Kentucky vs. Louisville is a fairly new rivalry game by college football standards, having taken place only 34 times ever. Known as the Governor’s Cup rivalry, it started back in 1912, but from 1923-1993, the Wildcats and Cardinals didn’t meet on the gridiron.
Since 1994, though, the game has been played every year. Currently, Kentucky holds a 19-15 edge in the game and is on a 4-game winning streak against Louisville.
Will that change this year? Let’s dive into some of the betting trends for Saturday’s big SEC-ACC rivalry game.
Kentucky vs. Louisville Betting Lines
Here are the odds for the Governor’s Cup as of Tuesday afternoon:
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | +7 (-110) | O 50.5 (-110) | +230 |
| Louisville | -7 (-110) | U 50.5 (-110) | -280 |
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Kentucky Betting Trends
- Kentucky is 5-6 against the spread this season
- The over is 7-4 in Kentucky games this season
- Kentucky is 2-2 against the spread on the road this season
- Kentucky is 0-4 against the spread as the underdog this season
Louisville Betting Trends
- Louisville is 6-4-1 against the spread this season
- The over is 5-6 in Louisville games this season
- Louisville is 5-1 against the spread at home this season
- Failed to cover in its most recent home game vs. Virginia
- 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season
- Louisville is 4-4-1 against the spread as the favorite
What can we glean from these betting trends? One thing that sticks out to me is that Kentucky is 0-4 against the spread this year as a road underdog. That’s, shall we say, not good. Meanwhile, Louisville is 5-1 at home against the spread in 2023 and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
We’ll give out our best bet at the end of this article, but keep those above trends in mind.
Kentucky vs. Louisville Havoc Rate
A “havoc” play is a play in which the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.
For defenses, the higher the havoc rate the better. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what “havoc” the offense allowed the defense to create. Therefore, on that side, a lower havoc rate is better for the offense.
- Kentucky offensive havoc rate: 18% (24th percentile)
- Louisville defensive havoc rate: 20% (88th percentile)
Kentucky has made too many mistakes offensively this year, and Louisville’s defense is good enough to make that worrisome trend for the Wildcats continue.
- Louisville offensive havoc rate: 15% (63rd percentile)
- Kentucky defensive havoc rate: 16% (36th percentile)
Louisville is ... fine ... when it comes to not allowing defenses to create havoc. Being in the 63rd percentile is nothing to write home about, but it’s in the top half of the nation. Meanwhile, Kentucky’s defense is having a down year by its standards. This is yet another area where Louisville has an advantage.
Kentucky vs. Louisville Best Bet
There are simply too many signs that Louisville is the better team. The Cardinals are 10-1 and a top-10 team in the College Football Playoff rankings. They still have an outside shot to make the Playoff. Yes, a lot of chaos would have to happen, but this is college football after all.
Mark Stoops has certainly had Louisville’s number the last 4 years, but things appear to be different for the Cardinals under first-year coach Jeff Brohm. He’s got the Cardinals in position to win the ACC title and should be a strong candidate for Coach of the Year awards. But before postseason accolades begin, Brohm must stop this losing skid against the Cardinals’ biggest rivals.
Every sign points to Kentucky being a bad road team and Louisville being a great home team. Strange things happen in rivalry games, but when all is said and done, expect the Cardinals to finish the regular season 11-1 with a strong cover against their rivals.
Best Bet: Louisville -7
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