Maxwell GHSA football projections: Can Grayson bounce back against Hughes?

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

		Favorite		Projection			Underdog
Date	Game Rating	Class	Team	Pct	Median Scores	Median Margin	Team	Class
Fri, Sep 04	90.05	6A	Lee County	62.3%	27 - 22	5	Sequoyah	6A
Fri, Sep 04	87.95	6A	Hughes	74.8%	28 - 21	7	Grayson	7A
Fri, Sep 04	81.80	7A	Camden County	52.0%	24 - 23	1	Benedictine	5A
Thu, Sep 03	80.26	7A	North Cobb	69.0%	28 - 21	7	East Coweta	7A
Fri, Sep 04	77.74	7A	North Gwinnett	94.8%	35 - 8	27	Walton	7A
Fri, Sep 04	77.67	7A	Westlake	71.5%	27 - 19	8	Hillgrove	7A
Fri, Sep 04	76.89	4A	Stephenson	59.7%	27 - 22	5	Tucker	5A
Fri, Sep 04	75.55	7A	Douglas County	79.1%	27 - 14	13	Douglass	4A
Fri, Sep 04	75.18	5A	Blessed Trinity	87.4%	28 - 10	18	Hebron Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 04	74.94	7A	McEachern	92.0%	31 - 10	21	Marietta	7A
Fri, Sep 04	74.66	4A	Peach County	66.8%	28 - 21	7	Jefferson	5A
Fri, Sep 04	73.41	6A	Roswell	83.2%	30 - 17	13	Etowah	7A
Fri, Sep 04	73.09	7A	Brookwood	88.5%	29 - 13	16	South Gwinnett	7A
Fri, Sep 04	72.78	7A	Parkview	65.6%	28 - 22	6	Collins Hill	7A
Fri, Sep 04	72.78	7A	Harrison	57.1%	23 - 21	2	North Paulding	7A
Fri, Sep 04	72.71	4A	Troup	79.7%	28 - 15	13	Calhoun	4A
Fri, Sep 04	72.50	5A	North Oconee	85.2%	31 - 16	15	Clarke Central	6A
Fri, Sep 04	72.12	6A	Kell	63.4%	27 - 21	6	Sprayberry	5A
Fri, Sep 04	72.11	6A	East Paulding	83.7%	30 - 17	13	Central (Carrollton)	5A
Thu, Sep 03	71.34	5A	LaGrange	71.9%	21 - 13	8	Ola	5A
Fri, Sep 04	70.96	7A	Archer	81.3%	28 - 17	11	Mill Creek	7A
Fri, Sep 04	70.26	5A	Cass	75.8%	28 - 20	8	Creekview	6A
Fri, Sep 04	68.26	6A	Tift County	66.8%	28 - 21	7	Lambert	7A
Fri, Sep 04	68.02	5A	Cartersville	90.3%	34 - 14	20	Woodstock	6A
Fri, Sep 04	67.73	7A	Richmond Hill	73.9%	24 - 14	10	Jenkins	5A
Fri, Sep 04	67.60	3A	Carver (Columbus)	57.6%	20 - 17	3	Hapeville Charter	3A
Fri, Sep 04	67.53	7A	West Forsyth	85.2%	27 - 10	17	Lanier	6A
Fri, Sep 04	65.37	3A	Morgan County	73.1%	25 - 16	9	Oconee County	4A
Fri, Sep 04	65.34	7A	Dacula	60.7%	26 - 21	5	North Forsyth	7A
Fri, Sep 04	64.17	Private	Fellowship Christian	77.4%	26 - 14	12	Lovett	Private
Fri, Sep 04	63.71	Private	Savannah Christian	77.2%	28 - 18	10	Glynn Academy	6A
Fri, Sep 04	63.05	6A	Milton	96.0%	35 - 7	28	Cambridge	5A
Fri, Sep 04	62.95	5A	Stockbridge	77.1%	27 - 16	11	Dutchtown	5A
Fri, Sep 04	62.70	6A	Houston County	97.8%	39 - 6	33	Jones County	5A
Fri, Sep 04	62.67	5A	Warner Robins	85.0%	28 - 13	15	Northside (Warner Robins)	6A
Fri, Sep 04	62.41	4A	Monroe Area	68.0%	27 - 21	6	Habersham Central	6A
Fri, Sep 04	62.17	2A	Dublin	80.8%	30 - 19	11	Baldwin	4A
Fri, Sep 04	61.70	6A	New Manchester	65.0%	22 - 17	5	Columbia	3A
Fri, Sep 04	61.56	5A	Flowery Branch	57.8%	24 - 21	3	Gilmer	4A
Fri, Sep 04	61.50	5A	Richmond Academy	51.9%	22 - 21	1	Westside (Augusta)	3A
Fri, Sep 04	61.44	7A	Denmark	78.8%	26 - 14	12	Campbell	7A
Fri, Sep 04	61.09	5A	Whitewater	77.3%	27 - 14	13	Callaway	3A
Fri, Sep 04	60.61	7A	Lowndes	96.9%	34 - 0	34	Lithonia	5A
Fri, Sep 04	59.99	3A	Toombs County	96.1%	35 - 7	28	Swainsboro	2A
Fri, Sep 04	59.93	4A	Spalding	53.8%	21 - 20	1	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	Private
Fri, Sep 04	59.52	4A	West Laurens	52.9%	21 - 21	0	Dodge County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	59.27	5A	Griffin	68.4%	21 - 14	7	Northgate	7A
Fri, Sep 04	59.21	3A	Crisp County	57.8%	21 - 17	4	Brooks County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	59.16	4A	North Hall	65.7%	24 - 19	5	Cherokee Bluff	4A
Fri, Sep 04	58.72	7A	Newton	99.3%	43 - 0	43	Locust Grove	5A
Fri, Sep 04	58.57	Private	Holy Innocents	82.3%	28 - 14	14	Mount Vernon	Private
Fri, Sep 04	58.08	7A	Paulding County	66.0%	24 - 20	4	Hiram	6A
Fri, Sep 04	57.96	6A	Shiloh	70.4%	21 - 14	7	Decatur	6A
Fri, Sep 04	57.89	1A	Lincoln County	62.0%	24 - 21	3	Aquinas	Private
Fri, Sep 04	57.80	7A	Valdosta	97.7%	40 - 7	33	Bradwell Institute	6A
Fri, Sep 04	57.78	7A	Colquitt County	97.7%	38 - 6	32	Cook	2A
Fri, Sep 04	57.41	7A	North Atlanta	80.8%	26 - 13	13	Maynard Jackson	5A
Fri, Sep 04	57.36	5A	Mays	86.6%	25 - 7	18	Pebblebrook	7A
Fri, Sep 04	57.33	1A	Bowdon	78.3%	27 - 14	13	Lamar County	3A
Fri, Sep 04	57.27	6A	Effingham County	75.7%	28 - 20	8	New Hampstead	4A
Fri, Sep 04	57.15	5A	Harris County	70.0%	21 - 14	7	Sumter County	3A
Fri, Sep 04	57.11	4A	Adairsville	50.7%	21 - 21	0	North Murray	3A
Fri, Sep 04	57.10	3A	Rockmart	78.9%	30 - 20	10	Mary Persons	4A
Fri, Sep 04	56.79	4A	Sandy Creek	99.1%	35 - 0	35	North Clayton	4A
Fri, Sep 04	56.75	2A	Bleckley County	83.2%	27 - 14	13	Jasper County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	55.81	Private	Calvary Day	95.6%	34 - 6	28	St. Pius X	5A
Fri, Sep 04	55.08	4A	Harlem	57.1%	21 - 20	1	Greenbrier	6A
Fri, Sep 04	54.62	5A	Madison County	50.7%	21 - 21	0	Franklin County	3A
Fri, Sep 04	54.53	4A	Dougherty	54.0%	22 - 21	1	Spencer	4A
Fri, Sep 04	54.34	5A	Villa Rica	85.1%	28 - 14	14	South Paulding	6A
Fri, Sep 04	54.22	3A	Lumpkin County	73.4%	27 - 18	9	White County	4A
Fri, Sep 04	53.85	3A	Elbert County	54.0%	21 - 20	1	Commerce	2A
Fri, Sep 04	53.81	5A	Evans	53.6%	24 - 22	2	Lakeside (Evans)	6A
Fri, Sep 04	53.72	GIAA 3A	John Milledge Academy	73.1%	27 - 18	9	Bulloch Academy	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 04	53.27	2A	Laney	61.6%	22 - 20	2	Hephzibah	3A
Fri, Sep 04	53.14	7A	South Forsyth	71.1%	27 - 20	7	Allatoona	5A
Fri, Sep 04	52.81	5A	Centennial	71.7%	27 - 20	7	Alpharetta	6A
Fri, Sep 04	52.77	3A	Burke County	88.0%	29 - 13	16	Southeast Bulloch	4A
Fri, Sep 04	52.42	6A	River Ridge	73.8%	25 - 15	10	Cherokee	7A
Fri, Sep 04	52.27	5A	Cedartown	60.2%	24 - 21	3	Alexander	6A
Fri, Sep 04	52.24	3A	Worth County	87.9%	29 - 14	15	Early County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	52.14	2A	Rabun County	71.3%	28 - 20	8	Dawson County	4A
Fri, Sep 04	52.02	2A	Fitzgerald	89.6%	28 - 8	20	Irwin County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	51.96	5A	Perry	85.7%	30 - 14	16	Howard	4A
Fri, Sep 04	51.75	5A	Statesboro	91.0%	30 - 10	20	Emanuel County Institute	1A
Thu, Sep 03	51.32	3A	Carver (Atlanta)	80.1%	24 - 13	11	Grovetown	6A
Fri, Sep 04	50.76	5A	Dalton	90.5%	34 - 14	20	Heritage (Ringgold)	4A
Fri, Sep 04	50.58	2A	Berrien	59.6%	27 - 22	5	Charlton County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	50.36	4A	Long County	66.9%	24 - 19	5	Screven County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	50.36	5A	Winder-Barrow	60.4%	24 - 21	3	Upson-Lee	4A
Fri, Sep 04	50.16	2A	Fannin County	55.4%	24 - 22	2	Pickens	4A
Fri, Sep 04	49.98	4A	Bainbridge	74.5%	24 - 14	10	Shaw	4A
Fri, Sep 04	49.14	4A	Northwest Whitfield	77.0%	28 - 17	11	Sonoraville	3A
Fri, Sep 04	49.03	7A	Rockdale County	60.9%	25 - 21	4	Lithia Springs	5A
Fri, Sep 04	48.99	1A	Manchester	64.2%	21 - 17	4	Taylor County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	48.65	5A	East Forsyth	86.2%	28 - 12	16	Pope	6A
Fri, Sep 04	48.41	Private	Christian Heritage	66.7%	26 - 20	6	Pepperell	2A
Thu, Sep 03	48.10	5A	Eastside	90.3%	28 - 7	21	Arabia Mountain	5A
Fri, Sep 04	47.81	4A	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	52.4%	20 - 20	0	McDonough	4A
Fri, Sep 04	47.75	2A	Jeff Davis	90.0%	28 - 7	21	Metter	2A
Fri, Sep 04	47.64	3A	Hart County	95.7%	34 - 6	28	Cedar Shoals	6A
Fri, Sep 04	47.29	Private	Eagle's Landing Christian	60.0%	22 - 20	2	Eagle's Landing	5A
Fri, Sep 04	46.69	3A	Miller Grove	72.5%	25 - 17	8	Haralson County	3A
Fri, Sep 04	46.32	3A	Ringgold	81.7%	28 - 14	14	Gordon Lee	2A
Fri, Sep 04	45.94	6A	South Effingham	73.9%	24 - 14	10	Windsor Forest	4A
Fri, Sep 04	45.86	1A	Clinch County	78.1%	27 - 15	12	Miller County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	45.30	GIAA 4A	Stratford Academy	81.6%	28 - 16	12	Brookstone	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 04	44.18	5A	Chattahoochee	50.7%	22 - 22	0	Forsyth Central	7A
Fri, Sep 04	44.17	2A	Bacon County	54.8%	21 - 20	1	Vidalia	2A
Thu, Sep 03	44.01	5A	M.L. King	81.1%	28 - 14	14	Drew	5A
Fri, Sep 04	43.88	7A	Kennesaw Mountain	86.2%	31 - 14	17	South Cobb	6A
Fri, Sep 04	43.61	5A	Woodland (Cartersville)	72.3%	27 - 18	9	North Springs	4A
Fri, Sep 04	43.39	3A	Thomson	92.3%	34 - 13	21	Warren County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	43.21	3A	Stephens County	85.3%	28 - 14	14	Union County	3A
Fri, Sep 04	43.15	3A	Therrell	56.2%	21 - 20	1	Tri-Cities	6A
Fri, Sep 04	42.56	GIAA 3A	Westfield School	71.3%	27 - 20	7	Southwest Georgia Academy	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 04	42.22	1A	Schley County	58.8%	23 - 21	2	Hawkinsville	1A
Fri, Sep 04	42.15	2A	Social Circle	75.0%	27 - 17	10	Greene County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	42.02	3A	Washington County	66.5%	24 - 19	5	East Laurens	2A
Fri, Sep 04	42.00	GIAA 4A	First Presbyterian	80.8%	24 - 12	12	George Walton Academy	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 04	42.00	3A	Jackson	65.3%	24 - 20	4	Union Grove	5A
Fri, Sep 04	41.83	GIAA 2A	Valwood School	83.0%	28 - 14	14	Frederica Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	41.70	1A	Washington-Wilkes	62.4%	24 - 20	4	Oglethorpe County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	41.08	6A	Lassiter	94.0%	33 - 7	26	Apalachee	6A
Fri, Sep 04	41.04	2A	ACE Charter	82.5%	28 - 14	14	Southwest	3A
Fri, Sep 04	40.81	4A	East Jackson	72.8%	23 - 14	9	Banks County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	40.58	1A	Mitchell County	79.7%	29 - 19	10	Randolph-Clay	1A
Fri, Sep 04	39.87	5A	Druid Hills	56.9%	21 - 20	1	Landmark Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 04	38.48	Private	Athens Academy	90.4%	28 - 8	20	Savannah Country Day	GIAA 4A
Fri, Sep 04	38.11	Private	North Cobb Christian	92.7%	31 - 7	24	Mount Paran Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 04	37.18	6A	Mountain View	91.0%	34 - 14	20	Johns Creek	6A
Fri, Sep 04	36.92	1A	Treutlen	58.3%	22 - 21	1	Tattnall County	3A
Fri, Sep 04	36.85	GIAA 4A	Strong Rock Christian	74.0%	25 - 15	10	Lakeview Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	36.82	2A	Bremen	96.8%	35 - 6	29	Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe	2A
Fri, Sep 04	36.73	4A	Westover	95.7%	34 - 6	28	Columbus	4A
Fri, Sep 04	36.52	6A	Lakeside (Atlanta)	56.4%	22 - 21	1	Midtown	6A
Fri, Sep 04	35.74	1A	Jenkins County	71.0%	27 - 20	7	Portal	1A
Fri, Sep 04	35.17	4A	Luella	90.3%	28 - 7	21	Riverdale	4A
Fri, Sep 04	34.91	6A	Meadowcreek	58.8%	21 - 17	4	Alcovy	6A
Fri, Sep 04	34.69	2A	Model	90.5%	29 - 10	19	Chattooga	2A
Fri, Sep 04	34.26	1A	Telfair County	75.8%	28 - 20	8	Atkinson County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	34.08	4A	Liberty County	86.8%	28 - 13	15	Johnson (Savannah)	3A
Fri, Sep 04	33.76	3A	Temple	87.6%	29 - 14	15	Dade County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	33.67	1A	Trion	86.8%	28 - 12	16	Ridgeland	4A
Fri, Sep 04	33.15	3A	South Atlanta	78.5%	21 - 7	14	Washington	2A
Fri, Sep 04	32.91	4A	Woodland (Stockbridge)	90.4%	29 - 9	20	Fayette County	4A
Fri, Sep 04	32.65	GIAA 3A	Tiftarea Academy	70.4%	28 - 20	8	Turner County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	32.15	1A	Wilkinson County	52.6%	24 - 22	2	Jefferson County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	31.44	6A	Loganville	93.6%	33 - 7	26	Discovery	7A
Fri, Sep 04	29.91	1A	Pelham	53.1%	20 - 19	1	Chattahoochee County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	29.39	1A	Montgomery County	88.5%	28 - 13	15	Lanier County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	29.22	1A	McIntosh County Academy	80.4%	24 - 12	12	Georgia Military Prep	1A
Fri, Sep 04	28.83	GIAA 2A	Briarwood Academy	81.8%	28 - 16	12	Glascock County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	28.46	4A	Chestatee	72.3%	27 - 19	8	West Hall	4A
Fri, Sep 04	27.69	3A	Islands	62.1%	21 - 17	4	Bryan County	2A
Fri, Sep 04	26.11	GIAA 2A	Southland Academy	52.5%	21 - 20	1	Marion County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	25.88	GIAA 4A	Tattnall Square	83.7%	24 - 7	17	Athens Christian	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	25.44	7A	Berkmar	66.3%	21 - 15	6	Northview	5A
Fri, Sep 04	25.14	3A	Coahulla Creek	92.1%	33 - 12	21	Southeast Whitfield	4A
Fri, Sep 04	24.21	1A	Baconton Charter	58.0%	20 - 16	4	Brookwood School	GIAA 2A
Thu, Sep 03	23.80	Private	Providence Christian	88.8%	28 - 12	16	B.E.S.T. Academy	1A
Fri, Sep 04	23.27	1A	Calhoun County	81.3%	28 - 17	11	Kendrick	3A
Fri, Sep 04	22.93	2A	Coosa	56.6%	21 - 20	1	Gordon Central	2A
Fri, Sep 04	22.89	3A	Brantley County	85.5%	23 - 6	17	Claxton	1A
Fri, Sep 04	21.72	GIAA 1A	Flint River Academy	75.8%	26 - 14	12	Rock Springs Christian	GAPPS
Fri, Sep 04	20.45	GIAA 2A	Sherwood Christian	82.1%	27 - 14	13	Trinity Christian (Dublin)	GIAA 2A
Fri, Sep 04	19.66	2A	Utopian Academy	72.9%	24 - 14	10	Mt. Bethel Christian	Private
Fri, Sep 04	18.65	5A	Mundy's Mill	93.2%	29 - 6	23	Forest Park	5A
Fri, Sep 04	17.45	GIAA 4A	Bethlehem Christian	82.4%	28 - 14	14	Towns County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	17.25	3A	Beach	94.8%	35 - 13	22	Groves	5A
Fri, Sep 04	16.20	4A	Salem	83.9%	28 - 14	14	Stone Mountain	4A
Fri, Sep 04	15.85	4A	Cairo	99.9%	44 - 0	44	Hardaway	4A
Fri, Sep 04	15.20	GIAA 2A	Brentwood School	97.4%	36 - 6	30	Robert Toombs Academy	GIAA 1A
Fri, Sep 04	14.94	2A	Glenn Hills	74.0%	24 - 14	10	Cross Creek	3A
Fri, Sep 04	14.25	3A	Appling County	99.9%	41 - 0	41	Savannah	2A
Fri, Sep 04	13.21	GIAA 2A	Trinity Christian (Dublin)	70.9%	28 - 21	7	Augusta Prep	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	12.75	Private	Walker	82.4%	31 - 19	12	Clarkston	4A
Fri, Sep 04	12.35	GIAA 2A	Edmund Burke Academy	97.0%	30 - 0	30	Westminster (Augusta)	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	10.38	1A	Lake Oconee Academy	97.4%	36 - 6	30	Crawford County	1A
Thu, Sep 03	10.21	GIAA 1A	Thomas Jefferson	83.1%	23 - 7	16	Riverside Prep	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	9.88	2A	Josey	62.0%	21 - 17	4	Butler	3A
Fri, Sep 04	8.80	GIAA 4A	Calvary Christian	96.0%	34 - 0	34	Pataula Charter	1A
Thu, Sep 03	8.28	3A	McNair	97.2%	35 - 0	35	Towers	3A
Fri, Sep 04	8.17	GIAA 3A	Central Fellowship Christian	55.6%	24 - 21	3	Creekside Christian	GAPPS
Fri, Sep 04	5.87	GIAA 4A	Mount de Sales	96.4%	30 - 0	30	Twiggs County	1A
Fri, Sep 04	5.24	GAPPS	Cherokee Christian	85.1%	28 - 14	14	Dominion Christian	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	0.23	1A	Terrell County	84.1%	28 - 14	14	Jordan	3A
Fri, Sep 04	-1.20	4A	East Hall	99.3%	42 - 0	42	Johnson (Gainesville)	5A
Fri, Sep 04	-9.90	GAPPS	King's Academy	96.7%	42 - 16	26	Heritage (Newnan)	GIAA 3A
Fri, Sep 04	-11.72	GIAA 3A	Terrell Academy	99.3%	43 - 0	43	Southwest Georgia STEM	1A
Fri, Sep 04	-18.40	1A	Scintilla Charter Academy	88.4%	22 - 0	22	Central (Talbotton)	1A
Fri, Sep 04	-37.33	GIAA 4A	Loganville Christian	99.8%	41 - 0	41	Cross Keys	5A

Alerts

Maxwell projections: Can Grayson bounce back against Hughes?