By late Saturday night, almost a full month before the SEC Championship game, both teams could be determined for the Dec. 1 matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The SEC East representative will be the winner of Georgia’s game at Kentucky on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m, CBS; News 95.5 and AM 750 WSB), while Alabama will clinch the SEC West berth if it wins at LSU on Saturday night.
The significance of those two SEC showdowns extends to the College Football Playoff selection committee, which ranked all four participants in the top 10 this week. Alabama is No. 1, LSU No. 3, Georgia No. 6 and Kentucky No. 9.
“Everybody says let’s expand the playoff to 16 teams, but this weekend is kind of the playoff going on early in front of our eyes,” Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl president Gary Stokan said.
He views Saturday’s games in Baton Rouge, La., and Lexington, Ky., as play-ins to Atlanta and views the SEC Championship game as a play-in to the playoff, which will set its four-team field Dec. 2.
The SEC title-game matchup won’t be fully set if Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC) loses to LSU (7-1, 4-1). In that case, LSU and Alabama would have one SEC loss each, the Tigers would hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Crimson Tide, and the West race would continue with two league games remaining for both teams.
But an Alabama win over LSU would decide the division because the Crimson Tide would hold a two-game lead over LSU, at least a two-game lead over Texas A&M and tiebreakers over both teams.
“I know and everybody knows how big this game is for the state of Louisiana, for our football team,” LSU coach Ed Orgeron said at his weekly news conference. “But I am not going to make it bigger than life.
“We’re not going to say it’s like every other game. We understand this is THE game,” Orgeron said. “There’s going to be an excitement in the air that’s going to be different for this game. That’s how it is, LSU versus Alabama.”
Georgia versus Kentucky has even clearer implications for the SEC Championship game: The winner, whichever team it is, punches its ticket. Both teams are 7-1 (5-1 SEC).
“It’s going to be a little bit of extra fire up under us because we know if we lose this game, then we’re not playing in Atlanta,” Georgia wide receiver Jeremiah Holloman said. “And we definitely want to go back to Atlanta this year.”
“I’d say that’s all the motivation we need for this weekend,” UGA tight end Isaac Nauta said.
Kentucky, seeking its first trip to the SEC title game since the event started in 1992, has impressed the playoff committee with “quality wins” over Florida and Mississippi State and “outstanding defense,” committee chairman Rob Mullens said.
“Their only loss is to a CFP-ranked team (No. 20 Texas A&M) in overtime,” said Mullens, the athletic director at Oregon. “Kentucky has a quality resume.”
Two SEC teams are going to give their resumes a notable boost Saturday.
On to the rest of our weekly update of college football’s road to the playoff:
PLAYOFF MOVERS?
These games Saturday also merit keeping an eye on for possible impact on the playoff picture:
No. 4 Notre Dame at Northwestern, which is on a four-game winning streak; No. 5 Michigan at home vs. No. 14 Penn State; No. 7 Oklahoma at Texas Tech; and No. 8 Washington State at home vs. California, which is coming off an upset win over Washington.
A LONG WAY TO GO
If you’re wondering how much credence to give this week’s playoff rankings, consider: Based on the CFP’s brief history, it’s 50-50 whether a team in the top four of the selection committee’s initial rankings winds up making the playoff.
Of the 16 teams ranked in the first top four the past four seasons, eight made the playoffs. That includes three of four last year, two of four in 2016, two of four in 2015 and one of four in 2014.
But history bodes better for Alabama and No. 2 Clemson: Both were in the initial top four each of the past three seasons, and both reached the playoff each time.
EXPERT WITNESSES
Two SEC East coaches were asked on a media teleconference what they expect from Georgia-Kentucky:
> Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason: “You’re going to see a great football game. To me, I think it’s going to be a better matchup than people expect. Whoever wins this game is going to win by a possession. It’s going to be a three- or seven-point ballgame.”
> Florida coach Dan Mullen: “Two very good football teams. (Kentucky has) a very veteran lineup, a very experienced group. I’m not surprised with the success they’re having this year. And obviously Georgia has got a talented group that has played in a bunch of big games. So it should be an interesting game.”
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