The AJC-SPIA Poll was conducted Aug. 26 to Sept. 4 and included a total of 1,020 likely general election voters in Georgia. Likely voters were respondents who had voted in the 2018 May primaries and/or the 2016 general election, who indicated they were currently registered to vote in Georgia, and were definitely or probably going to vote in the 2018 November election.
The survey was administered by the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia.
Interviews were conducted in English. A dual-frame statewide random sample consisting of approximately 69 percent cellphone numbers and 31 percent landline numbers was obtained through Self Made Insights Co. (SMI is a sampling vendor that maintains a database constructed from state voter registration lists. Through commercial sources, phone numbers have been appended to the individual records (registrants) that make up these lists).
The survey results were weighted using iterative proportional ranking in order to ensure the sample was representative of the 2018 midterm electorate in terms of race, sex and age.
The calculated margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. This would mean that if 50 percent of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95 percent confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 53.1 percent and 46.9 percent. In 2014, turnout in the general election in Georgia equated to 42.9 percent of the total electorate (measured as the number of registered voters).
Starting with this survey, the SPIA Survey Research Center has implemented a verification policy. Before results for any head-to-head election matchup are released to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution they are corroborated by an outside entity. More specifically, the outside entity replicates our reported results for any head-to-head races and confirms they match. For this survey, the results we report for the gubernatorial election were verified by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Va.
The difference between Brian Kemp’s estimated vote share and Stacey Abram’s estimated vote share, at 0.40 percent, is not statistically significant. In plain English, the gubernatorial race is currently a tie.
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