutchtown	91.9%	29 - 7	22	Drew	5A
Fri, Sep 11	39.96	5A	LaGrange	98.3%	35 - 0	35	Eagle's Landing	5A
Fri, Sep 11	39.76	1A	Mitchell County	53.9%	21 - 21	0	Miller County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	39.61	GIAA 2A	Valwood School	91.9%	29 - 7	22	Tiftarea Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 11	39.36	1A	Charlton County	78.4%	25 - 14	11	Frederica Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 11	39.28	6A	Decatur	85.9%	28 - 13	15	Lakeside (Atlanta)	6A
Fri, Sep 11	38.87	1A	Schley County	58.0%	22 - 21	1	Wilcox County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	38.74	5A	Madison County	74.6%	26 - 16	10	Banks County	2A
Fri, Sep 11	38.71	1A	Trion	76.1%	24 - 14	10	Dade County	2A
Fri, Sep 11	38.05	1A	Telfair County	54.1%	20 - 17	3	Portal	1A
Fri, Sep 11	36.97	2A	Commerce	93.8%	28 - 6	22	Greene County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	36.68	4A	Westside (Macon)	81.8%	27 - 14	13	Southwest	3A
Fri, Sep 11	36.66	GIAA 3A	Deerfield-Windsor	75.1%	24 - 14	10	Southwest Georgia Academy	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 11	36.45	4A	Liberty County	81.3%	24 - 12	12	McIntosh County Academy	1A
Fri, Sep 11	35.71	5A	Chattahoochee	80.1%	28 - 17	11	Johns Creek	6A
Fri, Sep 11	34.40	2A	Putnam County	87.3%	28 - 13	15	Oglethorpe County	2A
Fri, Sep 11	32.80	4A	McDonough	79.2%	21 - 10	11	Riverdale	4A
Fri, Sep 11	32.73	7A	Pebblebrook	95.1%	30 - 0	30	Riverwood	6A
Fri, Sep 11	32.14	GIAA 4A	George Walton Academy	62.5%	20 - 15	5	Mount Paran Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 11	32.01	1A	Wilkinson County	50.7%	21 - 21	0	Rutland	3A
Fri, Sep 11	31.87	1A	Irwin County	90.5%	31 - 14	17	Turner County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	31.68	4A	Oconee County	99.3%	40 - 0	40	Discovery	7A
Thu, Sep 10	31.58	5A	Druid Hills	82.8%	23 - 9	14	Redan	3A
Fri, Sep 11	31.21	4A	Shaw	89.5%	28 - 7	21	Columbus	4A
Fri, Sep 11	31.14	5A	M.L. King	94.5%	31 - 7	24	Mundy's Mill	5A
Fri, Sep 11	31.04	GIAA 4A	Strong Rock Christian	89.3%	28 - 12	16	Tattnall Square	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 11	30.77	3A	Murray County	59.5%	20 - 17	3	West Hall	4A
Fri, Sep 11	29.50	Private	Athens Academy	93.2%	28 - 6	22	Bethlehem Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 11	29.47	GIAA 4A	Brookstone	81.2%	26 - 14	12	Central (Macon)	3A
Fri, Sep 11	28.86	3A	LaFayette	91.5%	30 - 10	20	Ridgeland	4A
Fri, Sep 11	28.79	2A	Coosa	51.8%	21 - 20	1	Chattooga	2A
Fri, Sep 11	27.91	Private	Providence Christian	87.8%	28 - 10	18	Mount Pisgah Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 11	27.66	GIAA 1A	Windsor Academy	63.1%	21 - 15	6	Sherwood Christian	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 11	27.63	Private	King's Ridge Christian	92.4%	28 - 6	22	Lakeview Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 11	26.72	5A	Union Grove	79.9%	28 - 17	11	Salem	4A
Fri, Sep 11	26.13	4A	Sandy Creek	100.0%	47 - 0	47	Fayette County	4A
Fri, Sep 11	26.03	1A	B.E.S.T. Academy	50.7%	21 - 21	0	Walker	Private
Fri, Sep 11	23.65	1A	Dooly County	70.9%	20 - 12	8	Pelham	1A
Fri, Sep 11	23.52	1A	Treutlen	93.4%	30 - 7	23	Lanier County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	22.92	2A	Glenn Hills	51.4%	20 - 19	1	Georgia Military Prep	1A
Fri, Sep 11	22.22	1A	Randolph-Clay	96.9%	38 - 12	26	Calhoun County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	21.24	GIAA 2A	Southland Academy	57.0%	21 - 19	2	Gatewood School	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 11	21.08	Private	Mt. Bethel Christian	86.4%	29 - 14	15	Towers	3A
Fri, Sep 11	20.68	GIAA 2A	Brentwood School	92.4%	32 - 12	20	Trinity Christian (Dublin)	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 11	20.64	GIAA 4A	First Presbyterian	97.9%	35 - 0	35	Pinewood Christian	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 11	19.21	Private	Christian Heritage	98.7%	41 - 6	35	Chestatee	4A
Fri, Sep 11	18.96	1A	Claxton	88.5%	28 - 9	19	Hancock Central	1A
Fri, Sep 11	18.63	4A	Southeast Whitfield	60.0%	20 - 16	4	Armuchee	2A
Fri, Sep 11	17.03	2A	Washington	92.9%	30 - 7	23	Greenville	1A
Fri, Sep 11	15.79	6A	Osborne	92.3%	29 - 7	22	Berkmar	7A
Fri, Sep 11	15.55	1A	Lake Oconee Academy	96.1%	29 - 0	29	Twiggs County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	14.18	GIAA 4A	Mount de Sales	90.9%	24 - 0	24	Robert Toombs Academy	GIAA 1A
Fri, Sep 11	13.92	GIAA 2A	Briarwood Academy	96.8%	33 - 0	33	Piedmont Academy	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 11	13.72	3A	Tattnall County	90.3%	24 - 0	24	Savannah	2A
Fri, Sep 11	12.46	GAPPS	Cherokee Christian	87.6%	28 - 13	15	Creekside Christian	GAPPS
Fri, Sep 11	12.14	GIAA 3A	John Milledge Academy	99.8%	42 - 0	42	Loganville Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 11	10.65	GIAA 1A	Thomas Jefferson	83.3%	27 - 14	13	Augusta Prep	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 11	10.50	2A	Gordon Central	66.2%	22 - 17	5	Butler	3A
Fri, Sep 11	4.95	GIAA 3A	Athens Christian	97.1%	31 - 0	31	Riverside Prep	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 11	4.12	3A	South Atlanta	98.1%	34 - 0	34	Stone Mountain	4A
Fri, Sep 11	2.91	2A	Mount Zion (Carrollton)	99.1%	40 - 0	40	Towns County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	-0.38	2A	Utopian Academy	97.4%	35 - 0	35	Skipstone Academy	GAPPS
Fri, Sep 11	-8.83	1A	Baconton Charter	98.7%	24 - 0	24	Terrell County	1A
Fri, Sep 11	-9.70	3A	Cross Creek	88.8%	27 - 7	20	Josey	2A
Fri, Sep 11	-13.74	GIAA 3A	Dominion Christian	81.0%	33 - 21	12	Heritage (Newnan)	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 11	-17.44	1A	Chattahoochee County	99.8%	48 - 0	48	Jordan	3A
Fri, Sep 11	-24.49	1A	Southwest Georgia STEM	55.3%	28 - 28	0	Scintilla Charter Academy	1A
Fri, Sep 11	-36.71	4A	Clarkston	99.3%	33 - 0	33	Cross Keys	5A

Alerts

Maxwell projects Brookwood-Marist, Gainesville-McEachern will be 1-point games