Monday, Oct. 7, 2013 | 7:44 p.m.
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Posted: 5:24 p.m. Wednesday, June 26, 2013
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Set your watches. Democrats in this state have five years to get their act together, or risk remaining non-ciphers in Georgia’s political life until long after many of us are dead and gone.
So ruled the U.S. Supreme Court this week.
Specifically, the high court’s 5-4 vote to neutralize the toughest (and among some, hated) portion of the Voting Rights Act puts extreme pressure on Democrats to win back the Governor’s Mansion in 2018.
Georgia Republicans, meanwhile, will do everything in their power – now enhanced by the high court — to keep that from happening. Or make a loss of the governor’s office in Georgia irrelevant.
Allow me to explain.
Until Monday, any changes in election law in Georgia and eight other states (plus portions of seven others) had to receive “pre-clearance” from the U.S. Justice Department before those laws could be enforced. In the South, the requirements of Section 5 were a 48-year payment for the sins of Jim Crow.
As Chief Justice John Roberts explained, the ruling did not overturn “pre-clearance” requirements. But until Congress updated its justification for subjecting selected states for federal oversight – citing current circumstances rather than historical accounts of poll taxes and water hoses — Section 5 should not be enforced, the justices ruled.
For the moment, many are pretending that this might actually happen. “Congress must find a way to come together, make smart decisions for the well-being of our citizenry, and rework the current formula to get it right,” U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, R-Gainesville, said in a statement.
“I know that there will be an effort in the civil rights and voting rights community to get Congress to take action,” said Laughlin McDonald, director emeritus of the ACLU’s Voting Rights Project. He’s been litigating voting rights cases from Atlanta since the early 1970s.
But beyond Congress’ reputation as a bottomless well of low expectations, there are two problems. First, to revise any list of states subjected to federal scrutiny would be tantamount to creating a new list of racially backward states.
Not going to happen.
There’s a reason that in 2006 Congress approved a 25-year extension of the Voting Rights Act– without opening that particular can of worms.
Just as important is the fact that, since the Voting Rights Act was first passed in 1965, the center of gravity of the Republican party has shifted from the Midwest to the Deep South. And most white Southerners, now largely Republican, are done with penance.
The Supreme Court’s decision “guarantees that Georgia will be treated like every other state — a right we have earned,” Gov. Nathan Deal said. Deal, a resident of Gainesville, lives in Collins’ district.
Since 2011, when the Legislature last redrew Georgia’s political boundaries, Republicans in the state Capitol have made a concerted effort to rein in Democratic (and African-American) political authority in Georgia’s urban centers. Witness the redistricting recently imposed on the Fulton County Commission, and the consolidation of Bibb County and the city of Macon. These moves, apparently, may no longer be subject to federal review.
More low-level efforts are likely. “I’m not saying the Supreme Court gave them a road map, but it gave them an easier avenue to do things we’ve been able to counter in the past,” said state Rep. Calvin Smyre, D-Columbus.
But for Democrats, the real crisis will come in 2021, after the next census, when congressional and state legislative lines will again be adjusted for population shifts. That sounds far away, but it’s not. And it will be a ruthless affair.
The demographics of Georgia, all parties agree, have begun to list toward the Democratic side. The pool of white voters is shrinking, and the number of non-white voters is growing. And for better or ill, politics in the South is defined by race.
Consider this line from Fulton County’s now-moot objection to the redistricting plan imposed by the Legislature, filed with the U.S. Justice Department: “Voting in Fulton County, Georgia is racially polarized to an extreme degree. In 24 of the 25 elections examined, black and white voters preferred different candidates. The average difference in their preferences was 73 percent.”
But change isn’t likely to come as quickly as Democrats want. If they want any say in the next redistricting, which will set Georgia’s political landscape through 2030, their best shot remains winning the race for governor five years hence.
Republicans control two-thirds of the state Senate and are one vote shy of a super-majority in the House. They have five years to boost and protect their majorities – without federal supervision. They’re certain to use them.
Just in case they need to override a Democratic governor’s veto.
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