From now until the NBA trade deadline, Josh Smith will be the subject of much discussion and many rumors. He can become an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, and there’s a chance the Atlanta Hawks will deal him by Feb. 21 just so they won’t be left with nothing come July. But the guess here is that Smith will remain a Hawk as of Feb. 22, and maybe for many years more.

For the Hawks to trade Smith now would make sense only if they believe they can receive major long-term assets in return. By shedding Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams last July, they’ve already dumped enough salary to make themselves a major player for free agents. They don’t need to jettison Smith for the sake of cap relief. Indeed, there’s a tangible reason for them to hang on until summer.

A free agent’s current team can offer him more money and more contractual seasons than can any outside suitor. Smith has said he feels he’s worth the maximum. The Hawks might agree. Then again, they might not.

Danny Ferry, the Hawks’ general manager, offered this boilerplate declaration Monday: “Our focus continues to be on building the Atlanta Hawks, and not just for next seasons but for many seasons.” This would seem to suggest that he’s open to any and all offers but not so desperate he feels a need to do anything anytime soon.

On the job not quite eight months, Ferry has positioned this team nicely. The Hawks can afford to keep Smith and perhaps add a big-ticket free agent to boot. If he chooses to leave, they can go buy somebody to take his place. No, there’s no guarantee anyone of consequence, Smith included, will agree to take the Hawks’ money, but it’s far better to be able to open the corporate wallet than to subsist on mid-level exceptions.

The odds of getting full value for Smith, who could be just a three-month rental for the acquiring team, are slim. Given that the Hawks are sixth in the East, it would make no sense to dump their leading scorer for expiring contracts -- because who knows what could happen in the playoffs? (Besides, the NBA East is so thin at the bottom that the Hawks could dump Smith and still not fall into the lottery.)

It’s possible some wheezing power could see Smith as the missing piece in a run to the NBA finals, but what team might that be? The Celtics? They need a replacement for Rajon Rondo, not Rondo’s former Oak Hill roommate. The Lakers? They’ve got too many big names and big egos as is. And here we move to the bigger issue, which is:

Just how good is Josh Smith, really?

He’s about to complete his ninth NBA season. He has never been an All-Star. How many players get substantially better in Year 10 and beyond? Is he a major talent? Absolutely. Could he be the third-best player on a championship-level team? Probably. Could he be the second-best player on a championship-level team? Probably not.

If ever Smith were going to realize his vast potential, this figured to be the season. Johnson was gone, meaning there could be no more Iso-Joes, and the Hawks had gotten smaller and quicker, which should have played to Smith’s strengths. He’s averaging 1.9 fewer points and 1.1 fewer rebounds than he did last season, and his shooting percentage is the lowest since 2007. His free-throw percentage (49.7) is the worst of his career.

He’s tied for 33^rd in the NBA in scoring, for 22^nd in rebounding. Are those All-Star numbers? If you’re a fan of advanced analytics, you’ve doubtless noted that Smith’s PER rating – developed by John Hollinger, PER stands for personal efficiency rating – is 17.49. That’s down from 21.14 last season. Per Hollinger, 15.00 is the league average, while 17.49 doesn’t even qualify for “solid second option” status.

To do anything of consequence, the Hawks must find a first option. Smith hasn’t proved he can be one, and surely the rest of the NBA has noticed. More than a few teams could use Smith’s services, but how many see him as – apologies to Allen Iverson – The Answer? And how does his current employer, which had to suspend him for a game last month, truly feel?

Zach Lowe of Grantland recently examined 10 possible destinations for Smith, Houston being the most likely, before concluding that Smith will wind up re-signing with the Hawks. All things considered, that could be the most profitable course for him. What’s unclear is whether the new GM sees Smith, who was drafted by Billy Knight in June 2004, as a part of the Hawks’ future or a remnant of its past. What's unclear is if Ferry will regard keeping Smith as a luxury, as opposed to a necessity.