Maxwell projections: Grayson favored over North Gwinnett on opening day
These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.
| Favorite | Projection | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Game Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 95.00 | Class AAAAAAA | Grayson | 72.0% | 27 - 17 | 10 | North Gwinnett | Class AAAAAAA |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 85.92 | Class AAAAAA | Roswell | 72.8% | 30 - 21 | 9 | Walton | Class AAAAAAA |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 77.89 | Class AAAAAAA | Brookwood | 63.2% | 28 - 22 | 6 | Cambridge | Class AAAAA |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 71.06 | Class AAAAAAA | South Gwinnett | 63.7% | 22 - 18 | 4 | Lanier | Class AAAAAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 52.40 | GIAA Class AAA | John Milledge Academy | 68.0% | 28 - 21 | 7 | Brentwood School | GIAA Class AA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 50.11 | GIAA Class AA | Valwood School | 50.5% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Deerfield-Windsor | GIAA Class AAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 49.41 | GIAA Class AAAA | Brookstone | 61.8% | 22 - 20 | 2 | Westfield School | GIAA Class AAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 47.93 | GIAA Class AAAA | First Presbyterian | 74.0% | 26 - 15 | 11 | St. Anne-Pacelli | GIAA Class AAAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 43.15 | GIAA Class AAAA | Savannah Country Day | 78.0% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Strong Rock Christian | GIAA Class AAAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 38.06 | GIAA Class AAAA | Bulloch Academy | 84.2% | 30 - 15 | 15 | Pinewood Christian | GIAA Class AA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 33.89 | GIAA Class AA | Southwest Georgia Academy | 74.2% | 26 - 16 | 10 | Terrell Academy | GIAA Class AAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 32.29 | GIAA Class AAAA | Bethlehem Christian | 76.1% | 26 - 14 | 12 | Calvary Christian | GIAA Class AAAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 31.66 | GIAA Class AAAA | Tattnall Square | 72.5% | 24 - 14 | 10 | Gatewood School | GIAA Class AA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 31.17 | GIAA Class A | Robert Toombs Academy | 62.4% | 24 - 20 | 4 | Flint River Academy | GIAA Class A |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 29.77 | GIAA Class AA | Edmund Burke Academy | 73.4% | 22 - 14 | 8 | Piedmont Academy | GIAA Class AA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 27.18 | GIAA Class AA | Briarwood Academy | 76.0% | 27 - 17 | 10 | Trinity Christian (Dublin) | GIAA Class AA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 25.34 | GIAA Class AAAA | Mount de Sales | 56.9% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Central Fellowship Christian | GIAA Class AAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 21.24 | GIAA Class AAAA | Stratford Academy | 97.7% | 38 - 0 | 38 | Windsor Academy | GIAA Class A |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 19.79 | GIAA Class AAA | Westminster (Augusta) | 75.2% | 24 - 14 | 10 | Thomas Jefferson | GIAA Class A |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 15.72 | GIAA Class AAA | Athens Christian | 77.9% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Augusta Prep | GIAA Class AAA |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 12.42 | GIAA Class AAA | Riverside Prep | 53.2% | 24 - 23 | 1 | Heritage (Newnan) | GIAA Class AAA |