Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson has made just 219 plate appearances in the major leagues. That’s too few to draw any real conclusions about his effectiveness as a hitter.
Yet Swanson’s high profile as one of baseball’s top prospects means his poor results so far this season, after good results in 2016, have drawn attention. The team’s offensive struggles, with Swanson hitting No. 2 in the order until recently, only heightened external scrutiny of the rookie.
Swanson’s coaches and teammates say his results are the only issue. They praise Swanson’s good attitude, his mental approach to hitting and his sound swing. They note that Swanson has experienced bad luck with balls he’s put into play.
Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer said those circumstances are among the reasons to believe Swanson’s production will improve once he stops pressing.
“He’s a young player,” Seitzer said. “He’s very talented. He knows he belongs here. We all know he belongs here. He doesn’t have the type of swing that is conducive to slumps.
“He’s just trying a little bit too hard right now, which is normal. Every hitter goes through this. They want to get off to a really good start and when they don’t you see them try to start trying a little bit too hard.”
Over 18 games (74 plate appearances) this season Swanson is hitting .139 (10-for-72) with a .162 on-base percentage and .194 slugging percentage. Over Swanson’s 38 games (145 PA) in 2016 those numbers were .302/361/.442.
Swanson needs to play a lot more games before those statistics become reliable measures of his performance. According to research by Russell A. Carleton at Baseball Prospectus, batting average stabilizes after 460 plate appearances, OBP after 460 and slugging percentage after 320.
In some ways, Swanson enjoyed a lot of good luck after his call-up in 2016 but very little of it this season. His batting average on balls in play this season is .173 after it was .383 in 2016 (.300 is about average).
That’s not because Swanson isn’t hitting the ball as hard. His average exit velocity on batted balls is 89.6 MPH this season after it was 88.2 in 2016, according to Statcast data. Swanson also is hitting line drives at about the same rate (28 percent this season vs. 30 percent in 2016).
Last season Swanson hit 11 balls with an exit velocity of 100 mph or more and nine went for hits, including a double and a home run. He’s already hit 15 balls that hard in 2017 and is 6-for-14 with a home run (he reached on an error once).
With so few at-bats this season, better fortune on well-hit balls would make a big difference for Swanson’s numbers.
“He’s had a lot of tough luck this year,” Seitzer said. “Every ball he hits hard it seems somebody is waiting on the other end of it. With hitters it’s just finding some grass once in a while. Getting a cheap one once in a while can be the one that gets you going a little bit.”
Seitzer said that Saturday afternoon. Later that night Swanson had more bad luck on a well-hit ball that could have changed his team’s fortunes in the 10-inning loss to the Phillies.
The Braves trailed 2-1 in the seventh with a runner on first when Swanson smashed reliever Luis Garcia’s fastball on a line to right-center field. The ball left his bat at 104.5 mph, according to Statcast, and traveled 358 feet. But center fielder Odubel Herrera made a running catch for the second out before crashing into the wall.
All season Swanson has insisted that such misfortune hasn’t affected his confidence. In the 10th inning of that Phillies game he sent another well-hit ball through the left side of the infield for a hit and scored the go-ahead run when Adonis Garcia single with two outs.
“I’m starting to feel better, feel a little more where I need to be, I guess” Swanson said afterwards. “I credit a lot of that to Freddie [Freeman] and Matt [Kemp], and Seitzer. They’ve been able to get me back to center. There are a lot of good resources around here and if you just use them the right way, they can help you out.”
