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Mark Bradley

Posted: 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2013

A sobering October forecast for the Braves 

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Gattis
Lynne Sladky
The Braves do have a statistical edge at folk hero.

By Mark Bradley

The Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball and should clinch the National League East -- the magic number is seven -- within a week. That said, some baseball men (all unnamed) told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN that the Braves' chances to win the World Series are, shall we say, less than prime.

The headline on Crasnick's story: "Postseason might not be a fun time for the Braves."Three anonymous quotes support that contention.

The first, from an American League scout: "They're built for the regular season, but if I were them I'd be really scared about the postseason. They don't manufacture runs. Lots of swings and misses. They're good against No. 4-5 starters, but you don't face a lot of those guys in the playoffs."

The second, from a National League scout: "I don't think you'll find many people who'll pick the Braves to win this league."

The third, from someone identified as "a scout": "They have a lot of middle-in hitters who handle average pitching very well and struggle against good pitching. Anybody that can command the fastball down and away will beat the Braves."

Crasnick -- who's both a good writer and an good guy -- offers evidentiary bits to back his premise. Chief among them is that the Braves really haven't seen much top-shelf pitching. Writes Crasnick:

They played the Dodgers seven times this season and never faced Clayton Kershaw. They played Pittsburgh seven times and never saw Francisco Liriano. And in a combined 34 games against Miami and the New York Mets, they've seen Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey a grand total of twice. (They're scheduled to encounter Fernandez again Wednesday.)

He totals up how the Braves have fared against 14 "pitchers who would generally qualify as elite" and finds that they're Braves are 6-14 with 194 strikeouts in 173 2/3 innings. The ERA of those 14 pitchers against the Braves -- 2.23.

And you can't really argue with those numbers. (That's the thing about numbers -- they are, er, facts.) You can, however, note that nobody does very well against elite pitchers. That's why they're elite.

But my intent isn't to go point-by-counterpoint. Baseball men are entitled to their opinions, and baseball men tend to be as passionate in their beliefs as we writers. Still, baseball men would be the first to concede that perceptions count for nothing once October arrives. Because, as baseball men are forever reminding us, October is a crap shoot. Once you're there, anything can happen. And the Braves will be there.

 

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Mark Bradley

About Mark Bradley

Has worked for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution for more than 25 years. Has won some awards but lost many more.

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