The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results:
- Colquitt County punished McEachern 41-7 in one of the season’s highest rated matchups to raise Rush Propst’s record against the Indians to 3-0 and hand them their worst defeat of the last decade aside from the 2014 semifinal game where the Packers also dismantled McEachern, that time 57-20. The victory was impressive enough to elevate Colquitt County past idle Grayson into the number one spot in the state.
- Rome played a relatively close game with Marietta, downing the Blue Devils in a 51-41 shootout. Rome dropped into second place in Class AAAAA behind Buford, who’s rating improved following a 40-14 winner over perennial power Tucker.
- Clinch County limped to a lackluster 24-17 victory over heavy underdog Hebron Christian Academy, making room for Irwin County to move past them from third to first in the Class A Public ratings. Previously second ranked Macon County was shocked in a 41-0 loss to 23-point underdog Pelham.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 100.00%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 0 of 0 total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within --.-- points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Home Advantage: 0.77
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
