FiveThirtyEight predicts TCU to miss playoff for Ohio State if both win Saturday

TCU will have the chance to win its second Big 12 title on Saturday since joining the conference in 2012.

The No. 11 Horned Frogs’ College Football Playoff hopes took a major hit in a 38-20 loss at Oklahoma on Nov. 11, but the team could re-enter the conversation on Saturday if they beat the No. 3 Sooners in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game rematch.

But even if ultimate chaos prevails on Saturday, some expect TCU to miss the playoff for the same team that crushed the Horned Frogs’ playoff hopes in 2014 on championship weekend.

If TCU and No. 8 Ohio State both win their conference title games on Saturday — knocking off Oklahoma and No. 4 Wisconsin, respectively — Ohio State could once again get the nod for the last playoff spot over the Horned Frogs if it comes down to two 2-loss conference champions.

FiveThirtyEight projected that Ohio State and TCU wins would send the Buckeyes and No. 5 Alabama into the playoff spots currently occupied by Oklahoma and Wisconsin, leaving the Horned Frogs on the outside once again.

TCU was given a 20 percent shot at the playoff opposed to a 75 percent chance for Ohio State in the scenario. Alabama, despite not having the chance to play on Saturday, was given a 50 percent chance at the playoff — the fourth highest of any team — if both the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes win.

An additional Pac-12 title defeat for two-loss USC on Dec. 1 still wouldn’t do much help for TCU. While the Horned Frogs’ playoff chances rose to 25 percent in that hypothetical, so did the chances for the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide.

Even a two-loss Clemson ACC runner-up was given a better chance than a two-loss Big 12 champion TCU at the playoff coupled with an Ohio State win, per FiveThirtyEight.

For Horned Frogs fans, Ohio State winning the Big Ten title only brings back bad memories.

TCU was ranked No. 3 heading into final weekend of the 2014 regular season. The Horned Frogs posted a 55-3 win over Iowa State that weekend, but a 59-0 victory for Ohio State over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game moved the Buckeyes into the top four as the Horned Frogs fell to No. 6. Ohio State went on to win the national title.

The post FiveThirtyEight predicts TCU to miss playoff for Ohio State if both win Saturday appeared first on Diehards.

Support real journalism. Support local journalism. Subscribe to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution today. See offers.

Your subscription to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution funds in-depth reporting and investigations that keep you informed. Thank you for supporting real journalism.

X