There are 14 teams in the SEC. There is a large handful of those teams that have title aspirations in 2017.
But, according to one metric described by SB Nation’s Bud Elliott, there are four, and only four, SEC teams that have a chance to win the College Football Playoff National Championship and lift the gold trophy at season’s end.
Those SEC teams are: Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Auburn.
That prediction relies on a stat called the Blue-Chip Ratio, which takes the percentage of a team’s roster who were 4 or 5-star recruits.
“It boils down to teams that sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars, over the previous four recruiting classes,” Elliott says. “That’s an exclusive club, usually consisting of the top 10 percent of FBS programs.”
All of the national champs over the last decade-plus have accomplished it, and often, the team taking home the trophy has signed many more elite players.
Here’s a breakdown, from Elliott, of the only 10 teams in 2017 whose Blue-Chip Ratio is more than 50 percent. Essentially, he says these teams are who only ones who can win a ring this season.
Recent national champions have varied in how far above the 50 percent threshold they have been in the blue-chip ratio. 2017 champ Clemson was 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes. 2015 Alabama was 77 percent. 2014 Ohio State was 68 percent. And 2013 Florida State was 53 percent.
With four on this year’s list, the SEC leads all conferences. Elliott gave a couple of notes on some of the conference’s teams with a chance this year.
Bama’s 80 percent blue-chip ratio is “the highest I’ve seen since I began publishing this piece.” And Georgia has lept into the top-five entering this year thanks to some serious work on the recruiting trail by its second-year head coach. “Kirby Smart inherited a good roster from Mark Richt, but his first two classes are humming at 74 percent, while Richt’s final two were at 53. It’s not yet known if Smart can coach, but Georgia’s talent is being upgraded.”
So, SEC fans, do you think this stat will hold true in 2017-18, or will an outside team make a surprising run?
The post One simple stat says only 4 SEC teams have a shot to win the national championship this year appeared first on SEC Country.
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