A look at the numbers behind Atlanta United’s offense

Atlanta United goalkeeper Brad Guzan summed up his team’s offense best after Saturday’s 1-0 win against Montreal:

“There were one or two decent chances in the first half. There were one or two more leading up to the goal. I wouldn’t call them great chances, but half chances for sure. We needed to stick with it and continue to push forward and believe that we would put the ball in the back of the net. It’s no secret that we want to score more goals, and hopefully that will come.”

One or two chances in the first half. One or two in the second.

Atlanta United’s offense can be described either as slumbering, which is good, or somniferous, which is not good.

The winner against Montreal was scored in the fourth minute of stoppage time. It came on the team’s second shot on goal.

“I don’t tell my players to win a game any way possible, as there are many different ways to win a game,” manager Gabriel Heinze said. “And I don’t think we won this game doing anything possible. I believe that the team attacked very well.”

The team has scored nine goals in nine games. It has scored more than one goal in only one game. In league play, it has scored six goals in five games.

The MLS goals:

A golazo by Ezequiel Barco.
An own goal.
A put-back by Emerson Hyndman.
A penalty kick by Marcelino Moreno.
A goal by Josef Martinez.
A header by Moreno.

The team has scored so few goals because it isn’t creating chances.

According to FBref.com, Atlanta United has made 48 key passes. Minnesota leads MLS with 77. Cincinnati is at the bottom with 27.

Being in the middle of the league in key passes results in the team being in the middle of the league in goal-creation attempts. The Five Stripes average 2.0 per 90 minutes. Seattle, Atlanta United’s opponent Sunday, leads with 3.17. Columbus is at the bottom with 0.40.

Oddly, the team is closer to the top of the league in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, at 22. From those actions, it is averaging 12.8 shots per 90. Minnesota leads with 17.5 shots per 90 from 26.33 shot-creating actions per 90.

From those 12.8 shots, Atlanta United is putting 3.8 on goal.

From those shots, its goals per shot is 0.06, tied for third-worst in the league.

Looking at the past few games, the offense is trending flat, instead of progression, which would be the expectation as the team continues to train and learn Heinze’s system.

Its key passes have decreased from 10 at Orlando and 13 against Chicago, to 8, 9 and 8 at New England, at Miami and against Montreal. That also coincides with the absences of Barco and Jurgen Damm in the past three games.

It produced 16 shot-creating actions against Montreal, 24 at Miami, 17 at New England, 33 against Chicago and 20 at Orlando in the season-opening game.

It has produced two goal-creating actions in each of the past three games against Montreal, Miami and New England.

Its expected goals have decreased from 1.7 at New England, to 1.3 against New England and Miami, to 0.9 against Montreal.

So, why is the offense struggling? What do those numbers reflect?

As noted, not having Barco and Damm obviously are affecting the offense. Both left the New England game. Barco’s dribbling in the middle of the field often creates free kicks, which is one of the best ways the team is producing goal-creating actions. Damm’s speed is something defenses must plan for.

Second, as noted by Joseph Lowery on MLSSoccer.com, teams are daring Atlanta United to break them down. “Atlanta have attempted the most passes per game this year when there are at least seven defenders behind the intended receiver.”

There aren’t many teams in any league that can break down a defense with that many players behind the ball.

A look at Atlanta United’s passing confirms it. It ranks third in MLS in total passing yards (49,717), but its distance of passing yards in the opponent’s third (13,906, or 28 percent) is less than the two teams it ranks behind in passing. San Jose has 15,642 passing yards in the final third from its 52,882 passing yards, or 29.6 percent). Sporting KC has 16,690 from 52,879, or 31.6 percent.

Doing so requires either a moment of individual brilliance, quick passing and movement off the ball, or pinpoint crosses.

Barco’s goal is the only moment of individual brilliance this season. The team doesn’t seem to want to pass and move right now, the exception being the goal against Montreal, and the crossing is hit or miss, often because the team doesn’t often put a lot of players in the penalty box. It has completed only 13 non-free kick crosses into the penalty box this season.

As Guzan said, one or two good chances here, or two good chances there.

“He’s preached to us that it will take time,” Hyndman said of Heinze. “If we go game to game, week by week and try to improve, that will make us better. The way we are working, I think we will.”

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Atlanta United’s 2021 MLS schedule

April 17 Atlanta United 0, Orlando 0

April 24 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 1

May 1 New England 2, Atlanta United 1

May 9 Atlanta United 1, Inter Miami 1,

May 15 Atlanta United 1, Montreal 0

May 23 at Seattle, 4:30 p.m., Fox