FiveThirtyEight: Oklahoma-TCU most crucial of this weekend’s matchups

Saturday’s showdown between No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 6 TCU could very well determine a spot in the Big 12 title game. But the implications go far beyond that.

FiveThirty’s Neil Paine assesses that Oklahoma-TCU is the most important of this weekend’s college football games with regard to the College Football Playoff. In a weekend featuring three top-10 matchups for the first time since 2002, the Big 12 is in the spotlight. FiveThirtyEight’s projection model gave the contest a total swing, meaning the average impact on team’s chances of making the playoff, of 44.3 percent.

Oklahoma sees its playoff chances increase 16.7 percent with a victory and fall 26.5 percent with a loss for an average of 20.5 percent. TCU’s odds go up 23.5 percent if the Horned Frogs win and down 14.8 percent if they lose, an 18.2-percent average. Notre Dame and Ohio State also see an average swing of over 1 percent depending on the result. In total, the averages equate to 44.3 percent.

That’s narrowly ahead of No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Miami, with a swing of 43.4 percent. That’s partially because Oklahoma-TCU is arguably the weekend’s only true playoff elimination game. Losing Saturday would give either the Sooners or the Horned Frogs their second loss, and no two-loss team has made the playoff. The weekend’s other marquee matchups include either an undefeated team or a team that already has its second loss.

The pressure is on for both teams ahead of Saturday’s game in Norman, Okla. The Sooners enter with the nation’s top offense, while TCU has the No. 6 scoring defense in the country. In a game with massive implications, both teams will bring their best.

The post FiveThirtyEight: Oklahoma-TCU most crucial of this weekend’s matchups appeared first on Diehards.

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