Oh, those economists.
They yammer incessantly that growth is good, growth is essential, growth is what it’s all about and that we need are policies that help the economy grow.
Then they turn around and say that growth is gonna kill you.
Well, not you.
At least, not necessarily you. Maybe.
Anyhow, that part of the story isn't actually new. Some years ago, the unfortunate and unexpected correlation was perhaps first noticed by Christopher Ruhm, at the time an economist with the University of North Carolina at Greensboro and the National Bureau of Economic Research.
He looked at the data and found that when the economy grows faster, mortality rates rose. And when there was a downturn, the pace of dying slowed.
Left the economists baffled, it did.
When the economy is improving, shouldn’t we be happier and healthier and all? When the economy turns down, isn’t that when mortality ought to be worse?
Now, a recently released study by a trio of economists concludes that there may indeed be reason to believe that death increases in times of strong growth.
The three – Adriana Lleras-Muney, an economics professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, Wei Huang of the National Bureau of Economic Research and David Cutler of Harvard – say they think that greater economic activity is linked to some things that cause more deaths:
— Pollution (Yes, they say, even in a less-industrial America – have you ever inhaled next to the Connector? Infants especially are vulnerable, as well as others who are frail).
— Stress (more work does that, and stress can be a killer).
— Alcohol and drug use (responses to that stress we mentioned, and that kind of self-medication can likewise be life-threatening).
— Risky behavior in general (you may be more inclined to hang-glide or rock-climb in the Alps if you have more money).
The study, which was reported in the Washington Post, does go on to say that really bad recessions are indeed worse for health. And they acknowledge that as good growth continues, it raises the level of healthcare and education and makes for longer life spans.
The appendix to the study is located here.
So your conclusions can depend on your horizon, they write.
Moreover, they go on to write, there’s not much question that an improving economy is good in the longer run: “Air pollution and alcohol consumption increase in booms. In contrast, booms in adolescence raise adult incomes and improve social relations and mental health, suggesting these mechanisms dominate in the long run.”
