Maxwell GHSA football projections: Roswell, Sandy Creek favored in Week 2

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

		Favorite		Projection			Underdog
Date	Game Rating	Class	Team	Pct	Median Scores	Median Margin	Team	Class
Fri, Aug 28	90.67	6A	Roswell	66.0%	28 - 23	5	Newton	7A
Fri, Aug 28	86.03	4A	Sandy Creek	61.8%	22 - 19	3	Douglas County	7A
Fri, Aug 28	83.98	6A	Milton	77.3%	27 - 15	12	Blessed Trinity	5A
Fri, Aug 28	82.07	7A	North Cobb	66.5%	24 - 19	5	Hillgrove	7A
Fri, Aug 28	80.35	7A	Brookwood	75.3%	28 - 20	8	Mill Creek	7A
Fri, Aug 28	80.11	Private	Hebron Christian	55.3%	24 - 22	2	Benedictine	5A
Fri, Aug 28	79.78	7A	North Gwinnett	91.4%	32 - 13	19	Collins Hill	7A
Fri, Aug 28	78.58	7A	Norcross	77.5%	27 - 15	12	West Forsyth	7A
Fri, Aug 28	78.55	7A	Harrison	57.5%	24 - 21	3	East Paulding	6A
Fri, Aug 28	77.91	6A	Coffee	68.8%	27 - 20	7	Ware County	5A
Fri, Aug 28	77.62	5A	LaGrange	58.4%	23 - 21	2	Troup	4A
Fri, Aug 28	74.99	5A	Sprayberry	60.1%	25 - 21	4	Cass	5A
Fri, Aug 28	73.65	5A	North Oconee	87.2%	31 - 14	17	Stockbridge	5A
Fri, Aug 28	72.56	6A	Sequoyah	86.3%	31 - 16	15	Lambert	7A
Fri, Aug 28	71.35	6A	Jackson County	56.7%	22 - 21	1	Dacula	7A
Fri, Aug 28	71.14	Private	Calvary Day	79.7%	28 - 18	10	Jenkins	5A
Fri, Aug 28	71.04	4A	Cairo	63.7%	27 - 21	6	Worth County	3A
Fri, Aug 28	70.58	7A	East Coweta	77.7%	29 - 20	9	Newnan	6A
Fri, Aug 28	70.46	5A	Warner Robins	70.5%	26 - 19	7	Northeast	3A
Fri, Aug 28	70.11	5A	Eastside	69.3%	28 - 21	7	Morgan County	3A
Fri, Aug 28	70.01	7A	South Gwinnett	78.9%	27 - 14	13	Parkview	7A
Fri, Aug 28	69.91	4A	Peach County	76.2%	30 - 21	9	Jones County	5A
Fri, Aug 28	69.26	7A	Archer	80.2%	28 - 17	11	North Forsyth	7A
Fri, Aug 28	68.79	6A	Tift County	55.0%	26 - 24	2	Effingham County	6A
Fri, Aug 28	68.04	5A	Perry	55.1%	22 - 21	1	Dublin	2A
Fri, Aug 28	67.87	6A	Clarke Central	50.8%	21 - 21	0	Oconee County	4A
Fri, Aug 28	67.82	6A	Rome	92.4%	34 - 14	20	Tucker	5A
Fri, Aug 28	67.04	4A	Calhoun	86.8%	30 - 14	16	Greater Atlanta Christian	Private
Fri, Aug 28	66.69	3A	Burke County	66.8%	27 - 21	6	Statesboro	5A
Fri, Aug 28	66.16	3A	Carver (Atlanta)	66.3%	24 - 20	4	Southwest DeKalb	5A
Fri, Aug 28	66.10	5A	Mays	63.1%	20 - 14	6	Northside (Warner Robins)	6A
Fri, Aug 28	65.76	5A	Central (Carrollton)	74.0%	28 - 20	8	Jonesboro	5A
Fri, Aug 28	65.31	7A	Peachtree Ridge	87.6%	28 - 14	14	Shiloh	6A
Fri, Aug 28	65.03	3A	Callaway	52.2%	23 - 22	1	Bowdon	1A
Fri, Aug 28	64.35	7A	Camden County	92.5%	34 - 13	21	Glynn Academy	6A
Fri, Aug 28	64.32	3A	Pierce County	68.5%	22 - 16	6	Brooks County	2A
Fri, Aug 28	63.99	6A	Hiram	50.4%	24 - 24	0	Villa Rica	5A
Fri, Aug 28	63.41	Private	Holy Innocents	53.5%	24 - 22	2	Athens Academy	Private
Fri, Aug 28	63.27	6A	River Ridge	71.6%	27 - 19	8	Etowah	7A
Fri, Aug 28	62.84	6A	New Manchester	57.8%	21 - 18	3	Northgate	7A
Fri, Aug 28	62.68	7A	Westlake	94.0%	35 - 12	23	Wheeler	7A
Fri, Aug 28	62.36	7A	Lowndes	96.6%	34 - 2	32	Harris County	5A
Fri, Aug 28	62.28	5A	Whitewater	70.1%	27 - 20	7	McIntosh	6A
Fri, Aug 28	62.05	3A	Rockmart	64.3%	25 - 20	5	Cedartown	5A
Fri, Aug 28	61.69	1A	Lincoln County	63.6%	23 - 20	3	Westside (Augusta)	3A
Fri, Aug 28	61.57	2A	Thomasville	75.2%	28 - 19	9	Bainbridge	4A
Fri, Aug 28	61.56	5A	Flowery Branch	54.3%	23 - 21	2	Cherokee Bluff	4A
Fri, Aug 28	61.39	5A	Ola	72.1%	27 - 18	9	Cedar Grove	3A
Fri, Aug 28	61.28	2A	Bleckley County	68.4%	27 - 20	7	Cook	2A
Fri, Aug 28	60.82	4A	Douglass	86.6%	27 - 10	17	Hampton	4A
Thu, Aug 27	60.72	3A	Appling County	79.1%	28 - 18	10	New Hampstead	4A
Fri, Aug 28	60.54	3A	Hart County	63.2%	24 - 20	4	Madison County	5A
Fri, Aug 28	60.52	5A	Dalton	50.2%	25 - 25	0	Northwest Whitfield	4A
Fri, Aug 28	60.49	Private	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	66.7%	27 - 20	7	Veterans	6A
Fri, Aug 28	59.90	5A	Cambridge	85.7%	29 - 14	15	Woodstock	6A
Fri, Aug 28	59.88	4A	Stephenson	89.8%	30 - 13	17	Decatur	6A
Fri, Aug 28	59.71	6A	Lanier	76.0%	28 - 19	9	Duluth	7A
Fri, Aug 28	59.56	7A	Carrollton	99.9%	47 - 0	47	Columbia	3A
Fri, Aug 28	59.50	7A	North Paulding	83.1%	30 - 17	13	South Paulding	6A
Fri, Aug 28	59.36	1A	Clinch County	55.6%	21 - 20	1	Jeff Davis	2A
Fri, Aug 28	59.15	3A	Elbert County	55.7%	21 - 21	0	Wesleyan	Private
Fri, Aug 28	59.10	7A	Walton	95.5%	36 - 13	23	North Clayton	4A
Fri, Aug 28	58.63	5A	Griffin	58.0%	22 - 21	1	Maynard Jackson	5A
Fri, Aug 28	58.44	7A	Denmark	82.5%	27 - 14	13	Alpharetta	6A
Fri, Aug 28	58.29	5A	Dutchtown	80.5%	28 - 14	14	Locust Grove	5A
Fri, Aug 28	58.06	6A	Lassiter	54.2%	24 - 21	3	Allatoona	5A
Fri, Aug 28	57.96	3A	Thomson	83.5%	28 - 14	14	Richmond Academy	5A
Fri, Aug 28	57.80	3A	Stephens County	63.6%	26 - 21	5	Habersham Central	6A
Fri, Aug 28	57.77	3A	Lamar County	72.1%	22 - 14	8	Dodge County	2A
Fri, Aug 28	56.68	7A	Cherokee	53.6%	26 - 24	2	South Forsyth	7A
Fri, Aug 28	56.56	7A	Colquitt County	98.3%	37 - 0	37	Monroe	4A
Fri, Aug 28	56.45	7A	Paulding County	61.6%	24 - 21	3	Alexander	6A
Fri, Aug 28	56.17	4A	North Hall	79.2%	30 - 20	10	Winder-Barrow	5A
Fri, Aug 28	56.14	6A	Kell	93.0%	31 - 7	24	Luella	4A
Fri, Aug 28	55.95	4A	Harlem	67.7%	23 - 17	6	Grovetown	6A
Thu, Aug 27	55.90	2A	Swainsboro	68.6%	26 - 20	6	Emanuel County Institute	1A
Fri, Aug 28	55.81	3A	Lumpkin County	66.8%	27 - 21	6	Pickens	4A
Fri, Aug 28	55.78	5A	Wayne County	53.7%	24 - 22	2	Bradwell Institute	6A
Fri, Aug 28	55.77	5A	Starr's Mill	69.2%	27 - 20	7	Northside (Columbus)	6A
Fri, Aug 28	55.64	5A	East Forsyth	70.8%	24 - 16	8	Dawson County	4A
Fri, Aug 28	55.44	7A	Central Gwinnett	64.9%	21 - 17	4	Pebblebrook	7A
Fri, Aug 28	55.40	3A	Ringgold	60.9%	22 - 20	2	Heritage (Ringgold)	4A
Fri, Aug 28	55.26	4A	Gilmer	66.1%	27 - 21	6	Fannin County	2A
Fri, Aug 28	54.84	3A	Carver (Columbus)	92.8%	31 - 7	24	Spencer	4A
Fri, Aug 28	54.62	3A	Sumter County	81.0%	28 - 16	12	Dougherty	4A
Fri, Aug 28	54.18	Private	Whitefield Academy	78.9%	28 - 18	10	Mount Vernon	Private
Fri, Aug 28	54.12	Private	North Cobb Christian	53.3%	24 - 22	2	Pepperell	2A
Fri, Aug 28	53.80	3A	Miller Grove	59.4%	21 - 20	1	M.L. King	5A
Fri, Aug 28	53.37	4A	Mary Persons	85.4%	28 - 14	14	Jasper County	2A
Fri, Aug 28	53.24	5A	Evans	76.3%	27 - 16	11	Greenbrier	6A
Fri, Aug 28	53.21	2A	Commerce	60.0%	25 - 21	4	East Jackson	4A
Fri, Aug 28	53.20	4A	Baldwin	79.4%	28 - 18	10	Hephzibah	3A
Fri, Aug 28	52.82	6A	Woodward Academy	97.2%	34 - 0	34	Chapel Hill	6A
Fri, Aug 28	52.19	4A	Adairsville	65.9%	25 - 20	5	Woodland (Cartersville)	5A
Fri, Aug 28	52.03	7A	Richmond Hill	96.5%	32 - 0	32	Liberty County	4A
Fri, Aug 28	51.81	7A	Rockdale County	64.7%	27 - 21	6	Heritage (Conyers)	6A
Fri, Aug 28	51.34	2A	Bremen	75.8%	25 - 14	11	Haralson County	3A
Fri, Aug 28	51.06	5A	Eagle's Landing	64.5%	24 - 20	4	Banneker	5A
Fri, Aug 28	51.00	1A	Early County	69.3%	26 - 20	6	Berrien	2A
Fri, Aug 28	50.75	5A	Cartersville	99.2%	41 - 0	41	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4A
Fri, Aug 28	50.71	GIAA 4A	First Presbyterian	51.2%	21 - 21	0	Westfield School	GIAA 3A
Fri, Aug 28	50.65	7A	Valdosta	99.3%	42 - 0	42	Howard	4A
Fri, Aug 28	50.58	Private	Lovett	87.2%	26 - 7	19	Pace Academy	Private
Fri, Aug 28	50.29	1A	Manchester	59.9%	24 - 21	3	Schley County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	50.28	4A	Monroe Area	93.2%	30 - 7	23	Loganville	6A
Fri, Aug 28	50.26	2A	Rabun County	84.2%	28 - 14	14	Metter	2A
Fri, Aug 28	50.21	3A	Washington County	56.2%	24 - 21	3	ACE Charter	2A
Fri, Aug 28	50.07	3A	Jackson	57.7%	21 - 20	1	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4A
Fri, Aug 28	49.81	7A	Forsyth Central	52.5%	23 - 22	1	Pope	6A
Fri, Aug 28	49.40	5A	Arabia Mountain	53.7%	22 - 21	1	Chamblee	6A
Fri, Aug 28	48.65	1A	Johnson County	71.0%	23 - 15	8	Warren County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	48.20	Private	Aquinas	82.5%	28 - 16	12	Washington-Wilkes	1A
Fri, Aug 28	47.54	3A	Franklin County	74.9%	28 - 20	8	East Hall	4A
Fri, Aug 28	47.24	1A	Wilcox County	58.2%	22 - 21	1	Macon County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	47.07	4A	White County	78.4%	27 - 15	12	Union County	3A
Fri, Aug 28	46.80	2A	Screven County	54.7%	21 - 21	0	Jenkins County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	46.37	1A	Mitchell County	56.2%	23 - 21	2	Hawkinsville	1A
Fri, Aug 28	45.98	1A	Charlton County	62.9%	24 - 20	4	McIntosh County Academy	1A
Fri, Aug 28	45.84	4A	McDonough	63.2%	22 - 18	4	Union Grove	5A
Fri, Aug 28	45.59	7A	Seckinger	88.5%	28 - 12	16	Cedar Shoals	6A
Fri, Aug 28	45.39	GIAA 3A	Frederica Academy	65.6%	21 - 17	4	Deerfield-Windsor	GIAA 3A
Fri, Aug 28	45.28	3A	Toombs County	99.1%	40 - 0	40	Vidalia	2A
Thu, Aug 27	44.99	4A	Upson-Lee	88.2%	28 - 10	18	Shaw	4A
Fri, Aug 28	44.93	GIAA 4A	Bulloch Academy	73.7%	27 - 19	8	Tattnall Square	GIAA 4A
Fri, Aug 28	44.79	Private	Christian Heritage	78.0%	28 - 17	11	Landmark Christian	Private
Fri, Aug 28	44.47	Private	Westminster (Atlanta)	86.3%	28 - 13	15	King's Ridge Christian	Private
Fri, Aug 28	44.42	6A	Meadowcreek	60.1%	22 - 20	2	Morrow	6A
Fri, Aug 28	44.28	Private	Darlington	56.8%	24 - 21	3	Mount Paran Christian	Private
Fri, Aug 28	44.16	1A	Trion	81.6%	28 - 14	14	Model	2A
Fri, Aug 28	43.70	1A	Irwin County	82.8%	28 - 14	14	Bacon County	2A
Fri, Aug 28	43.66	4A	Spalding	93.5%	30 - 7	23	Lakeside (Atlanta)	6A
Fri, Aug 28	43.54	1A	Taylor County	50.2%	21 - 21	0	Mount Zion (Carrollton)	2A
Fri, Aug 28	43.01	5A	Marist	99.8%	42 - 0	42	Druid Hills	5A
Fri, Aug 28	42.98	4A	Southeast Bulloch	84.8%	28 - 14	14	East Laurens	2A
Fri, Aug 28	42.92	2A	Social Circle	80.7%	28 - 17	11	Providence Christian	Private
Fri, Aug 28	42.89	2A	Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe	61.9%	25 - 21	4	Coahulla Creek	3A
Fri, Aug 28	42.34	4A	Windsor Forest	53.1%	21 - 21	0	Tattnall County	3A
Fri, Aug 28	42.28	7A	Kennesaw Mountain	90.8%	31 - 13	18	Osborne	6A
Fri, Aug 28	42.19	6A	Walnut Grove	81.3%	27 - 14	13	Alcovy	6A
Fri, Aug 28	42.06	6A	Creekview	97.8%	35 - 0	35	North Springs	4A
Fri, Aug 28	40.92	4A	Westside (Macon)	83.6%	28 - 14	14	Rutland	3A
Fri, Aug 28	40.78	6A	Dunwoody	87.3%	28 - 12	16	Riverwood	6A
Fri, Aug 28	40.58	4A	Westover	94.4%	33 - 7	26	Seminole County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	40.49	3A	LaFayette	65.8%	23 - 19	4	Dade County	2A
Fri, Aug 28	39.93	1A	Miller County	55.4%	24 - 22	2	Atkinson County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	39.85	1A	Wheeler County	83.6%	30 - 17	13	Montgomery County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	39.65	6A	Lovejoy	97.8%	35 - 0	35	Mundy's Mill	5A
Fri, Aug 28	39.26	6A	South Cobb	53.9%	21 - 20	1	Berkmar	7A
Fri, Aug 28	39.01	1A	Randolph-Clay	53.8%	24 - 22	2	Turner County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	38.42	5A	St. Pius X	94.0%	32 - 7	25	McNair	3A
Thu, Aug 27	38.40	7A	North Atlanta	98.4%	36 - 0	36	Midtown	6A
Fri, Aug 28	38.27	6A	South Effingham	87.9%	28 - 13	15	Johnson (Savannah)	3A
Fri, Aug 28	37.61	5A	Centennial	95.1%	34 - 7	27	Johns Creek	6A
Fri, Aug 28	37.25	2A	Banks County	51.3%	21 - 21	0	West Hall	4A
Fri, Aug 28	36.94	1A	Greene County	73.7%	28 - 20	8	Wilkinson County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	36.93	2A	Bryan County	50.5%	21 - 21	0	Portal	1A
Fri, Aug 28	36.86	3A	Brantley County	70.8%	23 - 16	7	Lanier County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	36.84	3A	Pike County	61.1%	24 - 20	4	Fayette County	4A
Fri, Aug 28	36.54	2A	Gordon Lee	88.2%	28 - 12	16	Ridgeland	4A
Thu, Aug 27	35.96	3A	Therrell	76.3%	21 - 11	10	Washington	2A
Fri, Aug 28	35.83	Private	Eagle's Landing Christian	88.9%	28 - 10	18	Bethlehem Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Aug 28	35.67	6A	Apalachee	73.2%	24 - 15	9	Discovery	7A
Fri, Aug 28	34.33	3A	Crisp County	96.9%	34 - 0	34	Dooly County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	34.10	GIAA 4A	Calvary Christian	55.3%	22 - 21	1	Flint River Academy	GIAA 1A
Fri, Aug 28	32.99	4A	Chestatee	81.7%	28 - 17	11	Lakeview Academy	GIAA 3A
Fri, Aug 28	32.65	2A	Putnam County	92.9%	34 - 12	22	Hancock Central	1A
Fri, Aug 28	31.87	GIAA 4A	Savannah Country Day	87.5%	29 - 14	15	Pinewood Christian	GIAA 2A
Fri, Aug 28	31.62	4A	Columbus	75.3%	27 - 16	11	Marion County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	30.58	5A	Drew	81.0%	28 - 14	14	Northview	5A
Fri, Aug 28	30.39	3A	South Atlanta	88.4%	30 - 14	16	Salem	4A
Fri, Aug 28	30.03	GIAA 4A	Strong Rock Christian	90.9%	28 - 7	21	Athens Christian	GIAA 3A
Fri, Aug 28	30.01	3A	Murray County	60.4%	23 - 20	3	Southeast Whitfield	4A
Fri, Aug 28	29.91	GIAA 2A	Southwest Georgia Academy	84.7%	28 - 14	14	Calhoun County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	29.82	GIAA 2A	Pinewood Christian	56.9%	24 - 21	3	Mount de Sales	GIAA 4A
Fri, Aug 28	28.83	4A	Riverdale	69.0%	21 - 14	7	Forest Park	5A
Fri, Aug 28	27.54	GIAA 2A	Edmund Burke Academy	84.7%	27 - 12	15	Trinity Christian (Dublin)	GIAA 2A
Fri, Aug 28	27.11	2A	Jefferson County	73.5%	24 - 14	10	Cross Creek	3A
Fri, Aug 28	26.42	1A	Lake Oconee Academy	82.2%	27 - 14	13	Greenville	1A
Fri, Aug 28	26.29	1A	Baconton Charter	57.7%	22 - 21	1	Pelham	1A
Fri, Aug 28	26.23	GIAA 2A	Brentwood School	94.2%	34 - 9	25	Gatewood School	GIAA 2A
Fri, Aug 28	24.83	GIAA 2A	Briarwood Academy	89.4%	31 - 14	17	Loganville Christian	GIAA 4A
Fri, Aug 28	23.94	1A	Crawford County	54.6%	24 - 21	3	Georgia Military Prep	1A
Fri, Aug 28	22.68	3A	Islands	82.0%	23 - 8	15	Savannah	2A
Thu, Aug 27	21.44	3A	Redan	90.6%	30 - 12	18	Stone Mountain	4A
Fri, Aug 28	21.41	GIAA 3A	John Milledge Academy	99.2%	40 - 0	40	Piedmont Academy	GIAA 2A
Fri, Aug 28	21.05	GIAA 1A	Windsor Academy	77.0%	27 - 14	13	Augusta Prep	GIAA 3A
Fri, Aug 28	19.62	1A	Greenville	66.2%	24 - 19	5	Terrell County	1A
Fri, Aug 28	19.60	1A	Glascock County	75.2%	27 - 16	11	Butler	3A
Fri, Aug 28	19.44	4A	Hardaway	72.5%	23 - 14	9	Kendrick	3A
Fri, Aug 28	18.31	6A	Brunswick	99.9%	49 - 0	49	Groves	5A
Fri, Aug 28	16.44	1A	Towns County	82.4%	27 - 14	13	Rock Springs Christian	GAPPS
Thu, Aug 27	15.36	3A	Towers	88.8%	27 - 7	20	B.E.S.T. Academy	1A
Fri, Aug 28	15.03	Private	Mount Pisgah Christian	84.6%	26 - 10	16	Creekside Christian	GAPPS
Fri, Aug 28	14.34	GIAA 3A	Terrell Academy	89.7%	30 - 13	17	Pataula Charter	1A
Fri, Aug 28	14.00	GIAA 2A	Southland Academy	89.3%	29 - 13	16	Central Fellowship Christian	GIAA 3A
Fri, Aug 28	12.39	2A	Armuchee	85.8%	28 - 14	14	Walker	Private
Fri, Aug 28	11.90	2A	Heard County	99.9%	47 - 0	47	Clarkston	4A
Fri, Aug 28	11.62	GIAA 3A	Riverside Prep	62.4%	30 - 27	3	Johnson (Gainesville)	5A
Fri, Aug 28	7.58	GIAA 3A	Tiftarea Academy	98.4%	37 - 0	37	Dominion Christian	GIAA 3A
Fri, Aug 28	4.63	3A	Central (Macon)	97.5%	35 - 0	35	Jordan	3A
Fri, Aug 28	1.92	1A	Twiggs County	77.3%	26 - 14	12	Central (Talbotton)	1A
Fri, Aug 28	-15.83	GIAA 2A	Brookwood School	99.5%	46 - 0	46	Southwest Georgia STEM	1A
Fri, Aug 28	-15.94	GIAA 3A	Heritage (Newnan)	87.6%	26 - 7	19	Cross Keys	5A

Alerts

Maxwell projections: Sandy Creek, Roswell favored in games vs. higher classes