Three months ago, I’d have said Alabama would win by 2 1/2 touchdowns. (In fact, I did say it -- on the Sunday before Memorial Day.) A month ago, when it appeared Johnny Manziel might not be playing, I’d have said Alabama would win by five touchdowns. Today, Johnny Football having dispensed with his laughable one-half suspension, I’m wondering if Texas A&M might actually prevail.

And then I think: Nah.

Bama is favored by seven or eight points on the road. The only thing that gives me pause is that, having seen the Tide do next to nothing against Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome, I wonder if Alabama and its reconfigured offensive line can score enough points to win a shootout. And then I remember that the Aggies will be working against the Tide’s defense, and I figure Bama will be just fine.

If we return to Nov. 10, 2012, the day A&M upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa and Johnny Football won his Heisman, we’ll note that the Aggies stole a march on Nick Saban’s men, which not many teams ever do. But Alabama was coming off a last-gasp victory over LSU in Baton Rouge, and even the world’s most driven human wasn’t able to ward off the inevitable lull. By the time Bama roused itself, it trailed 20-0.

And it still it roused itself, pulling within three points after three quarters and drawing within sight of the winning touchdown near the end. But Alabama failed inside the A&M 10 – yes, occasionally Bama messes up, too – and its unbeaten season was gone. But not, as we know, its shot at a second consecutive title.

Alabama had a week off after managing just 206 total yards against Virginia Tech. Usually I’m less than moved by the teams-coming-off-a-bye-are-tough-to-beat dynamic, but the thought of Saban having two weeks to teach and preach and glower – a press briefing in Tuscaloosa early last week was epic in its dourness – is tough to dismiss.

The Aggies are way better than Virginia Tech on offense. Last November, they finished with 29 points and 418 yards on a day when Alabama made three turnovers. (Georgia would have 28 and 394 in the SEC championship game; Bama had two turnovers that day.) That’s a big yield against the Tide, but how much of that was due to the surprise factory of A&M, new to the SEC, and how much to Alabama’s LSU hangover? Enough to make a difference in the outcome, I’d submit.

There will be no surprise this time. No hangover, either. Alabama has been pointing toward A&M for a long time. (When you lose as seldom as the Tide, the defeats come to resonate more than the victories.) I think the Aggies and Manziel will make it interesting – Johnny Football is nothing if not fascinating – but I think Alabama wins in College Station without undue stress.

Make it Alabama 34, A&M 17. Yes, I’m still saying 2 1/2 touchdowns.

From myajc.com: Bama doesn't dominate, and still it wins 35-10.

Also from myajc.com: A half-baked suspension for Johnny Football.

From Memorial Day weekend: Pigskin picks - Tech goes 8-4; UGA wins SEC East.